Season Preview: Houston Astros

Well we've got 19 days left until Opening Day, which means it's season preview time. We'll be running it down team by team, with an added new wrinkle this time around: the beer of choice for fans of the team to enjoy whilst watching their team take the field! Nothing like that to help get you through a baseball season, especially if you're from Pittsburgh. Up next: the Houston Astros.


Lineup: Things could get ugly here. Carlos Lee is still decent, but he's clearly on the decline phase of his career. Lance Berkman could have a Hall of Fame case if he hangs around for a few more years - and his production isn't exactly slowing - but he's had injury woes of late, which are only exacerbated by his recent knee surgery that will likely make him miss opening day. Hunter Pence is the only guy outside of those two whom we feel comfortable describing as "above-average," and that's a problem. Up the middle, CF Michael Bourn is fast, which is nice, but Kaz Matsui and Tommy Manzella (Tulane!) are one of the weakest-hitting double play combos in MLB, and J.R. Towles, while once a shining prospect behind the plate, hasn't done much in somewhat limited PAs at the big-league level. Pedro Feliz is a horrendous hitter - which surprised us, but consider (1) that his OPS has decreased every year since the high-water mark in 1999 (.793) and was nearly 100 points lower last season (.694) and (2) that his career OBP is .293 - and hasn't been great shakes with the glove of late, which used to be his calling card. To make matters worse, this team is paper thin at all positions; Jason Michaels is the primary backup at all three outfield spots, Jeff Keppinger is next in line at SS and 2B, and Geoff Blum would get the call if either Feliz or Berkman go down. Yikes.


Rotation: Well, there's at least some hope to be had here. Not much, mind you, but some. Roy Oswalt seems to have been wearing down over the past few seasons, and isn't much above-average at this point even if he can stay healthy. Wandy Rodriguez is the real ace here, as he put together an excellent season last year and is young enough to keep improving...but we don't think we can handle one of the better pitchers in the division being named 'Wandy.' Behind him is Brett Myers, who has, if nothing else, a big name and a World Series ring, and Felipe Paulino and Bud Norris, a couple of young strikeout maestros with the potential for a big 2010. But, again, depth is a problem; Brian Moehler is listed at the 6th starter. Guhhh.


Bullpen: Matt Lindstrom can get K's with the best of them, and Brandon Lyon will do his best to justify his outlandish $15MM contract. He won't justify it, of course, because he's not very good, but he'll at least try. We assume. Bridging the gap to those 8th and 9th innings are...Jesse Fulchino? Tim Byrdak? Alberto Arias? Chris Sampson? Our eyes!


Overall: The fact that we ended the preceding paragraphs with 'Yikes,' 'Guhhh,' and 'Our eyes!' should tell you a lot about the overall outlook of this team. The only way that they avoid being utter laughingstocks is if every single starter is healthy for the entire season. Which surely happens all the time, right?


Predicted Record: 70-92, 5th place NL Central. Hmm. Apparently it doesn't happen all the time.


Beer: Lone Star. Calling itself 'The National Beer of Texas,' Lone Star is for the deluded Texan who (a) counts Texas as a nation and (b) thinks the Astros have a shot. So...Ed Wade.

Here's Looking At: David Ortiz

We had a lot of fun with the last HLA: post on Matt Holliday, so we decided we wanted to do one about David Ortiz now.  If you're reading this blog and don't know who Ortiz is, it's time to stop reading.  Oh, no, come back here - we need you.  Anyway, if you know Ortiz, you probably also know that he's been struggling mightily this year.  How mightily, you might ask?  Let us tell you!

David Ortiz, 2009: .208/.318/.300, 0 HR, 20 BB, 30 K, 13.3 BB%, 23.1 K%, 0 HR/FB%.

David Ortiz, career: .285/.380/.547, 13.5 BB%, 21.1 K%, 18.7 HR/FB%.

Obviously, the number that jumps out here is that 0 HR (or, if you're REALLY a stat nerd, the 0 HR/FB%).  Papi was one of the most feared sluggers in the league as early as two years ago, and was even in the upper tier last year, with a .914 second-half OPS.  So why the sudden dropoff?  Well, for one thing, guys like him don't age well.  Big bodies with long, powerful swings can be effective during their peaks and not long before or after.  See also: Howard, Ryan (didn't get called up until he was 27 because he couldn't put it together in the minors); Vaughn, Mo (cooked at 34); and Fielder, Cecil (cooked at 33).  Honestly, the Mo Vaughn comp is something we've been using forever with Ortiz - they have similar body types, they're both lefty sluggers who played in Boston, and they couldn't field a lick. They're fun while they last, but unfortunately they don't last long - usually, they fall off the table around the age of 33.  Let's take a look at Ortiz's comparable players and see if we can discern anything from there.  Similarly scores are in parentheses.  The higher, the more similar.

1. Lance Berkman (907): Was still going strong last year, but has fallen off the table this year.  And guess what?  He's 33!  We have hopes that Berkman's going to rebound, because he's a better athlete than Ortiz and some of the guys on the list, but maybe he's done, too.

2. Richie Sexson (883): Was terrible last year at the age of - you guessed it - 33.  Hasn't played this year, and may be out of baseball.

3. Paul Konerko (882): We were surprised to see Konerko on this list.  Konerko was a much earlier bloomer than Ortiz, and has never really had the kind of eye-popping year that Ortiz has.  In any event, Paulie looked like he might be done after last year, when he was 32, but he's rebounded nicely so far.

4. Derrek Lee (875): Another surprising comp.  Lee had one great year in 2005, and while he's been above-average forever, he's never really showed 54-HR pop like Ortiz.  But, more importantly, he's been awful this year, some of which may be attributable to a nagging neck injury.  And yet...this is his age 33 season...

5. Mo Vaughn (874): We were surprised he was so low on the list.  Vaughn, as mentioned before, was done being a productive player at 34.  

6. Hal Trosky (871): This one isn't really fair.  Trosky was enormously productive up until his age-28 season at which point he left to fight in WWII.  He came back for a year in 1944, at 31, and was pretty bad, and then was even worse when he took another year off in '45, slugging .334 as a 33 year old.

7. Danny Tartabull (861): Out of the majors at 34 after posting a decent enough age-33 campaign.  Tartabull, however, was a right fielder, so his body probably took more abuse than Ortiz's.  This may be as much health-related as it is declining skills - but either way, done at 34.

8. Carlos Lee (859): Run for the hills, Astros fans!  Your two best hitters are on this list.  El Caballo's 33 now...but he looks like he's going to put up his usual .300/.340/.500 and 30 tater tots, so he may be exempt from this list of doomed ballplayers.

9. Ryan Klesko (855): Played until he was 36, but wasn't useful after a mildly successful age-34 campaign.  Mitigating factor, though: he played out the last productive years of his career in PETCO Park, which may have aided in killing his power.

10. Cecil Fielder (848): Another fat DH, Fielder was out of baseball at 34, but was barely slugging .400 as a 33-year old.  

Our prognosis: Ortiz's comp list is loaded with guys who fell off the table earlier than most.  His bat has slowed, and while some of it may be related to the tendon sheath injury from last year, we think it's more than likely that he's just got OGS (either O.G. Status or Old Guy Syndrome; with Papi, it may be both).  We think his power is gone, and while he can still get on base - note the .318 OBP despite a .200 BA - he's never going to really hit like he has in the past.  Our official prediction is that Ortiz - barring a steroid-related resurgence - will be out of baseball after next year.  His contract is up after 2010, and we're certain that his skills will have eroded at least to the point where the Sox won't pick up the $12.5 million option for 2011 and probably to the point where other teams won't want him.