Season Preview: Washington Nationals

Opening Day! Opening Day! Let's get the Nationals out the way!

But first, a sidenote: if Obama is throwing out the first pitch at the Nationals game tomorrow, then does that mean that today's Red Sox-Yankees affair isn't actually 'Opening Day?' Because can you really start the season the day before the Prez gets to toss out the first ball? Wait...don't answer that.

As we were.

Lineup: Ryan Zimmerman is the star here, and deservedly so; he is not only an elite hitter but can pick it with the best of 'em. Adam Dunn, on the other hand, has the second-best bat on the team, but negates much of that advantage with an abysmal glove. Josh Willingham - when healthy - has had his moments, and Nyjer Morgan took a huge step forward last season; his bat almost caught up to his glove. We doubt that he repeats that season, though, which leaves the Nationals with a pretty impotent outfield; Willie Harris is, for some reason, the starting right fielder. Back in the infield, the Nats aren't bad up the middle, with promising rookie Ian Desmond manning shortstop and aging vet Adam Kennedy holding down the keystone. We'd be more comfortable with this group if we could perfect time travel and get a more developed Desmond and a younger Kenned; without looking, we'd say Adam Kennedy hasn't posted a wRC+ over 100 since 2003. (Upon review: he did it last season. Whoops. But that was his first time since 2005. Moral victory. It's our blog, after all.) The corpse of Ivan Rodriguez will rely on the starting catcher's gear to hold his bones together, which is a bad strategy on several levels (particularly if literally true). Jesus Flores will be around in a year to wrest the job from Pudge II's cold, dead hands, but for now, the Nationals are paying a premium for a guy who is a lock to hit like a replacement player. So in retrospect...we guess they're not actually all that much better than you'd expect.

Rotation: The loss of Jordan Zimmermann and the refusal to start Strasburg in the minors (a move we support, mind you) make this group a  lot less promising than it would otherwise be. Jason Marquis continues to ride the gravy train of last season's 15 wins; he managed to parlay that into an All-Star appearance and a multiyear deal, which we guess is pretty impressive. And also soul-crushing, but still impressive. John Lannan, the team's Opening Day starter, managed a 3.89 ERA despite striking out, like, 3 batters per 9 (who needs fact checking?); if he can keep tossing 200 innings of ~4 ERA ball, then that has to be considered pretty good for this squad. Scott Olsen and Garrett Mock - particularly Mock - have great stuff, but haven't shown an ability to harness it effectively (or, in Olsen's case, to keep his head on straight and throw strikes at the same time). Neither has the upside they once did, but there's some promise yet to be found there. J.D. Martin is also listed on the official team depth chart, despite the fact that he was reassigned. Washington Nationals: on the ball!

Bullpen: Matt Capps was a great upside play; the Pirates released him after he struggled last season, and the Nats snapped him on a minor-league deal. Capps had been good prior to last season's breakdown, and with the variability of relief pitching, it's easily within reason that he'll rebound to have one of his better sesons as the closer here. Tyler Clippard, whom we confused with Chase Wright, is not actually the guy best known for serving up four consecutive tater tots to Red Sox batters, but is a former Yankee - and so is Brian Bruney. Which has to mean something, right? Well, no, but they are both pretty good pitchers. Jason Bergmann is in the 'pen, which meanst the team will have at least one of its '...nn' pitchers. Sean Burnett was pretty good last season, and we think that he, Bruney and Bergmann should start their own 'Killer B's.' Miguel Batista, auteur extraordinaire, was not very good last season. Nor is it likely he will be this season. But he could lobby to join the Killer B's, if they're nice. It'll be like when Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell were declining badly, but people kept calling them that.

Overall: Put simply, the Nationals aren't going to be very good this year. But there are signs of improvement, and talented prospects on the horizon. We're not saying they're going to compete any time soon in what is a pretty loaded NL East, but they will cease to be laughingstocks. Probably. Anyway, a core of Zimmerman, Strasburg, Zimmermann and Flores is not too shabby, and if the youngn's grow up quick and the vets get old slow, they could coast above .500 sometime.

Predicted Record: 69-93, 5th place NL East

Beer: Schlitz. Schlitz disappeared for a time, but came back to store shelves in 2008 to much fanfare despite being a pretty mediocre beer. The Nationals disappeared for a time, but came back to D.C. in 2005 to much fanfare despite being a pretty mediocre team. We just never learn.

Don't Forget Your Gloves

We're sure that you've already heard plenty about how MLB teams have been placing an increased emphasis on defense of late.  This is due in part to a revolution in defensive evaluation: as more and more batted ball data emerges, defensive statistics have become increasingly useful and accurate, and teams have been able to reap the benefits.  The Rays became the poster child for this movement after they essentially reversed their record from a last-place 66-96 to a pennant-winning 97-65.  While this was not due entirely to defense, one of the major changes that ownership brought about was to place the emphasis on defense that saw them rise from a third-worst -6.5 UZR/150 in 2007 to 2nd-best 11.0 in 2008 (it also seems worth mentioning that the only team better was the Phillies, at 14.8, and we all know how that ended).   

That said, let's take a look at who's shown the biggest improvements on defense this season.  We're going to use FanGraphs' UZR/150 as our quick and dirty stat, though we admit that it has its flaws, as does any defensive metric.  In any event, who's pulled a Tampa this season?  

UZR Change 08-09

One general note: it's interesting that so many of the teams that were near the bottom of the pack in '08 showed the greatest improvements in '09.  There's two ways to look at this development.  Optimistically, you could say that the front offices of these teams are smart, recognized that they could stand to improve on defense, then took steps to correct the problem.  Or, we guess you could just point out that since they started low, they had nowhere to go but up.  To which we say: you a dark, dark person.  

In any event, the top of the list isn't very surprising.  Detroit, Seattle, and Texas are three teams that everyone knew was making a newfound commitment to defense.  The Tigers brought in Adam Everett and haven't had to suffer Carlos Guillen and Miguel Cabrera's defensive stylings.  Franklin Gutierrez, Endy Chavez, and Ichiro make up the best defensive outfield in the game, and Adrian Beltre is no slouch.  Even the Rangers have talked all season about making a commitment to defense, perhaps best evidenced by their willingness to rush glove wizard SS Elvis Andrus to the bigs at the tender age of 20.  But we'd never have guessed about the Reds and Pirates.  What happened there?

In Cincinnati, they've got an outfield that is similar to the Mariners' group in terms of defensive excellence.  Among guys with 300 innings, Drew Stubbs, Willy Taveras, Jay Bruce, and Laynce Nix have been flat out excellent.  They've only got three guys posting negative ratings, and Edwin Encarnacion's -17.2 is now Toronto's problem.  Plus, Joey Votto (-1.3 at 1st base) and Adam Rosales (-0.9 at 3rd) are hardly huge liabilities.  This is an overall solid group that, if they could hit and/or pitch, would be great.

There's a different story out in the Burgh, though.  Their two best defenders, Nyjer Morgan (+24.1) (!) and Jack Wilson (+17) are gone, and they've got serious defensive holes with 2B Delwyn Young, SS Ronny Cedeno, and RF Garrett Jones.  This is a case where you see the leftover contributions of the dearly departed having an unfairly positive effect on the team as a whole.  

So after that negative note, let's take a look at the bottom part of this chart.  The Mets really stand out, as they've gone from pretty good to abysmal.  However, even we can't hold them fully responsible for this drastic defensive decline; after all, as has been the case with every other facet of their season, the amount of injuries they've suffered has greatly affected their ability to play with their desired alignments.  It's not their fault, for example, that Anderson Hernandez and Alex Cora have played a lot of shortstop.  But some of their guys really are just outright bad defenders (see: Wright, David; Sheffield, Gary; Castillo, Luis; Francoeur, Jeff (ha!)).  So this ranking is not entirely undeserved.

The Phillies have regressed quite a bit, but it can be hard to maintain the level of excellence that they established last season.  For what it's worth, the entire roster of regulars (300+ innings) is basically solid but unspectacular at defense; Chase Utley leads the club with a +8.7 mark, and Shane Victorino is the only subzero straggler, with a -3.8 rating.  

For people that are searching for reasons as to why the Cubs have disappointed this year, one to point to could be their defensive shortcomings.  Milton Bradley was pretty bad in the outfield - we know, Milton, we're singling you out and there's a negative atmosphere in this blog, but you're a DH in the NL - but not nearly as bad as Alfonso Soriano, who's been one of the worst left fielders in the game.  Jake Fox has seen too much time at third base, but Aramis Ramirez is no great shakes with the glove himself, and Mike Fontenot hasn't contributed much in the way of...well, anything, really, but he's been really bad at defense.  Guy's got a great baseball card, though. 

So what do we take away from all of this?  Well, improving defense isn't guaranteed to make you a contender, but it's an effective, affordable way to upgrade your club.  Or at least it was affordable; as it becomes a more valued, quantifiable skill, teams are going to pay more for premium defenders.  It's the Moneyball concept: teams could win on the cheap by identifying inefficiencies in the player market and exploiting them.  For a few years, that inefficiency was OBP; of late, it's defense.  But as teams start paying and playing guys like Adam Everett, Elvis Andrus, Endy Chavez and Adam Dunn (still paying attention?) who are offensive zeros but save enough runs to be valuable, it's going to be time to find another inefficiency.  Our prediction?   Soon you'll be hearing about how the Rays/Rangers/Other Upstart Team have been great because all their hitters are otherworldly bunters.  That'll be a fun couple of seasons.

Carlos Pena: The Real Triple Crown Winner?

Today we were actually reading the ESPN Power Poll - it was a slow day, don't be so quick to judge - and they dropped this little nugget: Carlos Pena has 34 HR and 35 singles on the year.

Well, then we found out that Carlos Pena just hit another home run, extending his total to a league-leading 35.  Of course, the corollary to this is that he now has as many home runs as he does singles.  This is fairly remarkable given that we're nearing the end of August, yes?  

Now, since he leads the AL in homers and has an equal number of singles, the natural question to ask is: where does he rank in singles?  We're glad you asked that natural question because we did some research.  Take a guess at the answer!

Go on, guess.

Well, of players with at least 350 PA, Carlos Pena ranks second to last in singles.  His 35 juuuuust outstrips Jason Varitek's 34.  Of course, Pena has 518 PA to Varitek's 365 (a 153 PA advantage, if you don't like math), so if we merely raise the minimum PA to 400, well, then Pena's the big winner (loser?).  If you look at the NL also, there's guys like Chris Young, Jay Bruce, Chris Iannetta, Kelly Johnson, and Jason Giambi (a Rockie now), but they have either served time in the minors or on the bench as a punishment for their lack of contact hitting ways.  So we don't feel bad doctoring the answer a bit to anoint Pena at least the AL Champion of Not Hitting Singles.  Boy, that's a fun title for the mantle.  Let's see if we can't give him a little more credit.

Well, gee, looking at Pena's Baseball Reference page, we find that Pena also leads the AL in walks and strikeouts, with 81 (leading Jason Bay's 79) and 149 (5 better than Russell Branyan's 144), respectively.  So, what we have here is a guy who is on pace to win the Three True Outcomes Triple Crown in the AL.  

The Three True Outcomes, for those of you who don't know, are a walk, a strikeout, or a home run.  They are so named because they do not involve the defense at all - unless, we guess, there's a dropped strike 3 or something and the catcher has to throw the batter out.  But, essentially, there you are: the only three outcomes of a pitch that depend solely on the contributions of the hitter and the pitcher.  

The mention of the TTO reminds us of an article the inimitable Dr. Rany Jazyerli wrote for Baseball Prospectus some years ago - in 2000, to be exact.  In it, he examined the guys throughout history who've posted the highest TTO% - defined as (HR+BB+K)/(AB+BB).  A simple enough formula, and it yields reasonable results.  As of the writing of that article, the highest career TTO% belonged to Dave Nicholson, clocking in at a tidy 52.1%.  Other notable names on the list include Rob Deer, Jim Thome, Bo Jackson, Mark McGwire, Mickey Tettleton, and Jay Buhner.  The highest single season TTO% (min. 100 AB), in case you were wondering, belongs to Russell Branyan, with a whopping 61.2%.  

We're going to do a small exercise similar to that, which we're going to call TTOTC.  Catchy, right?  Basically we're going to look at all the seasons from 01-08 and see who's finished among the top 10 in their respective league in walks, strikeouts, and home runs.  This sorting of the players allows us to see who can do each of the three at a level such as they might compete for the TTO Triple Crown, hence the TC part of the acronym.  Which, we might agree with you, is a pretty terrible acronym anyway.  But bear with us for a moment.  Here are the guys:

2001: Jim Thome, Carlos Delgado, Troy Glaus, Sammy Sosa

2002: Sammy Sosa, Jim Thome

2003: Jason Giambi, Carlos Delgado, Jim Thome, Richie Sexson

2004: Adam Dunn, Jim Thome, Jim Edmonds, Alex Rodriguez 

2005: Richie Sexson, Alex Rodriguez, Adam Dunn

2006: Adam Dunn, Ryan Howard, Jim Thome, Alex Rodriguez, Troy Glaus

2007: Carlos Pena, Jim Thome, Ryan Howard, Adam Dunn

2008: Adam Dunn, Jack Cust, Carlos Pena, Jim Thome

We don't know about you but we're disappointed Thome didn't quite make it in '05, and surprised to see Alex Rodriguez on there once, let alone twice.

We then went through and figured out those guys' TTO% in the years where they were among the top 10 in each category.  Here are the top 10 such seasons...

Cust 08: .576
Thome 01: .542
Thome 02: .520
Dunn 04: .516
Dunn 06: .514
Dunn 08. .510
Howard 06: .504
Thome 07: .501
Pena 08: .500
Thome 06: .496

How does Pena's 09 season stack up so far?  Well, he's TTO'ing at a .524 clip, which would be the third best mark of this decade after Cust's 2008 and Thome's 2001 campaigns.  But what's really remarkable is that none of those guys - not only the top ten list, but anybody from the longer, year-by-year list up there - led their respective league in homers, walks, and strikeouts.  So not only is he having one of the best TTO seasons by percentage, but he could be the first slugger of this decade to win the Three True Outcomes Triple Crown.  And that, if you ask us, is a title we'd be much prouder to show off on our mantle.  

TL;DR version: No one this decade has been as prolific in the Three True Outcomes categories as Carlos Pena, and if he keeps it up, he'll win the first TTO Triple Crown of the 00's.