Season Preview: St. Louis Cardinals

It occurred to us as we were working through this list in alphabetical order that while 'St. Louis' appears after 'Seattle,' the actual name of the team - i.e. 'Saint Louis' - does not. We apologize to offended Cards fans, and blame WikiAnswers for you.

ANYWAY, 4 days left til Opening Day. You know the drill by now: breakdowns of lineup, rotation, bullpen, and a predicted record plus beer so that Pittsburgh fans can drink in appropriate style. Let's hop to the St. Louis Cardinals.


Lineup: Albert Pujols is the best player in baseball and Matt Holliday is here to provide lineup protection, however false the notion may be. Or perhaps Pujols is Holliday's protection. Either way, two great hitters in the middle of the lineup here, and Colby Rasmus is, in our not-so-humble opinion, ready to break out this year. Beyond them, there're a few quality guys, but it's not exactly an imposing group of hitters the Cards will be rolling out. David Freese isn't a bad player, but he is a rookie, and his pedigree isn't great. Brendan Ryan is a great gloveman, but not so much of a hitter - you know, the proverbial all-glove, no-stick shortstop. Skip Schumaker had a bit of a rough transition to second base last season, but if the team intends on having him start there, they could certainly do worse - and Felipe Lopez is a wonderful insurance policy for all three of the above guys, though his glove may not play at short. Yadier Molina is by all accounts a marvelous defensive catcher, and he's started to come around some with the bat; hopefully for the Cardinals, he'll be more Bengie than Jose with the stick. Not that either are great, but still. And Ryan Ludwick, who broke out at age 29 and promptly faded back into mediocrity, has the right field job for better or worse.

Rotation: Like with the lineup, there's two stars that lead this group and somewhat useful talent that follows them. Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright were in the Cy Young conversation last season, and if Carpenter stays healthy, they could very well repeat the feat. Beyond them, Brad Penny will try to regain his fastball and perhaps benefit from Dave Duncan's tutelage as the #3 guy, and Kyle Lohse and Jaime Garcia bring up the rear. Neither of them are particularly good. Well, Garcia might become good, but he's a rookie, so our expectations are tempered.

Bullpen: Ryan Franklin was named the closer last year, and managed a 1.92 ERA...which sort of pales when compared to his 3.31 FIP and 4.27 xFIP. What we're saying is, he got lucky, and to expect the same kind of season from him is perhaps unwise. Kyle McClellan, who had been in the running for the 5th starter job, had a decent season last year, as did Blake Hawksworth, Trever Miller and lefty Dennys Reyes. So on the whole, this looks like a good unit - but a repeat of the success they all had is unlikely. Expect a good-not-great performance this season.

Overall: The Cardinals will go as far as their four stars take them. If Albert Pujols keeps up his march to Cooperstown, Matt Holliday regresses only slightly from last season, and Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter stay healthy, then they're a formidable squad - particularly if Colby Rasmus and - to a lesser extent - Yadier Molina take steps forward. They're not a great team, but in the weak NL Central, that doesn't matter - they're the clear favorites here.

Predicted Record: 86-76, 1st place NL Central

Beer: Stone Face Ale. Brewed by Anheuser-Busch (a St. Louis-based company, of course), it often gets lost in the sea of its Budweiser, Bud Light, Michelob, O'Doul's, and Natural Light/Ice (we kid) kin. But Anheuser-Busch has some quality, lesser-known brews. The analogy here? Colby Rasmus:Albert Pujols et al:: Stone Face:Budweiser (viz the King of Beers, not, y'know, actually good. Take the nickname as gospel here). So henceforth, Colby Rasmus shall be known as Stone Face. And we don't care if doesn't catch on anywhere else.

Why Your Team Will Blow it in the Playoffs: St. Louis Cardinals

Well, it appears that just about all the playoff spots are decided. Per the excellent coolstandings.com, no team among the Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers, and Rockies have a great shot of making the playoffs - barring a miraculous late season run, or the Rangers gelling together despite injuries and making good on their 36% chance of sneaking into the playoffs.

Now, this lack of drama is no fun at all in September, and it's nigh-unacceptable in the playoffs. So rather than just let things play out like they will, which is to say "predictably," we're going to try to throw a wrench into the hopes and dreams of fans of each of the aforementioned playoff probables. Because none of them are the Braves. AND SO: onward with the hating. Up next: the St. Louis Cardinals, the team with the only double-digit division lead.

Biggest Strength: Their stars.  Albert Pujols is, of course, the best player in the league, and he's been worth 8 wins by himself.  Matt Holliday, since coming over, has been hitting .378/.434/.701 with 12 dongers in 189 PA.  Chris Carpenter is the second-best NL pitcher behind Tim Lincecum, with a league-leading 2.16 ERA and a sparkling 4.30 K/BB ratio.  Adam Wainwright has been a horse, posting a 2.59 ERA over a league-leading 205 IP.  He's got a little less control than Carpenter, but better strikeout stuff, including one of the best curveballs in the game.  And John Smoltz has been great since coming over, with a neat 28.00 K/BB ratio (!) and a 0.91 WHIP.

But Wait a Minute!

How, exactly, is this team planning on scoring runs?  Pujols is otherworldly, Holliday's been mashing, and...well...look out for Jarrett Hoffpauir?  Julio Lugo?  Beyond the 3-4 in this lineup, no one can hit their way out of a wet paper bag.  And come on - there's no way Holliday can keep hitting at this pace.  That .378/.434/.701 line we mentioned earlier?  Compare that to a career .319/.388/.549 clip.  Want some more hatin?  Well, you knew this was coming.  On the road in his career, he's been hitting .283/.353/.456.  So there you see some Coors Field effects.  What we're saying is, as his season goes on, his line is going to regress to the mean level he's been demonstrating throughout his career. 

Of course, his career mean would still make him seem studly in comparison to some of the guys the Cards are running out there.  Ryan Ludwick (.804) is the only guy OPSing over .750, and the next closest is Skip Schumacker's .746.  Do you fear Yadier Molina, Julio Lugo, Mark DeRosa, Colby Rasmus, Brendan Ryan, Rick Ankiel, or Brian Barden?  Probably not, and you're not even a big league pitcher (probably).  They score a measly 4.58 runs per game, 18th in MLB - not exactly a championship caliber offense. 

No, this is going to be a team that relies on its pitching to get its wins.  And with a rotation of Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright - a latter-day Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling, for our money -, a surprisingly good Joel Pineiro (3.01 FIP, 1.11 WHIP) and a resurgent John Smoltz, they could do just that.  And as for the bullpen, they've had a spectacular year from Ryan Franklin (of all people), who's posted a 1.67 ERA and a 4.265 WXRL.  Trever Miller, Kyle McLellan, and Blake Hawksworth have proven capable as well, and they'll have the useful Kyle Lohse as a long man.  But can such a staff shut down the Dodgers, or even the Yankees should they get that far?  Well, at the very least it should make for a fun series.  

Here's Looking At: Albert Pujols

We feel like HLA: has unfairly focused on the negative thusfar.  We profiled Matt Holliday when he was slumping, David Ortiz when he was slumping - and it was unconfirmed that he was on steroids, and he's still slumping anyway so this is all sort of redundant -and...well, ok, it's been a short-lived series.  But today we want to take a look at the best player in the game today, and one of the best of all time.  We feel like despite his towering greatness, Albert Pujols has not gotten the recognition he deserves.  This may or may not be true; we don't exactly claim to have our fingers on the pulse of sports journalism.  HOWEVER, we're going to pretend like we're on to something here and forge right ahead.

Now, before we get into any stats or "research," we'd like to present a short .gif we saw on Viva El Birdos of Pujols' swing slowed down into frame-by-frame goodness....and is there ever a lot of goodness.  The swing is a thing of beauty, every movement compact, powerful, and dedicated to hitting a baseball better than anyone on the planet right now.  We can't really do it justice; go take a look-see for yourself.

Don't be ashamed if you watched it a few times.  And if your mouth fell open.  These are normal reactions.  SO, onward and upward, eh?  What's this guy done in the past?  Well, you might look at the career 172 OPS+.  Or the .333/.427/.628 career line.  Or the fact that since coming into the league in 2001, he has yet to OPS less than .955.  Or the fact that he's already hit over 350 HR - and is the third youngest to reach that milestone.  Or the fact that he's walked 233 times more than he's struck out.  Or that he's an 8-time All-Star, and missed out on 9 straight selections because despite finishing 2nd in the MVP voting his second year he somehow wasn't elected to the ASG.  He's a former Rookie of the Year, 2-time MVP (probably should've been at least 3 times), and is well on his way to another this season.  He's hit at least .314 each of his 9 years in the bigs; no one else has ever done that.  He's hit at least 30 HR in each of his 9 years in the bigs; no one else has ever done that.  He's fourth all-time in OPS, and the four-time Silver Slugger also has a Gold Glove to his credit (however worthless those are, the man is a superb defender).  

Oh, and did we mention that he's been doing this despite playing with a shredded UCL that should require Tommy John surgery, and forced his move from left field to first base?  But that instead of undergoing the surgery he needs, he chose to have a nerve transposition surgery so that he merely wouldn't feel the pain that he feels whenever he straightens his arm?  The guy is too good not to have some kind of handicap, we guess.

But hey, enough of the past.  Let's have a quick look at what he's done so far:

.321/.445/.675/1.119, 39 HR, 105 RBI, 91 BB, 49 K, 36 IBB, 191 OPS+

The bolded stats are ones where he's a league leader.  Further, if you care for advanced analysis - and we hope you do! - he's already worth almost 7 wins above replacement, and projects to be worth easily another 3 by the end of the season.  His fielding is superb - worth a win itself, according to Baseball Prospectus - and leads the majors in EqA.  His closest competitor for that title, Joe Mauer, is having maybe the best season ever for a catcher; the next closest guy, Prince Fielder, is a full 21 points behind.  Oh, and did we mention that he has the fourth-highest EqA OF ALL TIME behind only Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, and Barry Bonds?  That seems relevant. 

The question, then, is what we can we expect from him going forward?  Is he going to keep being El Hombre, the guy our grandkids ask us about?  Well, Baseball Prospectus thinks so; PECOTA projects him as a 4-5 win player when he's 35.  If he hits homers at the pace PECOTA sees - which, keep in mind, seems very conservative to us - he'll have 619 at 35.  And that's assuming he doesn't hit any more in the remainder of this season.  And unless he suddenly loses his batting eye, he'll accomplish this feat of power while remaining one of the most patient and skilled contact hitters in generations.  And as a further piece of evidence of his bulletproof nature: he hits .351/.460/.626 against lefties and .332/.429/.586 against righties.  So either way you pitch him, he's still the premier hitter in the game.  And lest you think he's some sort of hulking bopper who's a liability on the bases, consider that while he's not been a great base stealer in his career - successful only 66% of the time - he went 16/18 a few years ago and is 12/15 this year.  

What we're trying to say is, the only weakness this guy seems to have is the fact that his elbow might decide to pop at any moment. And yet...he's never played in less than 143 games.  So, while hoping with all our might that we're not jinxing him, he seems wildly durable.  And...we're going to leave it at that, and back away slowly. 

Well, besides the elbow, there's also the question of his age.  As a Dominican Republic export, and especially with the age-related revelations we've seen from players like Miguel Tejada and Vladimir Guerrero, we can't truly be sure that he's only 29.  Oh, we forgot to mention that - he's accomplished all of those astounding above feats despite the fact that he won't even be 30 until next year.  Whoops!  But, yeah, the guy's certainly looked old his whole career - we remember being shocked that a 21 year old could have such a strongly receding hairline - but, hey, everyone ages differently.  Just ask Greg Oden*.

That's right: Greg Oden.  We're not afraid to make cross-sport jokes on this here blog.  We're growing into something unstoppable, we keep telling everyone. 

And if all that isn't enough to make your jaw drop, really, isn't that one home run sufficent?  You know, THAT one.  In the NLCS, or something.  2005?  Yeah, that sounds right.  Against...Houston?  We think so.  One of those Texas teams.  Let's check Google...

Oh, baby...don't be so cruel!

Anyway, yeah, there was looking at the best player around.  We hope you take the time to enjoy him properly.

The Quick Hit Catchup

We spent the last month in Europe, and, well, it's not a great place to keep up on baseball news. But we pieced together what we could find from perusals of USA Today and the occasional internet access, and took notes on what jumped out at us. Since it's old news, we'll offer merely a sentence or two analysis of the important stuff, and then it's back to regularly scheduled programming.

David Ortiz: So he did steroids....big deal. I don't think anyone's really THAT shocked - we mean, just look at his body and his late-career number spike. What we do find noteworthy is that despite the same evidence being leveled against him as Alex Rodriguez faced, people are defending Ortiz, saying that the list may contain contaminated samples and false positives. When A-Rod's name was revealed to be on the list, it was just outright condemnation. It's hard to feel sorry for a guy making $300 million....but we kinda do.

Jeff Francoeur - Ryan Church Trade: Wahoo! As Braves fans, we're thrilled to see Francoeur go - and not only go, but to go to a division rival whom he can sink, and to bring back a legitimate talent as he departs! Church isn't great, but he is better than Frenchy, and we're glad he's a Brave.

Freddy Sanchez - Tim Alderson Trade: Wowee...Brian Sabean does it again. Look, Alderson may not pan out, and the Giants have plenty of pitching, but he's still one of the premier pitching prospects in the system, and one of the more noteworthy prospects in the game. Together with Madison Bumgarner, they had a great 1-2 punch coming through the ranks. Now...they ship off half of that for a middling second baseman who hits an empty .300 or so. We remember a few years ago, Yahoo Fantasy Baseball had a competition where you could win a spot in the SF front office for winning some competition...we'd bet whoever wins that could avoid doing as poor a job as Sabean is.

Scott Rolen - Edwin Encarnacion: Huh? Why trade for a vet at a position where you already have a good young player when you're not really even close to competing? What does Rolen bring to the table that Encarnacion doesn't? Where is the benefit in this trade for the Reds?

George Sherrill to the Dodgers: We like this a lot if the Dodgers don't try to get cute and give him closer duties over the excellent but oft-injured Jonathan Broxton. If he's a situational lefty, this is a fantastic addition to the strongest team in the NL.

Orlando Cabrera to the Twins: Sure, why not? Add a nice glove and an OK bat to a middle infield that had been struggling, and now shortstop and second base are a plus for the Twins. Between Cabrera, Brendan Harris, and Nick Punto, you've got three quality guys you can move around in there - depth that could pay off in spades during the playoff chase.

Jake Peavy to the White Sox: Well, Round 2 worked out for the Sox. We're not totally sold on this trade - we think we might rather have Poreda and Richard than an injured - albeit rehabbing well - Peavy, especially once you consider the transition to the homer-happy Cell from homer-humbling Petco - and that's not to mention the uptick in difficulty going from the NL to the AL. We hope Peavy recovers well and is dominant again, but we have our doubts - and the Sox may have overpaid.

Casey Kotchman - Adam LaRoche Swap: We like this, too, if only because of Braves nostalgia. We never did care for Kotchman, and even if his glove outstrips LaRoche's by a long shot, LaRoche's bat is something Kotchman just can't match. The Red Sox will be happy to have another good glove at the corner, but the Braves needed more thump in their lineup, and this incremental upgrade should help.

Cubs Trade for Lefties: Ugh. Trading Kevin Hart and Miguel Ascenio - decent players, both - for a pair of scrap heap lefties in John Grabow and Tom Gorzelanny - who was in AAA no less - just smacks of a bad, bad deal to us. But...the Cubs must feel like they've identified a problem and are taking steps to address it, so more power to 'em, we guess.

Pirates Dismantling: We saw this on FanGraphs: the Pirates have traded 22 years worth of player control for 94 years worth. Without even getting into the list of who was traded for whom, that's a positive step for a young, low-revenue team. They need players they can control long-term and build around, and have needed that for some time. If their pitching doesn't regress too badly over the course of this season and the next, and Alderson, Milledge, and the other high-ceiling guys they acquired pan out, we could actually be talking about a good team in Pittsburgh for the first time since we here have been alive. And we are quite excited about that.

Cliff Lee to the Phillies: Win-win. The Indians get a nice return, but not so rich that the Phillies regret it. The Phils held onto Kyle Drabek and J.A. Happ - a sticking point in the Roy Halladay deal - and managed to bring back the ace they wanted. The Indians get some of the best prospects in the Phillies' system and with any luck could create a decent nucleus out of those parts and what they've already got.

Matt Holliday to the Cardinals: Fantastic pickup for the Cards. They desperately needed lineup protection, and since Holliday's been slugging over .800 since coming over, we'd say they got it. They did have to give up their best prospect in Brett Wallace and a great pitching prospect in Jess Todd, but that's a deal you have to make if you're the St. Louis GM - particularly since Wallace was likely to end up at first base, a position where the Redbirds are pretty well set.

Alright, that was the quick and dirty getting up to date post. We realize that the analysis there was pretty terrible, but we'll try to step our game up in the coming days. Oh - and to continue the quick hit format...

Adrian Beltre: Is a fool. No cup? In the Major Leagues? No man deserves that kind of injury, but...he was kind of inviting it, no?

Here's Looking At: Matt Holliday

"Here's Looking At:" is yet another of our sure-to-be-forgotten serial posts. In these posts, we'll take a look at a player whose performance - whether unexpectedly good or bad - merits a closer look. We'll try to sort out what's going right or wrong, as the case may be, and offer a prognosis on their future.

Today, we're looking at A's OF Matt Holliday. Supposed to be one of the premier bats in the league, and the guy who would bring lots of added thump to the middle of the punchless A's lineup, Holliday has instead fallen flat on his face outside of hitter-friendly Coors Field.  Which, we guess, is not entirely shocking; there is, of course, a history of guys like Andres Galarraga, Dante Bichette, and Todd Helton, among others, struggling when not in the friendly confines of their offense-inflating home park.  Indeed, Holliday himself has struggled on the road throughout his career.  Let's take a look at some of his numbers.

2009 -  .240/.308/.388, 4 HR, 10 BB, 24 K, 7.6 BB%, 19.8 K%, 9.8 HR/FB%.

Career - .316/.383/.545, 8.6 BB%, 19.0 K%, 17.2 HR/FB%.

So, from this we can see that he's not hitting for as much average or power in Oakland as he was in the rest of his career (obviously), and that his walk rate is slightly down, his strikeout rate is slightly up, and he's hitting a lot less homers per fly ball.  This means that he's feeling the difference between Oakland's spacious stadium and the homer-condoning grounds in Denver, and also that he's probably pressing because of it.  But let's not make general statements; let's look at some more numbers.

Career @ Home: .351/.418/.634, 1.052 OPS, 125 tOPS+

Career on Road: .279/.345/.453, .798 OPS, 73 OPS+.

Wowee.  So Holliday becomes Albert Pujols (career .334/.425/.625) at home, and on the road, he turns into Melvin Mora (career .280/.355/.442).  Dr. Pujols and Mr. Mora?  This is one of the more pronounced splits we've ever seen, and the tOPS shows it.  What that number means is that, 100 being average, any number greater than 100 represents a positive difference in the split and any number below represents a negative difference in the shift.  So as good as he is at home, he's equally mediocre on the road. That should tell us something right there: teams should've been smart enough to leave him alone and let him inflate his stats with Coors' thin air. Though we guess Huston Street and Carlos Gonzalez aren't exactly a king's ransom.  Let's break down what he's doing at the plate to see if that holds any answers.

2009 - swings at 26.2% of pitches out of the zone, 69.4% in the zone, at 47% of pitches overall, and is making contact 77.7% of the time.

Career - swings at 25.2% of pitches out of the zone, 78.3% in the zone, at 52.2% of pitches overall, and made contact 77.7% of the time.

So he's swinging at a few more pitches that are outside of the zone, but isn't pulling the trigger as much on pitches at all, let alone inside the zone, where he's significantly cut down his swing rate.  So maybe he's trying to be more patient, to make up for the lack of tater tots with a greater walk rate.  Maybe he thinks that Billy Beane wrote Moneyball and his only way to stick with the team is to adhere to the book's preaching of the values of the walk.  We don't pretend to know.  In any event, we think the swing data is inconclusive.  So, let's look at the most frequently culpapable number that causes slumps: BABIP.

Batting Average on Balls In Play measures a player's batting average...but only on the balls he hits in play.  So, while batting average takes into account strikeouts and such, BABIP only measures how often the batter reaches base when he puts the ball in play.  As such, the average rates are higher than regular batting average rates; .300 for hitters is pretty good, but you'd definitely prefer it to be higher.  

So what's Holliday's career BABIP?  Well, we just happen to have it right here: .352.  An exceptional number, to be sure - one that, were any lesser player to post it through a couple of weeks or months, we'd be quick to dismiss as flukish, and the result of a small sample size.  

What's his BABIP in 2009?  Glad you asked!  It's a whopping - are you ready for this?! - .269.  The dude's getting unlucky with the balls he's putting in play.  And yet, there's still cause for concern.  While this number would normally increase as a matter of regression to the mean, the biggest determinant in a BABIP rise - line drive rate - is still poor for Holliday.  He's hitting fewer line drives this year (14.4%) than he has in his career (20.2%).  Furthermore, he's popping up on more balls - 42.3% this year vs. 36.4% for his career.  Basically, it looks like he's made a habit of getting under the ball this year.  This discrepancy is easily caused by a change in swing, loading patterns, or injury and the resulting change in swing path.  So because Holliday's hitting more balls in the air, maybe his back shoulder's hurting him and he's dropping it during his swing, causing him to get underneath the ball and put it high in the air.  Who knows?  The point is, Holliday's certainly not looking like the hitter he once was...and by once, we mean last year.   Oakland better hope he turns it around in a hurry if they hope to have a chance to hang with the resurgent Rangers and always dangerous Angels in the AL West race. 

Our prognosis: health and/or swing issues are preventing Holliday from getting a good whack at the ball.  He's getting underneath balls instead of driving them, resulting in a massive dropoff in his slash stats.  Or, maybe moving to Oakland's stadium - which doesn't just neutralize home runs, but also has a huge foul ground, causing more catchable popups - is just turning more of his line drives into fly ball outs.  If nothing else, the plate discipline is still there, so if he can somehow salvage his power, he can be a viable force again.  More balls need to fall in, and his line drive rate will have to return to his career mean, but we're getting to the point in the season where significant, prolonged slumps have actual meaning instead of being functions of a small sample size.