Season Preview: Texas Rangers

Just two days remain til Opening Day, and they are a Friday and Saturday, respectively. Which is pretty sweet. Anyway - lineup, pitchers, record, beer. It's not quite GTL, but it'll have to do. Up next: the Texas Rangers


Lineup: Let's start with the outfield. Julio Borbon is getting a chance to put his wheels to work as the full-time center fielder; best case is that he hits for average and gets on base well while stealing plenny bases. Flanking him  are Josh Hamilton, whose talent and injury history are well documented, and Nelson Cruz, who possesses a great power-speed combo. Cruz, though, will have to overcome what we're sure is an enormous mental hurdle in order to perform despite incessant ridicule from his teammates about his appearance in ESPN Magazine's Body issue. Oh, and Vlad Guerrero could see some time out here - though we'll have to, like, light a candle for him, since we're fairly sure that anything beyond DHing would straight up break him at this point. David Murphy is a decent backup, though. As for the infield, Michael Young posted his best season in years while transitioning to third base; his replacement, Elvis Andrus, wasn't much with the stick (though he's barely legal to drink), but was a 3-win player based on his strong defense. Andrus' double play partner is one of the best second basegentlemen in the league; Ian Kinsler has an above-average power/speed combo (we feel like this word gets thrown around a lot with the Rangers) for anyone, let alone someone manning the keystone. Chris Davis will get another shot at the first base job; he has mammoth power, but his contact skills are, to put it very charitably, lacking. Best case for him is a .260 average to accompany his 45 tater tots - and he's going to have to approach the best case in order to stave off Justin Smoak. Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden are a catching duo that has underwhelmed to this point, but Salty still has time to make good on his top prospect status, and Tegarden is a defensive whiz - which helps compensate for his below-average bat.

Rotation: This could either be a very strong or a very weak group. Yay firm predictions! Scott Feldman's peripherals suggest that he was far better than his poor ERA suggested, and Rich Harden could put together an enormous season if he stays healthy. Which we're pretty sure is verbatim what every single baseball scribe has written about him since he broke into the league. Ugh. And if the organization is serious about converting C.J. Wilson to the rotation - a decision we simply cannot support - then he'll be the number three starter. He could be decent, we suppose, but he's blocking the far more talented Neftali Feliz. Rounding out the rotation are Colby Lewis - Carson Cistulli's cause celebre - for whom we have high hopes and southpaw Matt Harrison, who could easily be a league average sort of gentleman. Plus with Feliz and assorted other young talent potentially ready to step in, there's plenty of depth for an already talented group.

Bullpen: Finishing games is what Frank Francisco does, and he does it pretty well. He'll be the closer this season, provided he manages to refrain from decking another fan with a thrown folding chair. Neftali Feliz, injustice though it may be, will likely be joining Francisco as a late-inning guy, and should be just as electric as he was last season. Darren Oliver was great for the Angels last season, but he's nearly twice as old as us and doesn't do as well against lefty hitters as you'd expect from a southpaw. Chris Ray is the former Baltimore closer, who had electric stuff prior to Tommy John surgery. Regaining his control has been a struggle, but he's a guy to keep your eye on. Darren O'Day and Dustin Nippert present little in the way of things to complain about; they're perfectly serviceable guys to chew up some innings here and there. Good group overall.

Overall: This is the year that most people predicted the Rangers would be in competition, though this squad surprised most people by being neck and neck with the Angels throughout most of 2009. They're improved, for sure, but the lineup doesn't have much depth and we have our concerns about the young pitchers holding up during what should be a season-long divisional dogfight. They're probably a better team than the Mariners overall - and certainly so when accounting for the wealth of young talent in the farm system - but for some reason we think the M's are juuust going to squeak out the divisional title.

Predicted Record: 85-77, 2nd place AL West

Beer: Shiner Bock. Shiner Bock is a beer that seems to aspire to the darkness of a true bock, but doesn't quite get there - it's far less full-bodied than most bocks, but is still delicious. Similarly, the Rangers are a team that has realistic championship aspirations, but they're not quite on the level of the Big Eastern Three. Both Shiner and the Rangers have come upon a winning formula - Shiner makes a tasty beer, and the Rangers develop phenomenal talent - but it's going to be another year before the Rangers are a serious World Series contender, and it'll take some recipe changes before Shiner Bock becomes a real Bock.

MLB Jam: Bracket and AL Round 1

Perhaps because we have entirely too much time on our hands or perhaps because, hey, who doesn't like brackets?, we've now made a bracket for the MLB Jam business we've been bandying on about around these parts. Seeding was determined based on the team's performance relative to their league; the Yankees, for example, are the 1 seed in the AL because they had the AL's best record. Oh, and they get a bye (as do the Angels) because there're 14 teams in the American League for reasons unbeknownst to us...but at least it's easier to make brackets for 14 and 16 team leagues instead of 15. Yikes. Can you even imagine? And then, of course, we're going to play out this imaginary tournament. Because that's how committed we are to our readers (especially the one from Korea! Hi!). Here're the AL's first 6 games, after which our shiny new bracket will be unveiled! Rules: games to 21, 2's and 3's, win by 2, call your own fouls. Whee!

Game 1: (8) Tampa Bay Rays vs. (9) Chicago White Sox
The players:  Carl Crawford/Jeff Niemann vs. Brent Lillibridge and John Danks

It looks like this game features an egregious underseed in the Rays, who boast the athleticism of Carl Crawford and the 6'9''-ism of Jeff Niemann. Anyway, Niemann should easily handle Danks down low, but Lillibridge's strategy of falling over and calling a foul every time Crawford gets close to him keeps the Sox in the game...for awhile. Eventually, Crawford stops playing any offense whatsoever and just passes to Niemann for the easy buckets. Rays win, 21-16.

Game 2:  (4) Texas Rangers vs. (13) Kansas City Royals
The players: Nelson Cruz/Elvis Andrus vs. Yuniesky Betancourt/Jason Kendall

Erm...it seems odd to call a team at 13 an overseed, but, well, we did sort of intentionally make them the worst pairing in the tournament. So, we mean, come on, who picks these seeds? The Rangers are small, but the Royals are bad. Fans of first-round upsets (see also: people who enjoy puppies and sunshine) should avoid their eyes. Rangers win, 21-2 (Yuni lucked into an easy putback, much the same way he's been lucking into major league employment).

Game 3: (5) Minnesota Twins vs. (12) Cleveland Indians
The players: Joe Mauer/Pat Neshek vs. Fausto Carmona/Justin Masterson

This game could be close despite the presence of Joe Mauer since the Indians boast a sizable size advantage. We need to pick our adjectives better. Anyway, Fausto's run at the point starts out looking promising, as he threads the needle with some gorgeous passes, and shows deadly accuracy from 3 point land. But then, in a tragic case of fake sports imitating real sports, his control goes horribly awry - and Justin Masterson alone is no match for Joe Mauer. And, yes, Pat Neshek managed to score some points - but only because Mauer encouraged him to so he wouldn't feel bad. Twins win, 21-15.

Game 4: (3) Boston Red Sox vs. (14) Baltimore Orioles
The players: Dustin Pedroia/Jacoby Ellsbury vs. Matt Wieters/Brian Matusz

The chemistry of Wieters and Matusz stands in stark contrast to the constant bickering happening on the Red Sox squad, as Ellsbury (presumably a decent human being) can't stand Pedroia. Their arguments are punctuated by Pedroia making an Indian joke at Ellsbury's expense, followed by Ellsbury firing a bullet pass at Pedroia's head. Since Pedroia can't catch up with the high-n-in fastball, the ball catches him squarely in the nose, and the game is promptly called so the court can be mopped up. Wieters saves his inevitable heroics for another day. Orioles win by default, 9-5.  

Game 5: (6) Detroit Tigers vs. (11) Toronto Blue Jays
The players:  Justin Verlander/Rick Porcello vs. Mark Rzepczynski/Jason Frasor

Hey, an all-pitcher battle! Neat! Porcello and Verlander are tall, but as pitchers, are barely even athletes. Jason Frasor, as a pitcher, is barely an athlete, but he's got the Bobby Frasor Basketball Blood (that's how these things work, right?) and Rzep of course, bucks the trend by being in phenomenal shape. Blue Jays win, 21-10.

Game 6: (7) Seattle Mariners vs. (10) Oakland A's
The players: Milton Bradley/Franklin Gutierrez vs. Jack Cust/Jerry Blevins

Bradley, as predicted, goes the entire game without being fouled once, since Cust and Blevins are both terrified of him. With Bradley free to drive the lane every time and Gutierrez corralling every rebound and tip and swatting shots left and right, the Mariners make this game is a laugher - especially when Cust stops to take a smoke break midway through the game. Hi-larious, we tell you. Mariners win, 21-4.



Not exactly the most exciting first round, but, hey, a 14 over a 3 always makes for good fun!  Plus, we don't know about you, but the bracket just warms the heart anyway - which is certainly welcome in the frigid February days.

Season in Haiku: Texas Rangers

Neftali Feliz
just struck us out and we're not
even in the Emm Ell Bee.

Trimester Checkup: AL West

After a (pretty big) hiccup, we're back with the trimester checkups. Last, and definitely least, we're hitting the western circuits.  AL first.

1. Texas Rangers, 37-31

2. Los Angeles Angels, 36-31

3. Seattle Mariners, 35-34

4. Oakland A's, 30-38

Biggest Surprise: Well, the Rangers, of course.  This is a team with loads of young talent in the bigs and the minors; that they put it together this quickly is remarkable, even if it is still fairly early.  But their pitching looked like it might have been Orioles-level bad, and instead they've managed to stay above .500 as their motley mound crew, headed by the resurgent Kevin Millwood, has pitched above expectations.  They're not quite hitting like Ranger teams of old, but Josh Hamilton's likely to put up numbers once he returns from surgery, and Chris Davis is due to rebound.  If he doesn't, they've still got Justin Smoak ready to take his spot at first.  The bats should heat up with the weather; the Rangers just have to hope that their pitchers don't wear down in the Texas heat.  Oh, and Russell Branyan of the Mariners deserves a mention here.  Dude's been mashing lefties for years, and he finally got a starting job at the tender age of 33.  What's he done with it so far?  Oh, just OPS'd over 1.000.  NBD, brah.  Jarrod Washburn's been surprisingly good for the fishermen of the northwest as well.

Biggest Disappointment: The A's, we suppose.  Some places had tabbed them as divison winners; we didn't share their optimism, but we did expect better than the sub-.500 performance they're tossed up so far.  Key culprits include a punchless Matt Holliday, Jason Giambi, Orlando Cabrera...heck, a punchless lineup.  No one on this team is slugging .500.  Oddly, what was seen as their biggest Achilles heel going into the season was their young pitching, and Dallas Braden, Josh Outman, and Trevor Cahill have done an above-average job fronting up the rotation.  Brett Anderson has left a lot to be desired, but the team that doesn't have problems in the back end of its rotation is a rare one.

Moves That Should Be Made:

• The Rangers need to shore up their pitching staff.  We know, we know, we just extolled their virtues.  But the fact is, most of these guys just aren't very good, and most of the young guys aren't ready yet.  They do have a position of rare strength with their young pitching and catching depth; our suggestion is to call up RHP Neftali Feliz and flip C Max Ramirez and RHP Neil Ramirez for RHP Aaron Cook.  The Rockies are out of contention right now, and while C Chris Iannetta is a very good backstop, catching is one of those places where teams always want more.  Both Ramirezes are relatively high-ceiling prospects; if Max finds a starting job, it won't be with Texas, though.  Neil is young and inconsistent, but could be a star - and the Rox could stand for some upside with their hurlers.  Cook's groundball tendencies should play well in the Texas bandbox.
• The Angels need to call up 3B/SS Brandon Wood.  And he needs to play every day.  That this guy has been held in the minors for so long, putting up so many numbers, that it's absurd the organization hasn't given him a fair look.  He's played 3 years in AAA now, hitting 25, 23, and 31 HRs while his extremely high strikeout rate has declined each year.  The guy's learned his batting eye, he's slugging .600, and he can play shortstop.  Most teams would be dying to have this guy on their team and the Halos are willfully witholding his wings.  They don't have the money or flexibility to go get anyone else, either.
• The Mariners need to trade Jarrod Washburn to the Rays for SS Reid Brignac or OF Fernando Perez.  That is, assuming the Rays don't do as we suggested here and flip Brignac to the Indians.  The Rays need another pitcher to remain competitive in the ridiculously stacked AL East; between Scott Kazmir and Andy Sonnanstine, they've basically been punting games.  If Kazmir can come back healthy, and if Washburn keeps this up, all of a sudden the Rays have a starting five that can compete with anyone in the league.  As for the M's, they get a guy with higher upside than incumbent SS Yuniesky Betancourt (best name in the majors) or another fast glove guy who happens to have some upside with the stick to put alongside Ichiro, and Wladimir Balentien, or whosoever takes the third spot in the outfield.
• The A's need to decide whether they're contenders or not.  In our opinion, they aren't.  So, there's a couple deals they should make.  Send LF Matt Holliday and 2B Adam Kennedy to the Tigers for OF Wilkin Ramirez and 1B Ryan Strieby.  Both Ramirez and Strieby have 40-HR potential, and the A's are all about stockpiling high-ceiling guys.  Whether that's enough to reel in Holliday is questionable, and he also has to prove he can play right field, but that's a foundation for a deal.  The Tigers have the high upside guys that they don't need now as division title contenders, and the A's have expendable veteran pieces in Holliday and Kennedy.  Owner Mike Ilitch has said that he's willing to spend whatever it takes to turn this team into a winner; he can put his money where his mouth is by landing the big fish on the market.

Prognostication:  The Rangers are going to slow down a bit if their pitching starts performing as expected.  They're going to come to a screeching halt if that happens and Josh Hamilton fails to find his swing.  We see them calling up Justin Smoak at some point and also trading for pitching, both of which should be a big help. The Angels need to get healthy; once John Lackey, Ervin Santana, and Kelvim Escobar get fully healthy, they will have three more star-caliber pitchers in their pocket.  Escobar's probably going to be relegated to bullpen duty the rest of the way, which is convenient since star 8th-inning guy Scot Shields is out for the year, and Lackey and Santana should be great for a rotation that's been mediocre.  Vlad better start hitting, though.  There's another guy who might be washed up... The Mariners are in a rebuiliding process that is showing better results now than was expected.  But we don't think that's a good thing; this team is not good enough to actually win at a good clip all year.  If they fail to recognize this like they did 2 seasos ago, when they went for broke trading for Erik Bedard after a fluky season, they'll dig themselves deeper into the same hole they're working out of right now.  The A's don't have a whole lot to build on.  Their offense is moribund and we have very little hope for them to recover.  The way we see it, Matt Holliday and Jack Cust are really the only two major-league caliber hitters in the group.  Their pitching is showing signs of improving, which is great for the youngsters, but they won't contend this year the way some thought they would.

Final Standings:

1. Los Angeles Angels

2. Texas Rangers

3. Seattle Mariners

4. Oakland A's

Team Preview: Texas Rangers

So in the spirit of Spring Training, it's time to start up with team previews. Teams will be previewed in approximately the same order as we like them. We try not to accord too much favor or bias around here, but...we like some teams more than others. This will only be reflected in the order of the previews. We promise. Sort of. Anyway, the general idea is that we'll talk a bit about the team to preface it all, mention how they did last year and what they've done to address the situation this year. We'll guess at what they will look like on the diamond, and who will log significant innings and/or saves in Around the Horn and From the Bump, respectively. Furthermore, we'll use PECOTA to help us predict what they'll each do this year. Should be great fun. Let's get going.

The Rangers clocked in at 79-83 last season, which was somehow enough for second place in the weakest division in baseball, the AL West.  The Rangers are a fun team if you love offense (we do) and hate pitching (we don't, but we can still enjoy watching the Rangers).  They had the most prolific offense in the bigs last year, posting 5.57 runs per game, and the worst pitching staff, sporting a 5.97 runs allowed average.  That's quite a trick if you can manage it, and the Rangers pulled it off in spades.  They only had three pitchers make more than 20 starts; of those, only Vicente Padilla managed a sub-5.00 ERA (4.74).  Their most valuable pitcher in terms of VORP, reliever Frank Francisco, is better known as the guy who threw a bullpen chair at fans a couple years ago, and his 16.7 VORP is pretty bad in itself.  And their pitchers, all 30 (!) of them who logged innings in a Rangers jersey, combined to average a negative VORP.  Their entire staff was less valuable than replacement level players.

Fortunately, they scored enough runs to help compensate for this problem last year; OFs Josh Hamilton and Milton Bradley, combined with 2B Ian Kinsler and (former) SS Michael Young were a great nucleus to build around.  Surrounded by up-and-comers like 1B Chris "Crash" Davis, OF Nelson Cruz, C's Taylor Teagarden, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Max Ramirez, and SS Elvis Andrus (the last three are former Braves!), this could be a fun lineup for years to come.  Unfortunately, Milton Bradley has departed for the ivy-covered pastures of Wrigley Field, robbing them of arguably the best hitter on the team.  The Rangers hope that Cruz and Marlon Byrd can help fill Bradley's gap in the outfield, though they also signed (former Brave!) OF Andruw Jones as insurance.  Jones, of course, was absolutely horrendous last year, and slightly less horrendous the year before, so we're pretty sure he's done.  But if he can wrangle some ABs and show some of his previous prodiguous power, so much the better for him.

The Rangers also didn't make any moves to address their pitching, though Nolan Ryan's arrival in the front office last year should start to make a difference in this year or the next.  He has changed the organizational philosophy on pitching, hoping to extend their pitchers a little more with improved conditioning programs and an expectation of more innings pitched.  We personally support this movement wholeheartedly; we admit to missing the days when pitchers would routinely go 9.  Anyway, there's a whole lot of problems facing the Texas pitchers beyond not throwing enough innings; with their talent level, they might be better served throwing as little as possible.  There are some promising arms in the system like RHPs Neftali Feliz and Derek Holland, and LHP Matt Harrison (former Braves!), but any free agent help is going to need to be complemented by a lot more development of the young hurlers.  Also they have had some significant defensive issues in the last few years; moving Michael Young to third base for the defensively gifted Elvis Andrus (who will platoon with similarly skilled - and much older! - Adam Everett) will help, but it also significantly weakens their hitting at short, third, and DH, where Hank Blalock's washed-up bat will have to play.

2009 Forecast

PECOTA Projected Record: 73-89, 3rd in AL West.

KCSD Projected Record: 69-93, 4th in AL West.

The offense will be weaker thanks to lesser contributions from short, third, and DH, plus losing Milton Bradley will take a big toll.  We think Crash Davis and Nelson Cruz will be good, but their contributions won't be enough to offset this terrible, terrible pitching staff.  It's a lot like the Orioles' situation.

Around the Horn

C Jarrod Saltalamacchia: .264/.351/.473, 15 HR.  The talented young Salty has long been considered a top prospect, and now is getting a chance to put in a full season of ABs...if he can hold off other top prospect Taylor Teagarden.  And Max Ramirez looms behind them.  The Rangers have really got to trade one of these guys.

1B Chris Davis: .277/.344/.535, 32 HR.  Crash has legit power, and he flashed some good contact skills last season in his 300-AB audition.  If he can build on that in his age-23 season, he could really be something special going forward.

2B Ian Kinsler: .286/.356/.478, 20 HR, 22 SB.  A classic 20-20 man, Kinsler flashed some real power last year while posting near-MVP caliber numbers.  Unfortunately, Kinsler has had trouble staying healthy in the past, which cost him recognition last season.  If he can stay healthy as a 27-year old, and put up power numbers like last season, he can be the anchor of the lineup.

3B Michael Young: .279/.334/.396, 9 HR, 10 SB.  This...is not a useful bat at the hot corner.  Young's steady decline in power the last few seasons were acceptable when he was playing shortstop - albeit poorly - but at third base, you've just got to have someone with more pop in the bat.  Also we'd like to point out that Young's contract extension was just silly when it was signed and will only look worse in years to come.  Until is expires, anyway.

SS Elvis Andrus:  .247/.299/.331, 1 HR, 20 SB.  Bold move installing a 20-year old as a starting big league shortstop.  Kid's good with the glove, but has very little power, and hopefully his bat starts to play a little more as he develops.  

LF David Murphy: .260/.360/.421, 13 HR, 9 SB.  Murphy has a good eye at the plate, and power will come as he develops.  His bat should play now, but he's more of a future investment.

CF Josh Hamilton: .310/.390/.550, 34 HR, 10 SB.  Hamilton faces a challenge, especially from a health standpoint, in moving to center full-time, but we're not about to bet against him.  He's got so much natural baseball talent that we wouldn't doubt anything he chose to do.  And, hey, he's gotta be better than at least a few of their pitchers.  Why not give him some innings??

RF Nelson Cruz: .270/.339/.489, 27 HR.  We just watched Cruz play in the WBC today.  That's not really relevant, but we just like the WBC.  Probably more than most.  Anyway Cruz is a talented kid who's got a very good bat.  Should be an above-average right fielder.

DH Hank Blalock: .279/.340/.475, 12 HR.  Blalock has had serious injury issues the last few years, and his production has suffered accordingly.  But he'll be 28 this year, and has one less rib, so maybe his body will find it easier to lug itself around now.

From the Bump: Starters

RHP Kevin Millwood: 165 IP, 5.15 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 115 K, 52 BB.  God, he's their ace?  We're already getting depressed.

RHP Vicente Padilla: 160 IP, 5.21 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 110 K, 61 BB.  Thankfully, his contract is up after this year.  We're spiraling downward.

RHP Brandon McCarthy: 110 IP, 5.09 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 72 K, 44 BB.  The former White Sox prospect showed up with a newly muscled up body in hopes to stave off the injury bug that's bitten him recently, but he's already got shoulder stiffness.  Spiraling...

LHP Matt Harrison: 125 IP, 6.31 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 62 K, 49 BB.  And look at the former Brave.  We've now hit bottom. Thanks, Rangers.

You know, we don't care about their fifth starter and suspect that you don't, either.  We could throw out any name, with any line of horrible, horrible numbers, and it'd be believeable.  Let's just say that whoever ends up logging innings here will combine for something like a 6.50 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, not very many K's, and lots of walks.  We hope they prove us wrong, but...well...we've hit bottom, remember?

From the Bump: Starters

Closer RHP Frank Francisco: 60 IP, 3.23 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 66 K, 27 BB, 27 SV.  We know someone has to be the best pitcher on a baseball team, but when yours is Frank Francisco, you're probably in trouble.  That said, he's a useful guy who can rack up saves, Ks, and fan-related lawsuits.

Setup man LHP C.J. Wilson: 60 IP, 3.67 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 54 K, 27 BB.  Wilson was tabbed as the closer last year, but suffered with bone spurs in his elbow before ultimately shutting it down.  '08 was a lost season for Wilson, but we like him to rebound a little bit this year.  Which means that the Rangers will have TWO useful pitchers!  They'll be celebrating in the streets when they read this.