Season Preview: Philadelphia Phillies

Well we've got 10 (we just realized that we've been counting down til April 5th. Because we're nothing if not attentive.) days left until Opening Day, which means it's season preview time. We'll be running it down team by team, with an added new wrinkle this time around: the beer of choice for fans of the team to enjoy whilst watching their team take the field! Nothing like that to help get you through a baseball season, especially if you're from Pittsburgh. Up next: the Philadelphia Phillies.


Lineup: The Phillies can hit the ball. That's this lineup summed up very briefly. Chase Utley is one of the best players in baseball, Ryan Howard is the premier power bat in the league, and Jayson Werth  has been one of the most productive outfielders in the league in the past few years (no word how his new beard will affect his play). Jimmy Rollins used to be in the this discussion before his abysmal 2009 season, but it's not out of the question to think that he will rebound this year. Shane Victorino has made his case to be included in the group of elite hitters from this lineup, and should continue to improve. Beyond that group, Raul Ibanez is a decent enough hitter for left field, and you could do worse than to have Placido Polanco at third. Carlos Ruiz - CHOOCH! - will be the backstop for this squad, and while he's not much with the bat, he's shown quite a bit of flair with the glove. Basically, this team will get their runs - as long as their key contributors stay healthy. Because like the Yankees, there is not a lot of depth to be had here.


Rotation: They did improve by swapping Cliff Lee for  Roy Halladay (ignoring all the other parts of the deal), but we're not so sure how good this group is going to be. Halladay and Hamels are a legitimate star-caliber 1/2, but to say that we have doubts about Joe Blanton, J.A. Happ, Kyle Kendrick, and Jamie Moyer is to put it lightly. Blanton showed an uptick in his strikeout rate recently, but we're not really buying it as he benefited from luck last season. Speaking of luck, Happ was extraordinarily lucky in 2009, and will be lucky to post a sub-4.50 FIP this season. Kendrick flat out doesn't have the skills to be in an MLB rotation, and Moyer, while he does have that veteran presence journalists love to write about, is in the same boat. 


Bullpen: This is something of a weak spot. Brad Lidge - he of the perfect season in 2008 (saves-wise, which take from that what you will) - was historically awful last season, and has a lot to prove in 2010. Ryan Madson was often Lidge's relief (which never bodes well when you're talking about, y'know, a relief corps), but he's not exactly the kind of pitcher you entrust with significant amounts of high leverage appearances. But then the same could be said about Danys Baez, J.C. Romero, Chad Durbin, Mike Zagurski, David Herndon and Antonio Bastardo. And in case you're wondering, no, that does not bode well for the Phitins.


Overall: The Phils can hit the cover off the ball, and their 1/2 starters are hard to beat. Beyond that, though, you're talking about a very flawed squad. A lot is going to have to go right for them to be the dominant team that we've seen in recent years, but even without that, they should be talented enough to win the division. If, however, either Halladay or Hamels (and we simply cannot wait for the silly double-H merchandise to be printed up) falters or gets injured, then this team could be in some real trouble.


Predicted Record: 91-71, 1st place NL East


Beer: Samuel Smith's Imperial Stout. A potent lineup, the Phillies are equal to the 9% ABV that we see from (Slammin') Sammy Smith's powerful brew. Plus, Smith's is one of, if not the, best Imperial Stout out there - and the same can be said of the Phillies. It's not an inspired choice, to be sure, but hopefully it's heavy enough to keep Philly fans' mouths shut so they can appreciate - instead of complain about - a great team.

Why Your Team Will Blow it in the Playoffs: Philadelphia Phillies

Well, it appears that just about all the playoff spots are decided. Per the excellent coolstandings.com, no team among the Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers, and Rockies have a great shot of making the playoffs - barring a miraculous late season run, or the Rangers gelling together despite injuries and sneaking into the playoffs. 

Now, this lack of drama is no fun at all in September, and it's nigh-unacceptable in the playoffs. So rather than just let things play out like they will, which is to say "predictably," we're going to try to throw a wrench into the hopes and dreams of fans of each of the aforementioned playoff probables. Because none of them are the Braves. AND SO: onward with the hating. Up next: the WFC.

Biggest Strength: the middle of the order.  Chase Utley deserves to be at least mentioned in the MVP talk this year, even though Albert Pujols is the runaway winner.  He's played an excellent second base while mashing to the tune of a .296/.414/.542 line that's good for a .420 wOBA and making him already worth eight wins.  Jayson Werth has had a breakout year, slugging .519 and parking 33 HR - 2nd best on the team.  The leader in dongers, of course, is Ryan Howard, with 38.  His power production is actually down a little bit, but he's become a more balanced hitter, hitting .272/.350/.556 as compared to last year's .251/.339/.543.  Raul Ibanez, as everyone probably knows, hit something like 54 homers in the first half of the season and has come down a bit since, but he's still been good for a .382 wOBA, one point behind Howard. And Shane Victorino, the Flyin' Hawaiian, has added a potent bat (.300/.367/.460) to complement his excellent speed.  Those five have powered the Phillies to where they are right now.  

But Wait A Minute!

Didn't we forget someone, you might ask?  Well, no, we would tell you, because we're never wrong.  We would assume you're referring to former MVP Jimmy Rollins, and, well, he just hasn't been right all year.  He's going steal 30 bases, but he's actually cost the Phillies a run this year with his poor hitting, proving that while speed may never slump, it may suck.  Or something.  

Rollins' tough year isn't the only thing that's going to submarine the Phils, though.  Far from it!  For one thing, they don't have the lineup depth that, say, the Yankees do - after Utley, Werth, Howard, Ibanez, and Victorino, there aren't what you would call a lot of "quality" hitters on the roster.  Ben Francisco and Carlos Ruiz have hovered around an .800 OPS, but Francisco's only been around for 61 PAs, and Ruiz's contribution really only looks good because it comes from a thorougly mediocre group of guys - to wit, Eric Bruntlett, Matt Stairs, Chris Coste, John Mayberry, Greg Dobbs, and Paul Bako all have at least 85 PA. 

So if the Phils can't reliably outhit their opponent - admittedly a large logical leap considering the skill of their their five-man gauntlet - they're going to have to step it up in run prevention.  But can they?  Cliff Lee's a stud, and a recent rough patch (9+ ERA in his last couple starts, excluding last night) doesn't mean that he's in trouble, just that he had to regress from his utterly dominant first few starts as a Phillie.  So they've got themselves an ace.  After that, there's some quality to be had, but nothing overpowering.  Pedro Martinez has looked good since he joined the club* (5.67 K:BB, 3.65 FIP), but a high strand rate (86%) and a high age (38) hint at some regression.  Cole Hamels was great in last year's playoffs, but he's coming off of a career high in innnings (227), and has gone through some rough patches this year that have some wondering whether he's been focused enough on the season at hand.  Of course, that's the worst criticism we can find for the guy, since he's actually having essentially the same season as last year.  This surprised us, but it's true; check out the table.

Year	Age	Tm	ERA	GS	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA+	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2008	24	PHI	3.09	33	2	2	227.1	193	89	78	28	53	196	142	1.082	7.6	1.1	2.1	7.8	3.70
2009	25	PHI	4.21	28	2	2	169.0	181	81	79	22	37	147	102	1.290	9.6	1.2	2.0	7.8	3.97

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/16/2009.

His hit rate has gone up significantly, but that's partly due to a .343 BABIP.  That accounts for the increase in WHIP despite improved control, and his FIP of 3.77 is only five points higher than last year's.  So in reality, he's not as bad as he seems superficially, and he's not as good as he was in the playoffs.  Good enough guy to have as a number two starter, we suppose.  And the last spot will go to Joe Blanton, who's basically a league-average kind of guy.  He's learned how to strike guys out this year, posting  a career high 7.38 K/9 that easily bests his career total of 5.57.  The increase in strikeouts has come along with a large increase in the homers he gives up, though; his HR/9 of 1.51 is a tidy .5 greater than last year.  We'd say more, but, well, the talk of pitchers who give up lots of home runs reminds us of another Phillie that we're just chomping at the bit to write about.

*Did you know that in 1999, Pedro Martinez's banner year and arguably the greatest pitching season of all time, he had a .343 BABIP?  Jesus.  Let's revisit his line from that year.  

Year	W	L	W-L%	ERA	GS	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA+	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB	Awards
1999	23	4	.852	2.07	29	5	1	213.1	160	56	49	9	37	313	243	0.923	6.8	0.4	1.6	13.2	8.46	AS,CYA-1,MVP-2

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/16/2009.

And he did that with batters getting absurdly LUCKY.  That sort of boggles the mind, no?

We hope you guessed that we're talking about the one, the only, Brad Lidge.  Which gives us a great excuse to use this picture again!

Teeeheeheeheeehee.  Sorry.  In any event, after Lidge blew his like 38th save this year, Charlie Manuel finally stopped running him out there and depriving us of much glorious schadenfreude.  Seriously, the guy's been historically awful; his -2.5 WXRL is the lowest of any pitcher EVER who got as many save opportunities as Lidge has this year.  Which is absurd considering that he's pitching for a division champion.  Fortunately for the Phils, Ryan Madson is there to...well, blow more saves.  Yay!  When you consider that Chan Ho Park leads this unit in WXRL at 1.996, you have to figure there's some reason for concern here.  If the pen keeps handing back leads, the offense and starters are going to have to compensate, and they're going to have little room for error.  When one or two of the big bats goes cold, when Joe Blanton starts serving up gopher balls and Pedro Martinez reverts to Mets form, when Eric Bruntlett fails to convert an unassisted triple play...the Phillies will blow it.

 

Here's Looking At: Albert Pujols

We feel like HLA: has unfairly focused on the negative thusfar.  We profiled Matt Holliday when he was slumping, David Ortiz when he was slumping - and it was unconfirmed that he was on steroids, and he's still slumping anyway so this is all sort of redundant -and...well, ok, it's been a short-lived series.  But today we want to take a look at the best player in the game today, and one of the best of all time.  We feel like despite his towering greatness, Albert Pujols has not gotten the recognition he deserves.  This may or may not be true; we don't exactly claim to have our fingers on the pulse of sports journalism.  HOWEVER, we're going to pretend like we're on to something here and forge right ahead.

Now, before we get into any stats or "research," we'd like to present a short .gif we saw on Viva El Birdos of Pujols' swing slowed down into frame-by-frame goodness....and is there ever a lot of goodness.  The swing is a thing of beauty, every movement compact, powerful, and dedicated to hitting a baseball better than anyone on the planet right now.  We can't really do it justice; go take a look-see for yourself.

Don't be ashamed if you watched it a few times.  And if your mouth fell open.  These are normal reactions.  SO, onward and upward, eh?  What's this guy done in the past?  Well, you might look at the career 172 OPS+.  Or the .333/.427/.628 career line.  Or the fact that since coming into the league in 2001, he has yet to OPS less than .955.  Or the fact that he's already hit over 350 HR - and is the third youngest to reach that milestone.  Or the fact that he's walked 233 times more than he's struck out.  Or that he's an 8-time All-Star, and missed out on 9 straight selections because despite finishing 2nd in the MVP voting his second year he somehow wasn't elected to the ASG.  He's a former Rookie of the Year, 2-time MVP (probably should've been at least 3 times), and is well on his way to another this season.  He's hit at least .314 each of his 9 years in the bigs; no one else has ever done that.  He's hit at least 30 HR in each of his 9 years in the bigs; no one else has ever done that.  He's fourth all-time in OPS, and the four-time Silver Slugger also has a Gold Glove to his credit (however worthless those are, the man is a superb defender).  

Oh, and did we mention that he's been doing this despite playing with a shredded UCL that should require Tommy John surgery, and forced his move from left field to first base?  But that instead of undergoing the surgery he needs, he chose to have a nerve transposition surgery so that he merely wouldn't feel the pain that he feels whenever he straightens his arm?  The guy is too good not to have some kind of handicap, we guess.

But hey, enough of the past.  Let's have a quick look at what he's done so far:

.321/.445/.675/1.119, 39 HR, 105 RBI, 91 BB, 49 K, 36 IBB, 191 OPS+

The bolded stats are ones where he's a league leader.  Further, if you care for advanced analysis - and we hope you do! - he's already worth almost 7 wins above replacement, and projects to be worth easily another 3 by the end of the season.  His fielding is superb - worth a win itself, according to Baseball Prospectus - and leads the majors in EqA.  His closest competitor for that title, Joe Mauer, is having maybe the best season ever for a catcher; the next closest guy, Prince Fielder, is a full 21 points behind.  Oh, and did we mention that he has the fourth-highest EqA OF ALL TIME behind only Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, and Barry Bonds?  That seems relevant. 

The question, then, is what we can we expect from him going forward?  Is he going to keep being El Hombre, the guy our grandkids ask us about?  Well, Baseball Prospectus thinks so; PECOTA projects him as a 4-5 win player when he's 35.  If he hits homers at the pace PECOTA sees - which, keep in mind, seems very conservative to us - he'll have 619 at 35.  And that's assuming he doesn't hit any more in the remainder of this season.  And unless he suddenly loses his batting eye, he'll accomplish this feat of power while remaining one of the most patient and skilled contact hitters in generations.  And as a further piece of evidence of his bulletproof nature: he hits .351/.460/.626 against lefties and .332/.429/.586 against righties.  So either way you pitch him, he's still the premier hitter in the game.  And lest you think he's some sort of hulking bopper who's a liability on the bases, consider that while he's not been a great base stealer in his career - successful only 66% of the time - he went 16/18 a few years ago and is 12/15 this year.  

What we're trying to say is, the only weakness this guy seems to have is the fact that his elbow might decide to pop at any moment. And yet...he's never played in less than 143 games.  So, while hoping with all our might that we're not jinxing him, he seems wildly durable.  And...we're going to leave it at that, and back away slowly. 

Well, besides the elbow, there's also the question of his age.  As a Dominican Republic export, and especially with the age-related revelations we've seen from players like Miguel Tejada and Vladimir Guerrero, we can't truly be sure that he's only 29.  Oh, we forgot to mention that - he's accomplished all of those astounding above feats despite the fact that he won't even be 30 until next year.  Whoops!  But, yeah, the guy's certainly looked old his whole career - we remember being shocked that a 21 year old could have such a strongly receding hairline - but, hey, everyone ages differently.  Just ask Greg Oden*.

That's right: Greg Oden.  We're not afraid to make cross-sport jokes on this here blog.  We're growing into something unstoppable, we keep telling everyone. 

And if all that isn't enough to make your jaw drop, really, isn't that one home run sufficent?  You know, THAT one.  In the NLCS, or something.  2005?  Yeah, that sounds right.  Against...Houston?  We think so.  One of those Texas teams.  Let's check Google...

Oh, baby...don't be so cruel!

Anyway, yeah, there was looking at the best player around.  We hope you take the time to enjoy him properly.