Season Preview: Toronto Blue Jays

Real baseball starts tomorrow. Thought you should know. Today: the Toronto Blue Jays. Tomorrow, the world.

Lineup: There's not a lot of exciting talent here, but this is a fairly productive group of hitters. Adam Lind and Travis Snider are the excellently pedigreed hitters who should hit well enough to overcome their defensive shortcomings - they will spend time at LF and DH. Vernon Wells is hoping that his annoying trend of alternating good and bad seasons continues, since he was terrible last year - but with that contract weighing him down, it's gonna be tough to man CF effectively, or swing a bat. Jose Bautista, whom we did not know was still alive (that's why we write the previews!) is apparently going to be in right field, but he's 30 and has a career .729 OPS so don't get your hopes up, Nucks. The infield is cornered by Edwin Encarnacion and Lyle Overbay, both of whom are near-certainties to be league-average and also get hurt. Alex Gonzalez and Aaron Hill will be the double play combo, and while Gonzalez is no good, Hill had a monster season last year. If he can repeat that - and it's not very likely - then this team actually has a decent middle of the lineup, which will be exciting. John Buck, who improbably slugged .484 in 200 ABs last season will don the tools of ignorance, and hopefully play well enough to keep Jose Molina on the bench. Brett Wallace should be up before too long; he's a hitter in the Lind/Snider mold, albeit somewhat more athletic, and catcher Travis D'Arnaud will hopefully take over for their uninspiring catching duo at some point, though it may not be soon.

Rotation: Obviously, this group looked a lot better with Roy Halladay running out there every fifth day, but they're not an altogether bad unit. Shawn Marcum has struggled with injuries in his brief career, but he has excellent control and could be a real force if healthy. Ricky Romero, the slight lefty, has also...y'know, really, just about all Blue Jays pitchers have gotten hurt but have some real talent. So feel free to re-read the Marcum comment and apply it to Romero and Dustin McGowan. Brandon Morrow is a very intriguing prospect acquired from the Mariners, and he'll man the 4 spot. Morrow was effective as a reliever, but hasn't demonstrated much as a starter. The fifth spot will likely go to Marc Rzepczynski, whose name we still have trouble spelling even after writing more about him than probably anyone who doesn't write for Drunk Jays Fans, but Brandon Tallet and Brett Cecil will likely get some starts as well. Top prospect Kyle Drabek may be along to help things out eventually, but probably not for any substantial amount of time this season.

Bullpen: Jason Frasor is the closer here, and while he's somewhat uninspiring, he's a pretty good hurler, so they could do worse. Scott Downs and Jeremy Accardo are also good late-inning options. Jesse Carlson, besides looking absurd in this MLB.com picture, is a fairly mediocre option, but he's probably better than a guy like Shawn Camp, who isn't good for much besides getting groundballs. Oh, and Kevin Gregg is likely to see lots of innings, too...but he's terrible, so Jays fans had better hope that's not the case.

Overall: The Blue Jays are, unfortunately, the least inspiring squad in a division of heavyweights. Obviously, they're not competing with the unholy trinity of Sox/Yanks/Rays, but they're likely behind even Baltimore in the race for fourth-best team - not necessarily this season, but in terms of future prospects. There's some good young talent there now, and more coming, but they're still a lesser version of the O's - and that's even if they can finally keep their promising rotation healthy for once.


Predicted Record: 77-85, 4th place AL East

Beer: Alexander Keith's. Har dee har, choosing a Canadian beer for the only Canadian team in MLB. We're just phoning it in at this point. But like the Jays in their loaded division, Alexander Keith's tends to fall by the wayside when talking about Canadian brew; in the minds of the many, they are hardly worth noticing next to, say, Molson and Labatt. But there's definite quality in this Blue Jays squad - it's just that, like Keith's, you have to work a little to find it.

MLB Jam: Bracket and AL Round 1

Perhaps because we have entirely too much time on our hands or perhaps because, hey, who doesn't like brackets?, we've now made a bracket for the MLB Jam business we've been bandying on about around these parts. Seeding was determined based on the team's performance relative to their league; the Yankees, for example, are the 1 seed in the AL because they had the AL's best record. Oh, and they get a bye (as do the Angels) because there're 14 teams in the American League for reasons unbeknownst to us...but at least it's easier to make brackets for 14 and 16 team leagues instead of 15. Yikes. Can you even imagine? And then, of course, we're going to play out this imaginary tournament. Because that's how committed we are to our readers (especially the one from Korea! Hi!). Here're the AL's first 6 games, after which our shiny new bracket will be unveiled! Rules: games to 21, 2's and 3's, win by 2, call your own fouls. Whee!

Game 1: (8) Tampa Bay Rays vs. (9) Chicago White Sox
The players:  Carl Crawford/Jeff Niemann vs. Brent Lillibridge and John Danks

It looks like this game features an egregious underseed in the Rays, who boast the athleticism of Carl Crawford and the 6'9''-ism of Jeff Niemann. Anyway, Niemann should easily handle Danks down low, but Lillibridge's strategy of falling over and calling a foul every time Crawford gets close to him keeps the Sox in the game...for awhile. Eventually, Crawford stops playing any offense whatsoever and just passes to Niemann for the easy buckets. Rays win, 21-16.

Game 2:  (4) Texas Rangers vs. (13) Kansas City Royals
The players: Nelson Cruz/Elvis Andrus vs. Yuniesky Betancourt/Jason Kendall

Erm...it seems odd to call a team at 13 an overseed, but, well, we did sort of intentionally make them the worst pairing in the tournament. So, we mean, come on, who picks these seeds? The Rangers are small, but the Royals are bad. Fans of first-round upsets (see also: people who enjoy puppies and sunshine) should avoid their eyes. Rangers win, 21-2 (Yuni lucked into an easy putback, much the same way he's been lucking into major league employment).

Game 3: (5) Minnesota Twins vs. (12) Cleveland Indians
The players: Joe Mauer/Pat Neshek vs. Fausto Carmona/Justin Masterson

This game could be close despite the presence of Joe Mauer since the Indians boast a sizable size advantage. We need to pick our adjectives better. Anyway, Fausto's run at the point starts out looking promising, as he threads the needle with some gorgeous passes, and shows deadly accuracy from 3 point land. But then, in a tragic case of fake sports imitating real sports, his control goes horribly awry - and Justin Masterson alone is no match for Joe Mauer. And, yes, Pat Neshek managed to score some points - but only because Mauer encouraged him to so he wouldn't feel bad. Twins win, 21-15.

Game 4: (3) Boston Red Sox vs. (14) Baltimore Orioles
The players: Dustin Pedroia/Jacoby Ellsbury vs. Matt Wieters/Brian Matusz

The chemistry of Wieters and Matusz stands in stark contrast to the constant bickering happening on the Red Sox squad, as Ellsbury (presumably a decent human being) can't stand Pedroia. Their arguments are punctuated by Pedroia making an Indian joke at Ellsbury's expense, followed by Ellsbury firing a bullet pass at Pedroia's head. Since Pedroia can't catch up with the high-n-in fastball, the ball catches him squarely in the nose, and the game is promptly called so the court can be mopped up. Wieters saves his inevitable heroics for another day. Orioles win by default, 9-5.  

Game 5: (6) Detroit Tigers vs. (11) Toronto Blue Jays
The players:  Justin Verlander/Rick Porcello vs. Mark Rzepczynski/Jason Frasor

Hey, an all-pitcher battle! Neat! Porcello and Verlander are tall, but as pitchers, are barely even athletes. Jason Frasor, as a pitcher, is barely an athlete, but he's got the Bobby Frasor Basketball Blood (that's how these things work, right?) and Rzep of course, bucks the trend by being in phenomenal shape. Blue Jays win, 21-10.

Game 6: (7) Seattle Mariners vs. (10) Oakland A's
The players: Milton Bradley/Franklin Gutierrez vs. Jack Cust/Jerry Blevins

Bradley, as predicted, goes the entire game without being fouled once, since Cust and Blevins are both terrified of him. With Bradley free to drive the lane every time and Gutierrez corralling every rebound and tip and swatting shots left and right, the Mariners make this game is a laugher - especially when Cust stops to take a smoke break midway through the game. Hi-larious, we tell you. Mariners win, 21-4.



Not exactly the most exciting first round, but, hey, a 14 over a 3 always makes for good fun!  Plus, we don't know about you, but the bracket just warms the heart anyway - which is certainly welcome in the frigid February days.

Season in Haiku: Toronto Blue Jays

Au revoir, J.P.
Too bad Vernon is still here.
That dude makes tooooo much.

Trimester Checkup: AL East

It's about a third of the way through the 162 game grind, so we're going to take a look at the various divisions and tell you who's coming up in the world, who's fading, players to keep an eye on, and what moves the teams should make to better themselves for the rest of the season.  KCSD: believing we're MLB GM material since 2009!

Let's kick this business off with baseball's most competitive division - the AL East.  As of this writing, they boast 4 teams with .500 or better records, which ain't too shabby in our eyes.

1. New York Yankees, 33-23.

2. Boston Red Sox, 33-24.

3. Toronto Blue Jays, 32-27.

4. Tampa Bay Rays, 29-29.

5. Baltimore Orioles, 24-33.

The biggest surprise thusfar has got to be the Blue Jays' offense.  We were as bearish as anyone on their chances to contend with what looked like a punchless offense that goes unrivaled north of the border.  Which goes without saying, we guess.  But lo and behold, they're scoring 5 runs a game, 8th best in MLB - yet only 4th best in the division, which goes to show you how potent the AL East is.  If anything, we'd have guessed that the Jays' pitching would have to be elite to keep them relevant, but while Doc Halladay has, of course, been outstanding, the rest of the staff has been mediocre.  Even with Halladay's superior start to the season, the unit's 4.62 runs allowed per game clocks in at 14th in MLB.  If they are to maintain their pace and remain contenders late into the season, the Jays are going to have to step that up, since we aren't of the opinion that, say, Aaron Hill and Marco Scutaro are suddenly world beaters at the dish.  But other than Matt Holliday, who would be the cure for a lot of team's ills, we can't see an easily upgradeable spot as long as the hitters somehow maintain their torrid pace; as such, trading for a pitcher may be the best way to hang around.  The problem for the Jays is, with the Red Sox and Yankees ahead of them, and the Rays probably a better overall team, it doesn't make sense to sell the farm to acquire a Jake Peavy or Matt Holliday, since that won't be enough to put them over the top.  We're glad we're not Jays fans.

The biggest disappointment in our eyes has got to be last year's Cinderella story, the Rays.  This was an easy choice; projected by some (us) to win the Series after an unexpected AL Pennant last year, the Rays are playing .500 baseball on the heels of wildly disappointing performances from stars like Scott Kazmir, Pat Burrell, B.J. Upton (remember when we thought he was gonna be MVP?) and down years from guys like Dioner Navarro and Andy Sonnanstine.  Their bullpen has, of course, regressed some to post numbers more akin to what we'd expect from the motley crew; they're lucky that Jason Bartlett (!), Evan Longoria, Carl Crawford, and Ben Zobrist (!!) have been hitting like it's their job.  Akinori Iwamura's also gone for the year now, which is a shame considering that he was posting his best offensive year since hopping the ocean, though it does give the Rays more at bats for Ben Zobrist to continue to prove his mettle.  And on the bright side, some guy named David Price finally made his for-good-this-time debut; he should provide a nice shot in the arm with his strikeout stuff and fresh arm.  As for fixes, maybe Matt Joyce could get some more ABs...other than that, they might have to trade for someone.  But you've gotta think Upton, Burrell, and Navarro should start putting up numbers like we've been expecting, so there's no holes to fill in the lineup.  We recommend seeing if they can't flip Scott Kazmir for some pitching help. It's unlikely, but that's the place where they can stand to make the biggest improvements, and Kazmir's star is falling quickly.  Best trade him while they still can.

The biggest question mark the rest of the way?  Whether David Ortiz is done or not.  If Ortiz can regain his slugging form, the Red Sox have a lineup that can hang with the Rays in terms of 1-9 balance, and it'll be huge having contributions from Big Papi make up for what they're going to lose in Jason Varitek's inevitable dropoff.  They have so much talent in the rotation that they can compensate for either of the two hitters being terrible, but if both of them start hitting like little leaguers, the back end depth that was supposed to be a Sox strength but has instead been shoddy patchwork may reveal itself as their undoing.  John Smoltz will help, and Clay Buchholz is (still) waiting in the wings while Brad Penny and Daisuke Matsuzaka continue to struggle, but neither the rehabbing Smoltz nor the green Buchholz are sure things.  

Here are some moves we think these teams need to make to tighten themselves up for the rest of the season, since the McLouth trade broke the seal on deals.

• The Yankees should trade INF Ramiro Pena and RHP Alfredo Aceves to the White Sox for INF Alexei Ramirez.  The Cuban Missile should see his power numbers rebound a bit, and with the Yankees' lack of depth and power in the infield, Ramirez's bat could have a useful bit of punch.  The White Sox aren't going anywhere, and with the way they rushed SS Gordon Beckham to the bigs, Ramirez may or may not be part of the plan going forward.
• The Red Sox should call up RHP Clay Buchholz.  The primo pitching prospect has been dominating in the minors for too long not to get starts over the likes of Brad Penny.  How much longer can they leave this kid down there?
• The Rays should trade LHP Scott Kazmir and SS Reid Brignac to the Indians for OF Nick Weglarz and C Kelly Shoppach.  The Indians could call up Carlos Santana to serve as Victor Martinez's catching partner, slot Kazmir into the rotation behind Cliff Lee, slide SS Jhonny Peralta to the bench since his star seems to be falling, and improve their chances to win the tepid AL Central.  The Rays get another impact bat in the outfield/DH mix as well as a backstop who can take over if Navarro remains as bad as he's been this season.
• The Jays should decide if they're going to go for broke on the back of an overperforming offense or not.  Or if they can even really go for broke at any point in the near future.  It's really an awkward point for the Jays, since they have impact prospects who will be ready at a point in the future when the Sox/Yanks/Rays triumverate may be weaker, but not enough significant depth to get impact talent that can play right now.  We don't envy anyone running front office duties for the Jays right now or in the near future.  Our best recommendation?  Just soak in Roy Halladay's pitching genius.
• The Orioles already made their best moves by starting the youth movement.  OF Nolan Reimold and C Matt Wieters are tossing in their lot to improve a stacked young lineup, and while the pitching still sucks, newcomers Matt Albers, Troy Patton, David Hernandez, Rich Hill, and Koji Uehara provide some nice depth with the potential to be more.  Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, Jake Arrieta, and Brandon Erbe have even greater potential than the above group and have yet to make their debuts.  Our recommendation is for the O's to trade George Sherrill, a bullpen arm making too much money, for any infield prospect help they can get.  We don't care who they get, as long as it's someone who's more than organizational filler.  And give some of the Tillman-Matusz-Arrieta-Erbe group a chance to show what they've got in September at the latest.

As for our prognosis on how this'll go the rest of the way, we're still going to stand by the Rays to come back and win this division.  The Yankees have been great, but we're not of the belief that they'll be able to muster enough pop from their lineup as summer stretches on and their age/injury problems come into sharper focus.  The starting pitching has been great, and we love the depth, but the bullpen's been subpar, and Mariano Rivera's been anything but automatic this year as age takes its toll on Mr. Sandman.  The Red Sox are going to see Jason Varitek come down to last year's levels, and we don't think David Ortiz is going to show any signs of life - he's done.  The rotation's good, but we still trust Tampa's more.  If Kazmir can turn it around, or the Rays can flip him and call up any one of their elite prospects, they'll have a 1-5 capable of beating anyone.  The lineup's too good not to start hitting as a complete unit; once Upton, Burrell, and Navarro step up, they'll be a force.  The Jays just don't have enough pieces right now to win, and their lineup is going to start performing like we thought it would.  And the Orioles are an exciting young team...but they play in the AL East. Sorry, kids.

Predicted Final Standings:

1. Tampa Bay Rays

2. New York Yankees

3. Boston Red Sox

4. Toronto Blue Jays

5. Baltimore Orioles