Season Preview: Tampa Bay Rays

3 days left. Hitters. Pitchers. Predicted Record. Beer. TAMPA BAY RAYS.


Lineup: There's talent everywhere, and if B.J. Upton and Dioner Navarro (or Kelly Shoppach steps up) this could be one of the best lineups in the league. Evan Longoria is the centerpiece and mans the hot corner with aplomb to boot. Across the diamond, Carlos Pena has enormous power and can take a walk with the best of them. He's not getting any younger, true, but he should have another couple of seasons left in him, particularly if his hands are healed from last season's broken fingers. The double play combo features Jason Bartlett, who's a passable gloveman and saw an obscene power surger last year (expect that to regress, but for him to remain above average for an SS) and either Ben Zobrist or Sean Rodriguez, depending on how the team feels about the latter's spring, we guess. Zobrist had a monster year last season, leading the AL in WAR, and while we don't expect him to repeat the feat, he's certainly an excellent hitter; seasons like his '09 don't happen on a pure fluke. Rodriguez, acquired from the Angels in the Scott Kazmir trade, posted 1.000+ OPS in his last two minor league seasons, but both came in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, so we don't expect him to flash the same power. He's got a good eye and can make contact, though. As for the catcher spot, Dioner Navarro seemed to have broken out in 2008, but was one of the worst players in the AL last season. He's got to remember how to work counts and not swing at dumb pitchers. Kelly Shoppach boasts big power, especially for a catcher, but has yet to prove himself in a full season's ABs. As for the outfield, Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton are superlative athletes, though only Crawford has had sustained success. Upton showed his potential in the '07 playoffs, but regressed horribly last season. He's at least a plus defender who can steal bases with the best of them, so hopefully the success of his younger brother Justin pushes him to figure it out for a full season. If Zobrist doesn't man second base, he'll be the right fielder; expect to see some combination of Matt Joyce and Gabe Kapler there otherwise. Joyce has some promise, but we'd like to see them give Desmond Jennings or Fernando Perez an extended run over there for as long as they've got Crawford and Upton in the other two spots.

Rotation: This is a wildly talented group. Matt Garza and James Shields are practically fixtures atop the rotation by now, and while they've not been dominant, the potential is there for them to be ace-level this season. And the trio of Jeff Niemann, David Price, and Wade Davis are all oozing with potential, particularly the latter two. Niemann should be good for a 4.00 FIP, which in the loaded AL East is nothing to sneeze at. People seem to have forgotten about Price after a disappointing go of it last season, and while he has a lot to prove w/r/t his control, the strikeout stuff is still there. Davis has been one of the team's top prospects for awhile now, and we're excited to see him get his shot. He doesn't have Price's proclivity for strikeouts, but commands his pitches better, and is effective at limiting home runs. The projection systems have him coming in around a 4.00 FIP also, which is particularly impressive for a rookie.

Bullpen: The addition of Rafael Soriano to the back end of the pen helps a great deal, as the Rays were conspicuously lacking in a true lockdown arm. Soriano should provide that, and he'll have a good setup corps in LHP J.P. Howell and RHPs Grant Balfour and Dan Wheeler. Balfour struggled with his control last season, and Howell was injured, but a return to form from both of them makes the late-inning pitching a legitimate strength. Andy Sonnanstine lost out on the competition for the fifth starter job, but should make for a capable long reliever - or at least trade bait. Randy Choate and Lance Cormier were effective last season, though neither is much of one for strike 3. The most interesting guy here is R.J. Swindle, the soft-tossing lefty sidewinder. He may feel like a gimmick, but ignore the fastball that couldn't even dream of hitting 90 on its most ambitious days and look at the fact that he posted a 2.21 ERA in 6 minor league seasons - while striking out a sparkling 9 per 9 and walking less than 2. GIVE THE MAN A CHANCE.

Overall: We picked the Rays to win the World Series last season and B.J. Upton to win the MVP. While the former was a convenient excuse to post a picture of Rachael Ray from her FHM shoot awhile ago, the latter was just poor predictive ability colored by our love for young talent hat could set the world on fire - a love that we still have, apparently, because everything about the Rays screams 'contender' to us. They can hit, they can pitch, they can field, they have one of the best front offices in the game, and the farm is bursting at the seams with young talent. If the Yankees sustain a few injuries, this division is, in our mind, theirs for the taking.

Predicted Record: 93-69, 2nd place AL East

Beer: Natural Ice. The plight of MLBers on a low salary has been made public by the Rays' Fernando Perez in a shocking and insightful brief documentary piece. So they can't afford to be spending lots of money on a beer becoming of their talent level - or a Carl Crawford becoming of their organization's talent level, if all the indications are correct. Natty Ice is cheap but strong enough to befit a team that can hit with the best of 'em but shells out cash like Jeffrey Loria after dropping his revenue sharing check on a new yacht.

Carlos Pena: The Real Triple Crown Winner?

Today we were actually reading the ESPN Power Poll - it was a slow day, don't be so quick to judge - and they dropped this little nugget: Carlos Pena has 34 HR and 35 singles on the year.

Well, then we found out that Carlos Pena just hit another home run, extending his total to a league-leading 35.  Of course, the corollary to this is that he now has as many home runs as he does singles.  This is fairly remarkable given that we're nearing the end of August, yes?  

Now, since he leads the AL in homers and has an equal number of singles, the natural question to ask is: where does he rank in singles?  We're glad you asked that natural question because we did some research.  Take a guess at the answer!

Go on, guess.

Well, of players with at least 350 PA, Carlos Pena ranks second to last in singles.  His 35 juuuuust outstrips Jason Varitek's 34.  Of course, Pena has 518 PA to Varitek's 365 (a 153 PA advantage, if you don't like math), so if we merely raise the minimum PA to 400, well, then Pena's the big winner (loser?).  If you look at the NL also, there's guys like Chris Young, Jay Bruce, Chris Iannetta, Kelly Johnson, and Jason Giambi (a Rockie now), but they have either served time in the minors or on the bench as a punishment for their lack of contact hitting ways.  So we don't feel bad doctoring the answer a bit to anoint Pena at least the AL Champion of Not Hitting Singles.  Boy, that's a fun title for the mantle.  Let's see if we can't give him a little more credit.

Well, gee, looking at Pena's Baseball Reference page, we find that Pena also leads the AL in walks and strikeouts, with 81 (leading Jason Bay's 79) and 149 (5 better than Russell Branyan's 144), respectively.  So, what we have here is a guy who is on pace to win the Three True Outcomes Triple Crown in the AL.  

The Three True Outcomes, for those of you who don't know, are a walk, a strikeout, or a home run.  They are so named because they do not involve the defense at all - unless, we guess, there's a dropped strike 3 or something and the catcher has to throw the batter out.  But, essentially, there you are: the only three outcomes of a pitch that depend solely on the contributions of the hitter and the pitcher.  

The mention of the TTO reminds us of an article the inimitable Dr. Rany Jazyerli wrote for Baseball Prospectus some years ago - in 2000, to be exact.  In it, he examined the guys throughout history who've posted the highest TTO% - defined as (HR+BB+K)/(AB+BB).  A simple enough formula, and it yields reasonable results.  As of the writing of that article, the highest career TTO% belonged to Dave Nicholson, clocking in at a tidy 52.1%.  Other notable names on the list include Rob Deer, Jim Thome, Bo Jackson, Mark McGwire, Mickey Tettleton, and Jay Buhner.  The highest single season TTO% (min. 100 AB), in case you were wondering, belongs to Russell Branyan, with a whopping 61.2%.  

We're going to do a small exercise similar to that, which we're going to call TTOTC.  Catchy, right?  Basically we're going to look at all the seasons from 01-08 and see who's finished among the top 10 in their respective league in walks, strikeouts, and home runs.  This sorting of the players allows us to see who can do each of the three at a level such as they might compete for the TTO Triple Crown, hence the TC part of the acronym.  Which, we might agree with you, is a pretty terrible acronym anyway.  But bear with us for a moment.  Here are the guys:

2001: Jim Thome, Carlos Delgado, Troy Glaus, Sammy Sosa

2002: Sammy Sosa, Jim Thome

2003: Jason Giambi, Carlos Delgado, Jim Thome, Richie Sexson

2004: Adam Dunn, Jim Thome, Jim Edmonds, Alex Rodriguez 

2005: Richie Sexson, Alex Rodriguez, Adam Dunn

2006: Adam Dunn, Ryan Howard, Jim Thome, Alex Rodriguez, Troy Glaus

2007: Carlos Pena, Jim Thome, Ryan Howard, Adam Dunn

2008: Adam Dunn, Jack Cust, Carlos Pena, Jim Thome

We don't know about you but we're disappointed Thome didn't quite make it in '05, and surprised to see Alex Rodriguez on there once, let alone twice.

We then went through and figured out those guys' TTO% in the years where they were among the top 10 in each category.  Here are the top 10 such seasons...

Cust 08: .576
Thome 01: .542
Thome 02: .520
Dunn 04: .516
Dunn 06: .514
Dunn 08. .510
Howard 06: .504
Thome 07: .501
Pena 08: .500
Thome 06: .496

How does Pena's 09 season stack up so far?  Well, he's TTO'ing at a .524 clip, which would be the third best mark of this decade after Cust's 2008 and Thome's 2001 campaigns.  But what's really remarkable is that none of those guys - not only the top ten list, but anybody from the longer, year-by-year list up there - led their respective league in homers, walks, and strikeouts.  So not only is he having one of the best TTO seasons by percentage, but he could be the first slugger of this decade to win the Three True Outcomes Triple Crown.  And that, if you ask us, is a title we'd be much prouder to show off on our mantle.  

TL;DR version: No one this decade has been as prolific in the Three True Outcomes categories as Carlos Pena, and if he keeps it up, he'll win the first TTO Triple Crown of the 00's.