Season Preview: Seattle Mariners

Well we've got 4 days - yes we're constantly making mistakes with our timeline. We don't know why - left until Opening Day, which means it's season preview time. We'll be running it down team by team, with an added new wrinkle this time around: the beer of choice for fans of the team to enjoy whilst watching their team take the field! Nothing like that to help get you through a baseball season, especially if you're from Pittsburgh. Up next: the Seattle Mariners.


Lineup: The lineup tends to get glossed over when talking about the Mariners, partly because they seem to acquire position players with an emphasis on defensive ability and partly because the lineup isn't actually all that good. The additions of Chone Figgins and Milton Bradley should make the biggest difference, as there are now three legitimate hitters in the lineup - if Bradley stays healthy, that is. And the third, of course, is Ichiro, who gets far less credit than a man of his exploits and abilities is due. Browse U.S.S. Mariner some time for a better idea. Franklin 'Death to Flying Things' Gutierrez is the superlative glove in center field, and guys like Eric Byrnes and Ryan Langerhans (whom we hate irrationally) will share time with Bradley in left - though ideally Bradley will operate mostly from the DH position. Around the infield, Jose Lopez and Figgins have swapped positions, with Lopez handling hot corner duties and Figgins manning the keystone - a move we don't care for, particularly because Lopez's bat plays much better at second than at third, and his defense is marginal at best both places. Jack Wilson plays a great short, but he's not all that much of  a hitter - good enough for a shortstop, we suppose, though they shouldn't be counting on him for even 150 games anyway. Casey Kotchman rounds out the infield, and he seems to be one of the first basemen in the league with little in the way of power but a decent glove to make him an acceptable option, if not the ideal choice. Rob Johnson and Adam Moore are the catchers; Moore is a pretty good prospect, but whether he'll get the playing time remains to be seen (Johnson is currently listed first on the team's depth chart).


Rotation: The addition of Cliff Lee gives the M's a 1-2 to rival any in the league, as Clifton and Felix are both established aces at this point - albeit having taken greatly different ways of getting there. Lee is currently suffering from a strained oblique that is suffering to make him miss significant time, though, so they could be weakened in the first month of the season. If that's the case - especially combined with Erik Bedard's late return from surgery - then the Mariners are all of a sudden relying heavily on Ryan Rowland-Smith, whose Twitter account is a relative treat), Ian Snell, Doug Fister, and one or both of Luke French and Jason Vargas. Rowland-Smith isn't terrible (4.28 career FIP), but Snell, who can't strike people out anymore (or, for that matter, throw a strike; 5.15 BB/9 last season, 4.12 for the career) is, and Fister, beyond the obvious benefits of a giggle-worthy name and good control, isn't someone we would want in the regular rotation. French, who apparently learned how to strike people out in 2008 (relatively so; 7.93 K/9 isn't impressive in its own right, but it is a full two ticks up from his previous norms) doesn't project to be much better than a guy who hopes to post a sub-5.00 FIP, and Vargas, despite a good 73 innings with the Marlins in 2005, has been sub-replacement level since. So, yeah, there could be trouble if Lee and Bedard don't contribute substantially.


Bullpen: This unit is going to rely heavily on David Aardsma and Mark Lowe to repeat or build upon his banner 2009 season, because the guys sharing the 'pen with them aren't exactly 'reliable' (and yes we realize it's odd to call two guys with career-best seasons last year 'reliable.'). Brandon League's not bad, but if you'd like an irrelevant fun fact, his FIP and ERA haven't been closer than a run apart since 2006. Shawn Kelly and Sean ('the Pitching Tomato,' if only he were redheaded) White both are projected to hover around a 4.00 FIP. Garrett Olson, on the other hand, is terrible, and rookie Kanekoa Texeira (who needs to get together with Mark Teixeira and determine which way the name is to be spelled, for all of our benefit) is projected to do poorly this season despite a pretty fantastic minor league career. So it's not exactly an inspiring cast, but, hey, they're relievers. They could just as easily lead the league in FIP as be a complete bunch of flamers (I couldn't find the clip, but if you don't recognize the Arrested Development joke, then just go watch the whole series and get familiar).


Overall: The Mariners have perhaps somewhat inflated expectations given that they're the darlings of the sabersphere. There's a lot to like about this team, true, but they still don't have what you'd call a potent lineup, the rotation could easily end in injury-related shambles, and the bullpen doesn't have a lot of big arms that you'd feel comfortable calling on in tight games. But they can still field the ball, and unless some of their premier guys see one of those season-by-season fluctuations that can occur in defensive play, that should remain their calling card - and in spacious Safeco, that's not entirely a bad thing. 


Predicted Record: 86-76, 1st place AL West. But we're very uncomfortable with that choice.


Beer: Fat Tire. A recent hot favorite in the American market, people who buy Fat Tire have lofty expectations. And it is very good. But it's not the superlative brew that people expect all the time. With the holes in the Mariners team, it's possible that they end up like a big glass of Fat Tire - delightful but not a life changer.

MLB Jam: AL Semi-Finals

Oh boy, we're gettin to the quick now. 8 teams remain, including both 1 seeds and a couple of Cinderella stories in the (12) Houston Astros and (14) Baltimore Orioles. The backstopping darlings of the sabersphere (Wieters, Mauer) remain alive, to say nothing of the rangy (7) Mariners squad. SO! What will we see in today's action? Can Wieters and Mauer set the stage for a showdown that will surely be the end of us all? Will the Yankees continue their march of dominance? WE DON'T KNOW. Just kidding. We do. You don't. Yet. Games to 21, 2's and 3's, call own fouls and here...we...go.

Game 1: (1) New York Yankees vs. (5) Minnesota Twins
Players: Andrew Brackman/CC Sabathia vs. Joe Mauer/Pat Neshek


You know, the Yankees are a lot like the San Antonio Spurs in this business. We hope you'll ignore the cross-sport metaphor, considering that this whole thing is, you know, a cross-sport deal. In any event, they've got the David Robinson/Tim Duncan twin towers combo, their navy and white is more or less analogous to the Spurs' black and silver, and a title win by either feels more like a preordained event more than cause for celebration. It's a methodical march for these folks. So but then you can imagine the surprise when Sabathia goes all Tim Duncan and shoots 4-23 in a stunning display of selfishness and ineptitude considering that this is a game to 21. Sorry, boys, but you'll have to do better to beat Joe Mauer (the Kobe Bryant in the Yankees-Spurs analogy). Twins win, 21-17.


Game 2: (14) Baltimore Orioles vs. (7) Seattle Mariners
Players: Matt Wieters/Brian Matusz vs. Franklin Gutierrez/Milton Bradley


It's not too often that a 14/7 matchup features such elite talents. Neither team is to be trifled with, which we know is supposed to be said about all teams, but, well, some teams really suck (hi, KC!). But any team with Matt Wieters is a force, and any team featuring Franklin 'Death to Flying Things Jr.' Gutierrez is going to be a very tough out. So while they're low seeds, this isn't exactly an upset special - and neither team's trademarks of victory are going to work as well here. The chemistry between the Baltimore battery mates is impenetrable to Bradley's mercurial (we're legally required to say that word in any post where Bradley's name appears) nature, but the superb natural talents of Wieters is neutralized somewhat by Gutierrez's superhuman range around the court. The teams duel to an epic standstill - and at 50-50, both teams have had enough. So you know what's coming, of course: a shooting contest to determine the winner (no dunking). But after even that proves ineffective (it went on for hours and, while incredible to watch, also got repetitive), the teams decide that a sudden death point will win. They have a jump ball to determine who gets it first, which the Orioles win. Unfortunately for the Mariners, Bradley then tears an ACL arguing to the referee about the unfairness of the jump ball. Ironically, since we call our own fouls, Bradley was the ref - and, in fact, threw the jump ball in the first place. Poor guy. Orioles win, but we lost track of the score.


Oh, like there was any way we weren't going to have Mauer and Wieters facing off. Come on! Most exciting 5/14 matchup ever? Most exciting 5/14 matchup ever. Bracket time!

MLB Jam: AL Edition

Well, this started as a post that was going to compile information about all the arbitration-eligible players in the league, like what they were being offered/countering with, what they signed for, etc. After all, a lot happens very quickly around this time of year. But then we found out that the indispensable Cot's Baseball Contracts is already doing just that. Sometimes, we just don't know why we bother.

But in any event we went through the trouble of logging in here, so, hey, might as well write something, right? A couple of days ago, over at our other gig on MLB Notebook, we briefly tossed out the idea of creating an MLB version of NBA Jam - hence the goofy title of this post. At the time, we weren't really sure how such a thing would work. Should we pick the two guys who'd be best at hoops, or the most representative players of the team regardless of hooping ability? If we did consider basketball skills, was there any chance that we could avoid charges of racism*? Should we look at baseball skills?

*Short answer: certainly not. Longer answer: certainly not, but it's not like we've got an enormous readership clamoring for controversy.

With no real answer in sight, we decided that this was probably a pretty silly idea. But then!

Well, no, there is no but then! moment. We're still fairly sure this is a dumb idea. But we're going to try to play it relatively straight, and pick the two guys who we think would make for a decent 2-on-2 team from each team's 40-man roster. Will it work? Well, that's for you to decide.

AL East
Baltimore Orioles: Matt Wieters and Brian Matusz

• Sliced bread, of course, is the greatest thing since Matt Wieters, and if Matusz can toss entry passes like a baseball, this team could get by on some Stockton/Malone mojo. They'll be a bit 'tweener-sized, since both are 6'5'', but they might be a nice darkhorse.

Boston Red Sox: Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia 

• The Sox are just not a very tall team - Dustin Richardson (whom we've never heard of ) is the tallest at 6'6''. So we're gonna go small ball with this team - Ellsbury's legs will play well at the point, and Pedroia seems like that annoying bastard at the Y who plays dirty and hits enough shots to feel secure in taunting everyone about it.

New York Yankees: Andrew Brackman and CC Sabathia

• Brackman is at least 6'10'' (he was listed at 7'0'' in the Cape Cod League) so he's a natural choice to be the big man for the Yankee squad. And have you ever seen a fat man play basketball who doesn't hit shots like it's his job? We haven't. And we're writing this. So there.

Tampa Bay Rays: Carl Crawford and Jeff Niemann

• Crawford gets the nod over the uber-athletic Desmond Jennings because he's got about 40 pounds on the guy. Niemann makes it because he's 6'9''. We also considered Matt Garza because of the aforementioned douche-factor that got Pedroia a spot, but we decided that Garza's more like the kind of guy that people on his own team resent during pickup games.

  Toronto Blue Jays: Jason Frasor and Mark Rzepczynski

• We know it looks like this team will suck. But Jason Frasor's brother, Bobby Frasor, is the point guard at North Carolina, and Rzepczynski has a first-rate fitness program. So all we're saying here is that this team could be a dark horse.

AL Central
Chicago White Sox: Brent Lillibridge and John Danks

• "Baby Face" Brent Lillibridge is on the team because he looks sort of incredibly fragile, so he'll be able to draw plenty of charging calls against the bigger, badder teams. Danks' brother, Jordan, is an excellent athlete in center field, so maybe big bro John was blessed with some of that, too. What we're saying is, it's slim pickings on this team.

Cleveland Indians: Fausto Carmona and Justin Masterson

• We're going big with these guys. Carmona, a 6'5'' sinkerballer, should be able to throw a mean bounce pass - assuming he doesn't miss wildly every time. Masterson's 6'6'', and that's literally the only reason we can think of to put him on here. But unless Shin-Soo Choo has some Jeremy Lin in him, we're sort of at a loss for the rest of these guys.

Detroit Tigers: Justin Verlander and Rick Porcello

• Couple of tall young guns here. We figure that since they're a pair of starting pitchers, they both spend plenty of their copious downtime with one another, and so have a good chemistry. Now let's all start pretending that "chemistry" has still never been used to settle an issue on this here blog.  

Kansas City Royals: Yuniesky Betancourt and Jason Kendall

• Sorry, but when a team is fielding two of the worst regular players in the league, they sort of have to be on the same team together. But, hey, at least Kendall has that Veteran Presence, eh? Let's just hope he doesn't break an ankle.

Minnesota Twins: Joe Mauer and Pat Neshek

• Sort of the same reasoning here as with the Orioles...what, exactly, can't Joe Mauer do? And would Pat Neshek's sidearm game translate to roundball? And has anyone ever won a game while listening to Livin' on a Prayer? Stay tuned!

AL West
Los Angeles Angels: Jered Weaver and Reggie Willits

• Weaver, at 6'7'', would be one of the tallest players in this silly little contest. Willits has himself a speedy pair of legs, and since the other choices were the oft-injured Howie Kendrick and old Bobby Abreu, we took Willits. Though it would be funny to watch Fernando Rodney repeatedly throw chest passes into the crowd...that is, if he's not still standing on the mound in the Metrodome.  

Oakland Athletics: Jack Cust and Jerry Blevins

• Cust's Three True Outcomes game at the plate clearly translates to the hardcourt like so: HR -> slam dunk; BB -> puppy two-footer; K -> missed three-pointer. Not the worst guy in the world to have on your team. Blevins is 6'6''. We're starting to see that size is something of a premium in MLB, so instead of going with the speedier Eric Patterson or Rajai Davis, we're gonna pick height. This is gonna be a plodding team, so for their sake, we may have to play half-court. 

Seattle Mariners: Milton Bradley and Franklin Gutierrez

• Would you want to foul Bradley and get him angry? That's what we thought. And Gutierrez - a.k.a. Death to Flying Things - would clearly pull down every rebound in sight, and probably block a few shots as well. 

Texas Rangers: Nelson Cruz and Elvis Andrus

• We're dipping into the defense theme again with Andrus, but Cruz is the real threat here. He's a stocky guy, at 230, but he's also got speed to burn, having stolen 20 bases last season. 

So there you have it. Feel free to let us know if you can think of better choices for any of the spots - we promise we won't be offended. Oh, and stay tuned for the NL version at some point in the near future. We hope.

Season in Haiku: Seattle Mariners

Death to flying things!

Yo Adrian, wear a cup.

Waka-waka, y'all.

Don't Forget Your Gloves

We're sure that you've already heard plenty about how MLB teams have been placing an increased emphasis on defense of late.  This is due in part to a revolution in defensive evaluation: as more and more batted ball data emerges, defensive statistics have become increasingly useful and accurate, and teams have been able to reap the benefits.  The Rays became the poster child for this movement after they essentially reversed their record from a last-place 66-96 to a pennant-winning 97-65.  While this was not due entirely to defense, one of the major changes that ownership brought about was to place the emphasis on defense that saw them rise from a third-worst -6.5 UZR/150 in 2007 to 2nd-best 11.0 in 2008 (it also seems worth mentioning that the only team better was the Phillies, at 14.8, and we all know how that ended).   

That said, let's take a look at who's shown the biggest improvements on defense this season.  We're going to use FanGraphs' UZR/150 as our quick and dirty stat, though we admit that it has its flaws, as does any defensive metric.  In any event, who's pulled a Tampa this season?  

UZR Change 08-09

One general note: it's interesting that so many of the teams that were near the bottom of the pack in '08 showed the greatest improvements in '09.  There's two ways to look at this development.  Optimistically, you could say that the front offices of these teams are smart, recognized that they could stand to improve on defense, then took steps to correct the problem.  Or, we guess you could just point out that since they started low, they had nowhere to go but up.  To which we say: you a dark, dark person.  

In any event, the top of the list isn't very surprising.  Detroit, Seattle, and Texas are three teams that everyone knew was making a newfound commitment to defense.  The Tigers brought in Adam Everett and haven't had to suffer Carlos Guillen and Miguel Cabrera's defensive stylings.  Franklin Gutierrez, Endy Chavez, and Ichiro make up the best defensive outfield in the game, and Adrian Beltre is no slouch.  Even the Rangers have talked all season about making a commitment to defense, perhaps best evidenced by their willingness to rush glove wizard SS Elvis Andrus to the bigs at the tender age of 20.  But we'd never have guessed about the Reds and Pirates.  What happened there?

In Cincinnati, they've got an outfield that is similar to the Mariners' group in terms of defensive excellence.  Among guys with 300 innings, Drew Stubbs, Willy Taveras, Jay Bruce, and Laynce Nix have been flat out excellent.  They've only got three guys posting negative ratings, and Edwin Encarnacion's -17.2 is now Toronto's problem.  Plus, Joey Votto (-1.3 at 1st base) and Adam Rosales (-0.9 at 3rd) are hardly huge liabilities.  This is an overall solid group that, if they could hit and/or pitch, would be great.

There's a different story out in the Burgh, though.  Their two best defenders, Nyjer Morgan (+24.1) (!) and Jack Wilson (+17) are gone, and they've got serious defensive holes with 2B Delwyn Young, SS Ronny Cedeno, and RF Garrett Jones.  This is a case where you see the leftover contributions of the dearly departed having an unfairly positive effect on the team as a whole.  

So after that negative note, let's take a look at the bottom part of this chart.  The Mets really stand out, as they've gone from pretty good to abysmal.  However, even we can't hold them fully responsible for this drastic defensive decline; after all, as has been the case with every other facet of their season, the amount of injuries they've suffered has greatly affected their ability to play with their desired alignments.  It's not their fault, for example, that Anderson Hernandez and Alex Cora have played a lot of shortstop.  But some of their guys really are just outright bad defenders (see: Wright, David; Sheffield, Gary; Castillo, Luis; Francoeur, Jeff (ha!)).  So this ranking is not entirely undeserved.

The Phillies have regressed quite a bit, but it can be hard to maintain the level of excellence that they established last season.  For what it's worth, the entire roster of regulars (300+ innings) is basically solid but unspectacular at defense; Chase Utley leads the club with a +8.7 mark, and Shane Victorino is the only subzero straggler, with a -3.8 rating.  

For people that are searching for reasons as to why the Cubs have disappointed this year, one to point to could be their defensive shortcomings.  Milton Bradley was pretty bad in the outfield - we know, Milton, we're singling you out and there's a negative atmosphere in this blog, but you're a DH in the NL - but not nearly as bad as Alfonso Soriano, who's been one of the worst left fielders in the game.  Jake Fox has seen too much time at third base, but Aramis Ramirez is no great shakes with the glove himself, and Mike Fontenot hasn't contributed much in the way of...well, anything, really, but he's been really bad at defense.  Guy's got a great baseball card, though. 

So what do we take away from all of this?  Well, improving defense isn't guaranteed to make you a contender, but it's an effective, affordable way to upgrade your club.  Or at least it was affordable; as it becomes a more valued, quantifiable skill, teams are going to pay more for premium defenders.  It's the Moneyball concept: teams could win on the cheap by identifying inefficiencies in the player market and exploiting them.  For a few years, that inefficiency was OBP; of late, it's defense.  But as teams start paying and playing guys like Adam Everett, Elvis Andrus, Endy Chavez and Adam Dunn (still paying attention?) who are offensive zeros but save enough runs to be valuable, it's going to be time to find another inefficiency.  Our prediction?   Soon you'll be hearing about how the Rays/Rangers/Other Upstart Team have been great because all their hitters are otherworldly bunters.  That'll be a fun couple of seasons.