Season Preview: Cincinnati Reds

Well we've got 23 days left until Opening Day, which means it's season preview time. We'll be running it down team by team, with an added new wrinkle this time around: the beer of choice for fans of the team to enjoy whilst watching their team take the field! Nothing like that to help get you through a baseball season, especially if you're from Pittsburgh. Up next: the Cincinnati Reds.


Lineup: There's definite bright spots here...and there's also some dismal bits. First, the good: Joey Votto is one of the best hitters in the NL, Brandon Phillips is a premier second basegentleman, Scott Rolen could well have something left in the bat, Jay Bruce is primed for a monster season, and Drew Stubbs has some real upside. Beyond that, they're hoping that some combination of Jonny Gomes, Laynce Nix, Wladimir Balentien and Chris Dickerson will make for respectable left-field production, that Orlando Cabrera has something left in the tank (he doesn't, really, but that makes him more or less league average, which isn't too bad for a SS), and that Ryan Hanigan and Ramon Hernandez are a capable catching duo (they aren't). So, yeah, there's plenty of star-level talent here, but there's not much depth, and there's potential for this to go downhill quickly.


Rotation: If only Edinson Volquez were healthy, this rotation would be, in a word, formidable. Johnny Cueto and Bronson Arroyo can be counted on for league-average production with some upside on Cueto's part, Aaron Harang isn't far removed from Cy Young-level contributions, and the biggest difference between Micah Owings (Tulane!) and other fifth starters is that Owings' bat is phenomenally good for a pitcher. Homer Bailey is the wildcard here, as the former top prospect showed signs of finally putting it together at the Major League level last season. If he can fulfill his potential, then a rotation that would be in a holding patten until Volquez and Aroldis Chapman are ready to step in, becomes a real force. 


Bullpen: We're big fans of this group. Fireballing Francisco Cordero is the big money name at the back-end, but guys like Nick Masset, Arthur Rhodes, Mike Lincoln, and Bill Bray are competent as well. Plus, they employ the 5'6'' Daniel Ray-Herrera, who we're sure goes by Daniel because Danny would sound too diminutive, who has become one of our favorite players. And, yes, we count a middle reliever among our favorite players. What of it?


Overall: There's so much to like about this team, and many people are touting them as sleepers this season. Which sort of defies the point of being a sleeper if you ask us, but there's plenty of reasons to be optimistic. They're loaded with young talent all over the diamond, giving them an enviable core of players that could compete for years to come in any division (ok, except the AL East). 2011 may be the real year for this team, but then people thought Texas wouldn't be good until 2010. 


Predicted Record: 82-80, 3rd place NL Central.


Beer: Abita Amber. Caramel-kissed beers go very well with chili, which we're told is sort of a big thing in Cincy. Baseball, Skyline, and Abita? We're envious.

MLB Jam: NL 1st Round

After an action-packed first day of the epic tournament known far and wide as MLB Jam - and hopefully MLB Properties doesn't sue me for calling it that! - it's time for the senior circuit to have their day of first-round glory. And, hey, it comes on their 134th birthday! We've never been fond of postponing birthday celebrations, so let's get right to the hoopin' action. Games to 21, 2's and 3's, win by 2, call own fouls and we're off!

Game 1: (1) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. (16) Washington Nationals
Players: Matt Kemp/Jon Broxton vs. Adam Dunn/Nyjer Morgan


This game is probably the closest 1/16 matchup that's ever happened. You're essentially looking at the same team - Kemp and Morgan and Broxton and Dunn are essentially analogs. Morgan's got a big more speed than Kemp, but Broxton has a size (both height and weight) advantage on Dunn. Ultimately, though, we think Kemp channels some LeBron and drives the lane for a game-winner over Morgan. Dodgers win 21-19.


Game 2: (8) Chicago Cubs vs. (9) Milwaukee Brewers
Players: Carlos Zambrano/Sean Marshall vs. Carlos Gomez/Yovani Gallardo


Lots of Latin flavor in this matchup! Zambrano and Marshall are a fairly plodding group, while Gomez is one of the fastest players in the league. We think Gomez does a little A.I. impression, scampering all over the court underneath and around Big Z and Medium M. Yovani hits a three-ball here and there to keep them balanced, and the Brewers cruise. Brewers win 21-14.


Game 3: (4) St. Louis Cardinals vs. (13) New York Mets
Players: Albert Pujols/Adam Wainwright vs. Gary Matthews, Jr/Mike Pelfrey


Matthews is old and washed-up and Pelfrey is tall. Pujols is a Hall of Famer in his prime and Wainwright is tall. You can guess what happens here. Cardinals win 21-6.


Game 4: (5) San Francisco Giants vs. (12) Houston Astros
Players: Pablo Sandoval/Tim Lincecum vs. Michael Bourn/Evan Engelbrook


Shocking that the Giants pulled a 5 seed, we know. Also shocking is the inclusion of Engelbrook, whose existence remains unconfirmed to us. But if the man exists, he stands a whopping 6'8'', which we're fairly sure (we don't believe in research, so you can fact check this yourself) is taller than Sandoval and Lincecum put together. Plus, neither Sandoval nor Lincecum is capable of keeping up with Bourn's wheels. And, if you like cheap shot jokes, feel free to imagine Lincecum taking a mid-game smoke break then partaking in a team buffet with the Panda. Whether you do or not, the game doesn't go well for the Giants. Astros win, 21-10.


Game 5: (3) Colorado Rockies vs. (14) Arizona Diamondbacks
Players: Dexter Fowler/Greg Reynolds vs. Justin Upton/Dan Haren


Another matchup where the two teams are very even. Fowler and Upton are both uber-athletic guys, and Reynolds and Haren are both commanding post presences. Well, you know, for purposes of this game, they are. Buuut the Rockies do enjoy a size advantage here, with the 6'4'' Fowler and 6'7'' Reynolds both standing taller than their respective analogs, which is the difference in a tight contest. Rockies win, 21-17.


Game 6: (6) Florida Marlins vs. (11) San Diego Padres
Players: Josh Johnson/Sean West vs. Kyle Blanks/David Eckstein


The Marlins are, collectively, the tallest team in this contest by a long shot, with their guys measuring in at 6'7'' and 6'8'' respectgively. Blanks, however, is also 6'7'' and is relatively speedy for a 300 pounder. Plus...he's got an afro that clearly channels the spirit of Dr. J. Shockingly, the modestly-sized-if-we're-being-kind Eckstein grits and grinds and hustles his way to 15 of the team's 21 points, and dives for no fewer than 26 loose balls. What a gamer, that guy. Makes even us abandon the height favoritism we showed in just the last capsule we wrote. Padres win, 22-18.


Game 7: (7) Atlanta Braves vs. (10) Cincinnati Reds
Players: Tommy Hanson/Yunel Escobar vs. Danny Ray-Herrera/Willy Taveras/Chris Sabo


Ooof...and this is why you don't set lineups early. Since Taveras was traded - and DFA'd - yesterday, he is no longer eligible to play. But then! Just when DRH is getting ready to play singlehanded, who should walk through the door but Chris Sabo! The onetime Red with the goofy goggles, Sabo's inspiring entrance completely deflates the Braves squad - particularly since the goggles rend Sabo invincible to Escobar's mounting frustrations and cheap shots. Esco eventually storms off the court in anger, leaving Hanson to fend for himself. Unsurprisingly, it doesn't go well. Reds win, 21-11.


Game 8: (2) Philadelphia Phillies vs. (15) Pittsburgh Pirates
Players: Shane Victorino/Ryan Howard vs. Andrew McCutchen/Garrett Jones


Easily the most entertaining contest of the first round, Victorino and McCutchen trade running floaters and in the lane and dazzling moves on the perimeter while Howard and Jones counter with jump hooks, ferocious dunks, and powerfully swatted shots. Victorino earns his nickname in overtime, though, as the Hawaiian-bred baller flies over McCutchen's head for a posterizing finish to an epic battle. Phillies win, 30-27.


So let's check out that bracket now:

Lookin good! And a couple of big upsets, to boot - how 'bout that Eckstein fellow! First round MVP, eh? Tomorrow we'll have a couple of exciting divisional matchups in the AL side...can the upstart Rays topple the formidable Yankees? Can Seattle dethrone the Angels? We'll be on hand to tell you exactly what happens in those battles and more!

Season in Haiku: Cincinnati Reds

Willy Taveras

Is poetry in motion.

Come back, Edinson...

Trimester Checkup: NL Central

Time for the NL Central's exam.  Drop 'em and cough, boys.

1. Milwaukee Brewers, 33-26

2. Cincinnati Reds, 31-27

3. St. Louis Cardinals, 32-28

4. Chicago Cubs, 29-27

5. Pittsburgh Pirates, 27-32

6. Houston Astros, 26-31

Biggest Surprise: The Milwaukee Brewers.  They have 2 guys who are producing big numbers at the dish in Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun.  They have 1, maybe 2 quality starters in Yovani Gallardo and Dave Bush.  They're relying on big contributions from pitchers like Seth McClung, Mark DiFelice, and Todd Coffey.  Rickie Weeks is out for the year and hasn't played in several weeks, but still ranks as the third most-productive hitter on the team in VORP.  And yet...here they are in first place ahead of the near-consensus favorite from Chicago, and dark horses in Cincinnati and St. Louis.  We're going to chalk this one up to a nice hot streak for a team that's playing over its head right now.  

Biggest Disappointment: We have a trio of winners: Milton Bradley, Alfonso Soriano, and Geovany Soto.  Unsurprisingly, the Cubs have been the division's most disappointing team.  Also, for those of you who expected a healthy year from Rich Harden: silly yo- ok, silly us, because he's been pretty banged up this year.  You've gotta figure they'll get better once Aramis Ramirez comes back from his calf troubles, and once Milton Bradley gets over his, and once Alfonso Soriano stops having a sore knee, and...y'know, the Cubs just need a better training staff.  Or a bunch of replacement legs. 

Moves That Should Be Made:

• The Brewers should find themselves another hitter.  Trade J.J. Hardy for...well, there's not much available.  Alberto Callaspo, if they're sick of Craig Counsell's stick.  If it's Corey Hart they want to give up on - and he's been trending downward - they could go after Ryan Ludwick.  The Cards need a shortstop - they're rumored to be in the market for Miguel Tejada, after all - and the Brewers need to do something about their limited offense.
• The Reds have been playing like the bizarro Reds this year - all pitching, no hitting, when in previous years, they've been hitting and not pitching.  Maybe if they hadn't let Adam Dunn go, they wouldn't be in this predicament...and we'd suggest that they try to get him back.  But, since neither party appears to enjoy each other's company, that doesn't seem so likely.  They don't seem to have much to trade, and their biggest problems, like with many other clubs, are up the middle - Ramon Hernandez is having a bad year, Alex Gonzalez isn't hitting, and center field is a black hole.  We say, call up Drew Stubbs and Chris Valaika.  Stubbs can take over for Willy Taveras in center, and Valaika can fill in for the injured Edwin Encarnacion.  He's a shortstop by trade, but Gonzo's defense is adequate to keep him there for the year.
• The Cardinals are rumored to be in the market for Miguel Tejada, and that seems like the right move to us, as long as they aren't concerned about his salary.  We still think Cristian Guzman makes sense, though Tejada's track record may make him more appealing.  Regardless, the Cards desperately need to do something to bolster their lineup.  It's a one-man show with Albert Pujols; no one else is worth even 1 win over replacement.  As for what they can offer, we already covered the Guzman trade.  Tejada might cost as much as Brett Wallace, though if we were Cardinals faithful, we'd hope they don't get that desperate.  
• The Cubs need to get healthy.  They've got the talent to win right now, but injuries to their starting first baseman, third baseman, left fielder, right fielder, and most talented starter and reliever have decimated the team's performance to this point.  Just don't panic, Chicago.
• The Pirates are out of the cellar!  There's no more moves they need to make, either.  They don't have any high-paid veterans, unless you count Jack Wilson, and even if you do, he won't bring a very big return.  Their most tradeable asset, Nate McLouth, already got moved, and his return was somewhat less than we expected.  Really, unless the Buccos flip Wilson and Freddy Sanchez for any kind of high-ceiling guys, there's no further dealing to be done here - unless teams overvalue their starting pitching, which has been pitching above expectations this year.
• The Astros are in a bad situation.  They're saddled with four huge contracts in Carlos Lee, Lance Berkman, Roy Oswalt, and Miguel Tejada.  Beyond those four, there aren't any real assets on the team besides Jose Valverde, Wandy Rodriguez, and Hunter Pence - and maayyybe Michael Bourn.  They need to do whatever they can to shed those deals and improve a mediocre-at-best farm system.  Berkman is having a down year, so his value is likely somewhat surpressed.  Lee is untradeable beacuse of his contract and weight.  Miguel Tejada is expensive and old, and they're gonna have to probably eat some of his deal to get back quality prospects - unless, as we mentioned, a team like the Cardinals gets desperate enough at short to cash in on his big year thusfar.  Oswalt is probably their most tradeable player, but he's having a down year, too, and is more or less the face of the franchise.  The other big problem here is that Houston has historically overvalued its chances to compete, and has been loath to get rid of guys that can contribute to what will be at best a mediocre season for this club.  There are plenty of teams who need pitching, and you can bet that Roy Oswalt has a big enough profile to bring back a top-level prospect from some team in desperate need of one more pitcher to put them over the top.  We like the idea of the Astros trading Roy Oswalt to the Rangers for CF Engel Beltre and RHP Michael Main.  Both are the sort of high-ceiling players that the Astros need in their system, and Oswalt - along with the possible influx of youngsters like Neftali Feliz and Derek Holland - should provide the Rangers with the sort of pitching help they need to compete in the division.  

Prognostication: This is an interesting division that has a lot to sort out over the remainder of the season.  The Brewers have likely been playing over their head, the Reds remain intriguing, the Cardinals seem to always be competitive despite a team that looks underwhelming on paper, and the Cubs have been underperformed.  Really, the  Brewers are the only team that's been firing on all cylinders thusfar, as the Reds should be hitting better, the Cardinals have an utter lineup outage outside of Pujols, and the Cubs have too much talent to play sub-.500 ball for the rest of the year.  Unfortunately for Milwaukee fans, it's doubtful they can put it together like this for an entire year.  We expect the cream to rise to the top as more games get played - the Cubs should make it to the top, the Reds look well-poised to stay in second, and the Cards look viable at third.  We see the Brewers swapping spots with the Cubs as their non-stars start playing like their old selves.  The Pirates and Astros are bad enough to make their finish a near-coin flip, but the Pirates just look like they have more talent across the board.  Really, the only reason for the 'Stros not to deal Oswalt and/or Tejada is to avoid a last place finish, and that should never be a team's goal.

Final Standings

1. Chicago Cubs

2. Cincinnati Reds

3. St. Louis Cardinals

4. Milwaukee Brewers

5. Pittsburgh Pirates

6. Houston Astros

New Game of the Day: 4/6/09

Shame that the best game of the day gets spoiled for weather.  We suppose we might as well pick a new game to spotlight for our devoted KCSD reader(s?).  KCSD: a blog that cares about you!

Anyway, which to choose?  Normally, we'd be all about pitching matchups like King Felix and Francisco Liriano dueling in Minnesota (which we somehow forgot to mention in our last GOTD post; we wholeheartedly apologize for the egregious oversight), but those teams don't figure to be any fun to watch.  Same problem with Cubs-'Stros, Tigers-Jays, and Rockies-D'backs.  Since the cream of the crop is off the board, we're going to say that you should tune into the Mets-Reds tilt on ESPN at 1:10 EST.  Johan vs. Harang, y'all.  Should be a good one.

Johan Santana (0-0, 0.00) vs. Aaron Harang (0-0, 0.00)

New York Mets                                               Cincinnati Reds

SS Jose Reyes                                                    CF Willy Taveras

LF Daniel Murphy                                            2B Brandon Phillips

3B David Wright                                               RF Jay Bruce

CF Carlos Beltran                                                        1B Joey Votto

1B Carlos Delgado                                             LF Chris Dickerson

RF Ryan Church                                               3B Edwin Encarnacion

2B Luis Castillo                                                 SS Alex Gonzalez

C Brian Schneider                                             C Ramon Hernandez

P Johan Santana                                                          P Aaron Harang

We're picking the Mets in this one, because...well, because it's Johan.  The guy's still one of the upper echelon pitchers in the NL, even if he's lost a step in his 30's.  We do expect this to be closer than some might expect, though; the Reds' lineup can mash with the best of them, even if they do have Willy Taveras up top.  And our goodness, the bottom of the Mets' lineup is awful.  Their 1-5 can win games by themselves (except for Delgado; we're not sold on his resurrection last year), but when you're trotting out blurry vision-havin', head-poundin', sensitive-to-light Ryan Church, the offensive suck that are Luis Castillo (to be fair, it's hard to hit with that contract hanging around him), Brian Schneider, and a pitcher...you could be in trouble if some of the top bats go cold.  The Reds look much more balanced, and we do like them to surprise during the season.  Just...not today.

KCSD GOTD Record: 0-1. 0-2 if you count us picking a game that isn't even going to be played today as the GOTD. 

Team Preview: Cincinnati Reds

So in the spirit of Spring Training, it's time to start up with team previews. Teams will be previewed in approximately the same order as we like them. We try not to accord too much favor or bias around here, but...we like some teams more than others. This will only be reflected in the order of the previews. We promise. Sort of. Anyway, the general idea is that we'll talk a bit about the team to preface it all, mention how they did last year and what they've done to address the situation this year. We'll guess at what they will look like on the diamond, and who will log significant innings and/or saves in Around the Horn and From the Bump, respectively. Furthermore, we'll use PECOTA to help us predict what they'll each do this year. Should be great fun. Let's get going.

Time for the original baseballers, the Cincinnati Reds.  The Dusty Baker-managed crew scored 4.35 runs per game, (23rd) and allowed a similarly poor 4.95 runs per game (23rd).  That's consistent sub-mediocrity right there, folks.  The Reds have a few exciting young stars to build around...and not much else.  1B Joey Votto, RF Jay Bruce, 2B Brandon Phillips, and, if we're being generous, 3B Edwin Encarnacion make for a solid lineup core, and RHPs Edinson Volquez, Aaron Harang, and Johnny Cueto are an excellent top three pitchers.  After that, it's a big gap down to the next best producers.  At least RHP Micah Owings (Green Wave!) is interesting for his bat, and CF Willy Taveras is a great one-tool guy to replace departed no-tool OF Corey Patterson (notable for being the single worst player in baseball last year...except for Coco Crisp who always holds that honor). 

Departed slugger Adam Dunn leaves a big hole in the lineup, and a somewhat smaller hole in left field; prospect Chris Dickerson, who OPS'd over 1.000 in his 122-AB showing last season is the favorite to get most of the time there.  He will probably some ABs against lefties to former Ray slugger Jonny Gomes, who likes to celebrate winning the division by drinking Bud Light out of Dioner Navarro's cup.  And who doesn't?  Willy Taveras came over from Colorado, where his skill (speed) served him well; the spacious outfield of Mile High demands a good deal of speed from the outfielders.  The bandbox that is Great American Ballpark (beautiful stadium), however, isn't quite so challenging.  Sure, Taveras can still use that speed to steal bases (68 last year), only he's never on base (OBP dropped from a very encouraging .367 in 2007 to .309 last year, more in line with his career .331 mark).  If he can correct that, and Great American gives his power a helping hand, he could be a useful player. C Ramon Hernandez, acquired in a trade for utility guy Ryan Freel and his partner in crime, Farney, will handle the backstop duties for a year or two while the team searches for a more permanent solution. And on the exciting young prospect front, OF Drew Stubbs and 1B Yonder Alonso are both nearly ready; the challenge will be to find spots for them both.  If Stubbs can handle center, he could bump Taveras to the bench, but otherwise left field is going to get very crowded.  Stubbs, Chris Dickerson, and either Joey Votto or Yonder Alonso would be in a competition for ABs there.  We smell trade bait (and it smells delicious)!

As for the pitching, Volquez, Harang, and Cueto will be expected to anchor the rotation, and Francisco Cordero is on hand (at the low cost of 4 years and $48 million!) to close out games.  Cordero's presence on this team kinda confuses us; why spend lots on a closer when you're not a great team?  Anyway, RHP Bronson Arroyo will bring his brand of mediocrity to the four spot, and Micah Owings (Green Wave!) and former prospect Homer Bailey will try to piece together 200 innings in the fifth spot.  The bullpen has some solid arms, too, so the pitching should be better than last year's subpar showing.

2009 Forecast

PECOTA projected record: 77-85, 4th in NL Central

KCSD projected record: 81-81, 3rd in NL Central

We think the Reds can be a good sleeper team this year, and we think that PECOTA overvalues the Cardinals.  This team, with a couple of breaks, could easily find itself in contention for the division title.  Of course, it seems like people are always saying that about the Reds, so take that with a grain of salt, we suppose.

Around the Horn

C Ramon Hernandez: .264/.331/.426, 19 HR.  Moving to Great American should help Hernandez's power return to where it was a couple of years ago, and he looks to have the bat to be useful for another season or two.  Catchers don't age well, of course, so we may be seeing the beginning of the end of his career.

1B Joey Votto: .295/.376/.528, 27 HR, 11 SB.  The Canadian slugger is an exciting young bat who's looking to build on a ROY-worthy campaign.  It looks like he's starting to grow into his power potential, so if he can keep up the excellent contact rates he displayed in the minors, we could have a premiere slugger on our hands.

2B Brandon Phillips: .282/.334/.489, 20 HR, 20 SB.  Phillips has finally arrived as a consistent regular.  He isn't living up to all the hype heaped upon him as a prospect, but 20-20 from a second baseman is more than enough for us.  Food for thought: He, along with Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore, was traded from the Expos to the Indians for Bartolo Colon.  An underrated candidate in the pantheon of terrible trades, if you ask us.

3B Edwin Encarnacion: .283/.365/.493, 23 HR.  Encarnacion could be on the verge of a major breakout in his age-26 season.  With any luck, he just might become the best Encarnacion to ever play in the majors! (Sorry, Juan).

SS Jeff Keppinger: .296/.353/.372, 4 HR.  This spot might well go to Alex Gonzalez, but we don't like him very much, and think Keppinger is the better player.  Hopefully shortstop isn't the cursed place it was last year for the Reds; both Keppinger and Gonzalez suffered knee injuries.  Gonzalez is the better defender, Keppinger the better hitter; WHO KNOWS WHAT WILL HAPPEN?!

LF Chris Dickerson/Jonny Gomes: .265/.355/.500, 31 HR, 25 SB.  Some great counting stats from these two gentlemen.  If Dickerson and Gomes are used exclusively according to their strengths, this could be an excellent left field.

CF Willy Taveras: .265/.320/.325, 1 HR, 59 SB.  Players like Taveras used to be loved in baseball. We bet they look at old sepia toned photos of similar speedy slap hitters and cry.

RF Jay Bruce: .280/.350/.510, 25 HR, 12 SB.  Bruce capped off a meteoric rise through the Reds' system with a fantastic opening week...and then regressed to rookiedom.  His ending line (.254/.314/.453) was nothing to be ashamed of, especially for a 21-year old, but he has lots of room for improvement.  Expect him to start showing it.

From the Bump: Starters

RHP Aaron Harang: 210 IP, 3.90 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 200 K, 45 BB.  Harang was the most underrated ace in all of MLB for several years, but he struggled with forearm problems last season and his performance suffered.  We hope he gets back to his old levels of dominance - at 31, there's hope for a rebound - because he's too ugly to get girls if he's not very good.  Chicks dig the long ball - pitchers gotta be real good to impress.

RHP Edinson Volquez: 160 IP, 4.20 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 155 K, 80 BB.  Volquez was a revelation last year, but we're expecting some regression this year.  Plus, the jump in innings pitched (up to 196 last year from an aggregate total of about 160 worries us some, coming from such a young arm.  We expect some injury trouble.

RHP Bronson Arroyo: 200 IP, 4.50 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 155 K, 70 BB.  Arroyo has been unexpectedly soild during his Cincinnati tenure; in fact, he was downright dominant in '06.  The last two years have been a bit of a regression; they looked a lot like what we're projecting him for this year.

RHP Johnny Cueto: 190 IP, 4.30 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 170 K, 70 BB.  Like Bruce, Cueto was excellent early in the year, though he did last a couple months before slowing down.  The young, undersized Cueto may have worn down a bit; it'll be interesting to see how Dusty Baker runs him and Volquez.

RHP Homer Bailey: 100 IP, 5.50 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 75 K, 50 BB.  Bailey was rushed to the majors in '07, and struggled mightily.  Last year was terrible as well; even in the minors, Bailey did little to reassure his believers.  But we still count ourselves in that group; he still has the great stuff that caught peoples' attention, and he's still just 23.  We're not being very optimistic in our projection, but we're hoping for better things.

From the Bump: Relievers

Closer RHP Francisco Cordero: 60 IP, 3.29 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 67 K, 27 BB, 35 SV.  Cordero still has an electric arm at 34, and we expect him to use it to great effect.  Hopefully for the Reds, he'll be around to use it when the Reds are really good.

Setup man RHP Mike Lincoln: 60 IP, 4.25 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 45 K, 25 BB.  We're giving Lincoln the nod as the primary setup man since he just signed a new 2 year contract, but as you can see, he's not a dominant force...though neither is anyone else besides Cordero.  The hope for the Reds is that the bullpen can just be competent enough to not blow too many potential wins.