Well we've got 10 (we just realized that we've been counting down til April 5th. Because we're nothing if not attentive.) days left until Opening Day, which means it's season preview time. We'll be running it down team by team, with an added new wrinkle this time around: the beer of choice for fans of the team to enjoy whilst watching their team take the field! Nothing like that to help get you through a baseball season, especially if you're from Pittsburgh. Up next: the Philadelphia Phillies.
Lineup: The Phillies can hit the ball. That's this lineup summed up very briefly. Chase Utley is one of the best players in baseball, Ryan Howard is the premier power bat in the league, and Jayson Werth has been one of the most productive outfielders in the league in the past few years (no word how his new beard will affect his play). Jimmy Rollins used to be in the this discussion before his abysmal 2009 season, but it's not out of the question to think that he will rebound this year. Shane Victorino has made his case to be included in the group of elite hitters from this lineup, and should continue to improve. Beyond that group, Raul Ibanez is a decent enough hitter for left field, and you could do worse than to have Placido Polanco at third. Carlos Ruiz - CHOOCH! - will be the backstop for this squad, and while he's not much with the bat, he's shown quite a bit of flair with the glove. Basically, this team will get their runs - as long as their key contributors stay healthy. Because like the Yankees, there is not a lot of depth to be had here.
Rotation: They did improve by swapping Cliff Lee for Roy Halladay (ignoring all the other parts of the deal), but we're not so sure how good this group is going to be. Halladay and Hamels are a legitimate star-caliber 1/2, but to say that we have doubts about Joe Blanton, J.A. Happ, Kyle Kendrick, and Jamie Moyer is to put it lightly. Blanton showed an uptick in his strikeout rate recently, but we're not really buying it as he benefited from luck last season. Speaking of luck, Happ was extraordinarily lucky in 2009, and will be lucky to post a sub-4.50 FIP this season. Kendrick flat out doesn't have the skills to be in an MLB rotation, and Moyer, while he does have that veteran presence journalists love to write about, is in the same boat.
Bullpen: This is something of a weak spot. Brad Lidge - he of the perfect season in 2008 (saves-wise, which take from that what you will) - was historically awful last season, and has a lot to prove in 2010. Ryan Madson was often Lidge's relief (which never bodes well when you're talking about, y'know, a relief corps), but he's not exactly the kind of pitcher you entrust with significant amounts of high leverage appearances. But then the same could be said about Danys Baez, J.C. Romero, Chad Durbin, Mike Zagurski, David Herndon and Antonio Bastardo. And in case you're wondering, no, that does not bode well for the Phitins.
Overall: The Phils can hit the cover off the ball, and their 1/2 starters are hard to beat. Beyond that, though, you're talking about a very flawed squad. A lot is going to have to go right for them to be the dominant team that we've seen in recent years, but even without that, they should be talented enough to win the division. If, however, either Halladay or Hamels (and we simply cannot wait for the silly double-H merchandise to be printed up) falters or gets injured, then this team could be in some real trouble.
Predicted Record: 91-71, 1st place NL East
Beer: Samuel Smith's Imperial Stout. A potent lineup, the Phillies are equal to the 9% ABV that we see from (Slammin') Sammy Smith's powerful brew. Plus, Smith's is one of, if not the, best Imperial Stout out there - and the same can be said of the Phillies. It's not an inspired choice, to be sure, but hopefully it's heavy enough to keep Philly fans' mouths shut so they can appreciate - instead of complain about - a great team.
Showing posts with label chase utley. Show all posts
Showing posts with label chase utley. Show all posts
11/14/09
The All-Decade Team: Position Players (short version)
This post is the short version of the post we just wrote, so if you don't feel like reading our analysis (shame on you), you can just refer to this.
C Joe Mauer, Jorge Posada, Ivan Rodriguez, Mike Piazza
1B Albert Pujols, Todd Helton, Lance Berkman, Ryan Howard
2B Jeff Kent, Chase Utley, Ray Durham, Jose Vidro
SS Derek Jeter, Miguel Tejada, Michael Young, Jimmy Rollins
3B Alex Rodriguez, Chipper Jones, Scott Rolen, Adrian Beltre
LF Barry Bonds, Manny Ramirez, Gary Sheffield, Luis Gonzalez
CF Jim Edmonds, Carlos Beltran, Mike Cameron, Andruw Jones
RF Ichiro Suzuki, Vladimir Guerrero, Bobby Abreu, Magglio Ordonez
Batting Order
Ichiro Suzuki
Jim Edmonds
Albert Pujols
Barry Bonds
Alex Rodriguez
Joe Mauer
Jeff Kent
Derek Jeter
The All-Decade Team: Position Players
It's that time of...decade! Which is to say, it's the end of a ten-year period, which means it's the perfect time for retrospectives! And one of our personal favorite ways to do so is to create the all-decade team. It's going to be especially fun for us with the '00s since we weren't, you know, really making memories at the beginning of the last decade. But this time we've come prepared! So let's get to our choices for the best players of the decade at each position, which is the end-all be-all of teams and will in no way cause discussion or disagreement.
Some notes: Players considered for spots will be considered only on the body of their work this decade. They need not have played for the entirety of 2000-2009, but obviously, the more years the better. When we say MVP candidate, we mean that they placed in the top 20 of MVP voting. Other candidates are presented in order of finish. Also: due to some confusion, we'd like to point out that all stats that are referenced have been accumulated during the current decade. So e.g. Andruw Jones' 308 HRs are the HRs that he hit from 2000-present.
C: Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins. 2004-09 stats: .327/.408/.483, 136 OPS+, 3 batting titles, winner of '09 slash-stat triple crown.
Mauer played the least among the candidates here - accruing only 3000 PA - but his numbers have been so impressive that he wins anyway. Plus, if you cherry pick each candidate's best 5-year stretch, none of them are as good as Mauer. 2000-04 was the best such stretch for each catcher; Posada went .277/.391/.494, Rodriguez was .319/.366/.539 (132 OPS+), and Piazza tied Mauer's 136 OPS+ with a .292/.376/.539 line, but loses on the tiebreak due to Mauer's superior defensive ability. If you want to choose a candidate that played the full 10 years, that's fine with us, but for our money, Mauer's the best.
Other candidates:
Jorge Posada, New York Yankees. Decade stats: .283/.386/.492, 129 OPS+, 208 HR.
Ivan Rodriguez, Texas Rangers/Florida Marlins/Detroit Tigers/New York Yankees/Houston Astros. Decade stats: .298/.345/.477, 110 OPS+, 161 HR, 65 SB.
Mike Piazza, New York Mets/San Diego Padres (we'd forgotten!)/Oakland Athletics. Decade stats: .285/.360/.512, 127 OPS+, 3 Silver Slugger awards, 3rd-place '00 MVP voting.
1B: Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals. This is the easiest choice on the list. Allow us to remind you of his transcendent greatness: .334/.427/.628 career line. 172 OPS+, which is 6th all-time. Top-10 in MVP voting every year of his career, top-5 in 8 of 9 years, 3-time winner (including this season), and robbed of a 4th. Not counting his rookie year, he's never struck out more than 69 times in a season, and has walked more than he's struck out every season. And ohbytheway, he's done all this with an elbow that has probably needed Tommy John surgery for several years now. The guy's an all-timer.
Other candidates:
Todd Helton, Colorado Rockies. Decade stats: .331/.436/.569, 145 OPS+, 260 HR, 1.36 BB:K.
Lance Berkman, Houston Astros. Decade stats: .300/.413/.559, 148 OPS+, 309 HR, 74 SB, 6-time MVP candidate.
Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies. Decade stats: .279/.376/.586, 142 OPS+, 12.1 AB/HR (3rd all-time; 1st among actives)
And also Miguel Cabrera is really good. Didn't play enough to really qualify among the giants, but...he's really good.
2B: Jeff Kent, San Francisco Giants, Houston Astros, Los Angeles Dodgers. Decade stats: .300/.371/.518, 130 OPS+. MVP award, 4 Silver Sluggers. We're not considering his dubious clubhouse presence or Barry Bonds-alleged racism. We ARE considering, however, one of the best all-time seasons by a second baseman in 2000, and general excellence for the rest of the decade. His worst season was his last; as a 40-year old in 2008, he posted a 96 OPS+. Which, when you consider the fact that other candidates for this list are right around 100 OPS+ for their careers, is very impressive. That's ultimately what gives him the award over Chase Utley, who's been not quite as good with the bat but vastly superior with the glove. So we won't quibble if you choose Chutley.
Other candidates:
Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies. Decade stats: .295/.379/.523, 129 OPS+, 3x Silver Slugger (probably 4 with this year), 5-time MVP candidate, superb defender.
Ray Durham, Chicago White Sox/Oakland Athletics/San Francisco Giants/Milwaukee Brewers. Decade stats: .277/.354/.450, 107 OPS+, 132 HR, 122 SB.
Jose Vidro, Montreal Expos/Washington Nationals/Seattle Mariners. Decade stats: .303/.366/.452, 111 OPS+, '02 MVP candidate, Silver Slugger award, played for the Expos.
Yeah, second base is a weak group.
SS: David Eckstein just kidding
SS: Derek Jeter, New York Yankees. Decade stats: .317/.387/.456, 121 OPS+, 8-time MVP candidate, 3 Silver Sluggers, 219 SB. Yeah, yeah, yeah, intangibles, the Captain, calm eyes, whatever. That counts for nothing. What does count is that the dude can hit and run, and as of this past season, apparently learned how to use his glove. There's not really much more you could ask for from your shortstop.
Other candidates:
Miguel Tejada, Oakland Athletics/Baltimore Orioles/Houston Astros. Decade stats: .297/.347/.481, 116 OPS+, 7-time MVP candidate (1 win), 2x Silver Sluggers.
Michael Young, Texas Rangers. Decade stats: .302/.349/.449, 105 OPS+. 3-time MVP candidate, used to be a great, great fielder. Probably underrated, and yet that's all we can think to say about him.
Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia Phillies. Decade stats: .274/.329/.439, 97 OPS+, 326 SB (83% success), 5-time MVP candidate (1 win), Silver Slugger award. Is almost certainly overrated, but, well, there's little offense to be had at shortstop, and Rollins' speed and somewhat valuable defense pushes him above the pack.
3B: Alex Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners/Texas Rangers/New York Yankees. Decade stats: .304/.401/.587, 154 OPS+, 9-time MVP candidate (3-time winner), 7x Silver Sluggers, 434 HR, 179 SB (83% success). Another all-timer here, even if he did take steroids. In this decade, he's never posted less than a 130 OPS+, has hit 30+ HR each year, and done all of that while switching positions. Had he been a shortstop, he's probably the best shortstop to ever play; as a third basegentleman, he's merely one of the best ever.
Other candidates:
Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves. .311/.415/.545, 148 OPS+, 6-time MVP candidate, 1.12 BB:K, our favorite player. If he stayed healthy, he'd be number one here.
Scott Rolen, Philadelphia Phillies/St. Louis Cardinals/Toronto Blue Jays/Cincinnati Reds. Decade stats: .285/.368/.497, 124 OPS+, averages 15.5 UZR/150, 1-time MVP candidate.
Adrian Beltre, Los Angeles Dodgers/Seattle Mariners. Decade stats: .272/.324/.459, 106 OPS+, great fielder, very durable (valuable considering the rest of the list), 1-time MVP candidate/Silver Slugger winner.
LF: Barry Bonds, San francisco Giants. Decade stats: .322/.517/.724, 221 OPS+. We're going to repeat those, because they are positively cartoonish. .322/.517/.724, 221 OPS+. That 221 OPS+ from 2000-2007 would be the 17th-best single season of all-time. His 2002, 2004, and 2001 seasons are the three-best of all-time, respectively. He set the single season record for home runs, with 73. His walk:strikeout ratio was a ridiculous 2.64. He set single season and career records for walks, both intentional and unintentional. After his 73-homer 2001, in which he struck out 93 times, he never again struck out more than 58 times. Discount it for steroids all you want, and he still dwarfs any challengers. But he did stop stealing bases, so, you know, there's that. The funny thing is, he'd be the starting LF for the 1990's team as well.
Other candidates, inasmuch as there are any:
Manny Ramirez, Boston Red Sox/Los Angeles Dodgers. Decade stats: .317/.419/.599, 160 OPS+, 7-time MVP candidate and Silver Slugger.
Gary Sheffield, Los Angeles Dodgers/Atlanta Braves/New York Yankees/Detroit Tigers/New York Mets. Decade stats: .294/.394/.527, 140 OPS+, 273 HR, 97 SB, 1.16 BB:K, 5-time MVP candidate, 3x Silver Slugger.
Luis Gonzalez, Arizona Diamondbacks/Los Angeles Dodgers/Florida Marlins. Decade stats: .288/.382/.508, 124 OPS+, 2-time MVP candidate, Silver Slugger, 1.1 BB:K.
CF: Jim Edmonds, St. Louis Cardinals/San Diego Padres/Chicago Cubs. Decade stats: .280/.389/.548, 140 OPS+, 5-time MVP candidate, Silver Slugger, 261 HR. Edmonds is a guy who would've had a backup role on the '9os team, but he shines here. He had more power than most players in the game, which is remarkable for a center fielder. He shone defensively, and could work a walk. Like Jeter at short, there's nothing else you could ask for from a center fielder.
Other candidates:
Carlos Beltran, Kansas City Royals/Houston Astros/New York Mets. Decade stats: .282/.363/.502, 121 OPS+, 5-time MVP candidate, 2x Silver Sluggers, excellent fielder.
Mike Cameron, Seattle Mariners/New York Mets/San Diego Padres/Milwaukee Brewers. Decade stats: .253/.342/.457, 111 OPS+, 221 HR, 208 SB (79% success), 2-time MVP candidate.
Andruw Jones, Atlanta Braves/Los Angeles Dodgers/Texas Rangers. Decade stats: .257/.339/.492, 112 OPS+, 5-time MVP candidate (2nd place in '06), Silver Slugger, 308 HR.
I know that leaving out Torii Hunter will be an unpopular choice, but he's just not as good as Cameron or Jones. Hunter doesn't get on base nearly as well as Cameron, doesn't approach Jones in power, has a lower OPS+ than both Cameron and Jones, and has gotten by on a defensive reputation that focuses on his SportsCenter highlights and not his actual negative defensive value since 2002 (-15 UZR).
RF: Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners. Decade stats: .333/.378/434, 118 OPS+, '01 Rookie of the Year/MVP, 7-time MVP candidate, 2x Silver Sluggers, best defensive right fielder in MLB. This was a surprisingly difficult field. In terms of Wins Above Replacement, Ichiro is the clear leader, with 38.8 to Vlad's 32.2, mostly because of Ichiro's vast defensive advantage. It's still hard to give the honor to a guy with a 118 OPS+, But he's stolen 341 bases with an incredible 90% success rate. He's got the single season record for hits, and has led the league in hits 6 times, including 4 straight years. He may yet get 3,000 in America, which is shocking considering that he came here at age 27. His OBP and SLG don't shine, but everything else is as good as it gets - and you get the feeling that if he wanted to draw more walks or hit more dongers, he could.
Other candidates:
Vladimir Guerrero, Montreal Expos/Los Angeles Angels. Decade stats: .323/.392/.569, 147 OPS+, 9-time MVP candidate (1 win), 6x Silver Slugger, 315 HR, 147 SB.
Bobby Abreu, Philadelphia Phillies/New York Yankees/Los Angeles Angels. Decade stats: .297/.402/.497, 132 OPS+, 216 HR, 295 SB, 5-time MVP candidate, 1-time Silver Slugger.
Magglio Ordonez, Chicago White Sox/Detroit Tigers. Decade stats: .316/.379/.523, 132 OPS+, 5-time MVP candidate, 3x Silver Slugger.
9/14/09
Why Your Team Will Blow it in the Playoffs: Philadelphia Phillies
Well, it appears that just about all the playoff spots are decided. Per the excellent coolstandings.com, no team among the Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers, and Rockies have a great shot of making the playoffs - barring a miraculous late season run, or the Rangers gelling together despite injuries and sneaking into the playoffs.
Now, this lack of drama is no fun at all in September, and it's nigh-unacceptable in the playoffs. So rather than just let things play out like they will, which is to say "predictably," we're going to try to throw a wrench into the hopes and dreams of fans of each of the aforementioned playoff probables. Because none of them are the Braves. AND SO: onward with the hating. Up next: the WFC.
Biggest Strength: the middle of the order. Chase Utley deserves to be at least mentioned in the MVP talk this year, even though Albert Pujols is the runaway winner. He's played an excellent second base while mashing to the tune of a .296/.414/.542 line that's good for a .420 wOBA and making him already worth eight wins. Jayson Werth has had a breakout year, slugging .519 and parking 33 HR - 2nd best on the team. The leader in dongers, of course, is Ryan Howard, with 38. His power production is actually down a little bit, but he's become a more balanced hitter, hitting .272/.350/.556 as compared to last year's .251/.339/.543. Raul Ibanez, as everyone probably knows, hit something like 54 homers in the first half of the season and has come down a bit since, but he's still been good for a .382 wOBA, one point behind Howard. And Shane Victorino, the Flyin' Hawaiian, has added a potent bat (.300/.367/.460) to complement his excellent speed. Those five have powered the Phillies to where they are right now.
But Wait A Minute!
Didn't we forget someone, you might ask? Well, no, we would tell you, because we're never wrong. We would assume you're referring to former MVP Jimmy Rollins, and, well, he just hasn't been right all year. He's going steal 30 bases, but he's actually cost the Phillies a run this year with his poor hitting, proving that while speed may never slump, it may suck. Or something.
Rollins' tough year isn't the only thing that's going to submarine the Phils, though. Far from it! For one thing, they don't have the lineup depth that, say, the Yankees do - after Utley, Werth, Howard, Ibanez, and Victorino, there aren't what you would call a lot of "quality" hitters on the roster. Ben Francisco and Carlos Ruiz have hovered around an .800 OPS, but Francisco's only been around for 61 PAs, and Ruiz's contribution really only looks good because it comes from a thorougly mediocre group of guys - to wit, Eric Bruntlett, Matt Stairs, Chris Coste, John Mayberry, Greg Dobbs, and Paul Bako all have at least 85 PA.
So if the Phils can't reliably outhit their opponent - admittedly a large logical leap considering the skill of their their five-man gauntlet - they're going to have to step it up in run prevention. But can they? Cliff Lee's a stud, and a recent rough patch (9+ ERA in his last couple starts, excluding last night) doesn't mean that he's in trouble, just that he had to regress from his utterly dominant first few starts as a Phillie. So they've got themselves an ace. After that, there's some quality to be had, but nothing overpowering. Pedro Martinez has looked good since he joined the club* (5.67 K:BB, 3.65 FIP), but a high strand rate (86%) and a high age (38) hint at some regression. Cole Hamels was great in last year's playoffs, but he's coming off of a career high in innnings (227), and has gone through some rough patches this year that have some wondering whether he's been focused enough on the season at hand. Of course, that's the worst criticism we can find for the guy, since he's actually having essentially the same season as last year. This surprised us, but it's true; check out the table.
| Year | Age | Tm | ERA | GS | CG | SHO | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA+ | WHIP | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 | SO/BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 24 | PHI | 3.09 | 33 | 2 | 2 | 227.1 | 193 | 89 | 78 | 28 | 53 | 196 | 142 | 1.082 | 7.6 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 7.8 | 3.70 |
| 2009 | 25 | PHI | 4.21 | 28 | 2 | 2 | 169.0 | 181 | 81 | 79 | 22 | 37 | 147 | 102 | 1.290 | 9.6 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 7.8 | 3.97 |
His hit rate has gone up significantly, but that's partly due to a .343 BABIP. That accounts for the increase in WHIP despite improved control, and his FIP of 3.77 is only five points higher than last year's. So in reality, he's not as bad as he seems superficially, and he's not as good as he was in the playoffs. Good enough guy to have as a number two starter, we suppose. And the last spot will go to Joe Blanton, who's basically a league-average kind of guy. He's learned how to strike guys out this year, posting a career high 7.38 K/9 that easily bests his career total of 5.57. The increase in strikeouts has come along with a large increase in the homers he gives up, though; his HR/9 of 1.51 is a tidy .5 greater than last year. We'd say more, but, well, the talk of pitchers who give up lots of home runs reminds us of another Phillie that we're just chomping at the bit to write about.
*Did you know that in 1999, Pedro Martinez's banner year and arguably the greatest pitching season of all time, he had a .343 BABIP? Jesus. Let's revisit his line from that year.
| Year | W | L | W-L% | ERA | GS | CG | SHO | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA+ | WHIP | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | SO/9 | SO/BB | Awards |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 23 | 4 | .852 | 2.07 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 213.1 | 160 | 56 | 49 | 9 | 37 | 313 | 243 | 0.923 | 6.8 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 13.2 | 8.46 | AS,CYA-1,MVP-2 |
And he did that with batters getting absurdly LUCKY. That sort of boggles the mind, no?
We hope you guessed that we're talking about the one, the only, Brad Lidge. Which gives us a great excuse to use this picture again!
Teeeheeheeheeehee. Sorry. In any event, after Lidge blew his like 38th save this year, Charlie Manuel finally stopped running him out there and depriving us of much glorious schadenfreude. Seriously, the guy's been historically awful; his -2.5 WXRL is the lowest of any pitcher EVER who got as many save opportunities as Lidge has this year. Which is absurd considering that he's pitching for a division champion. Fortunately for the Phils, Ryan Madson is there to...well, blow more saves. Yay! When you consider that Chan Ho Park leads this unit in WXRL at 1.996, you have to figure there's some reason for concern here. If the pen keeps handing back leads, the offense and starters are going to have to compensate, and they're going to have little room for error. When one or two of the big bats goes cold, when Joe Blanton starts serving up gopher balls and Pedro Martinez reverts to Mets form, when Eric Bruntlett fails to convert an unassisted triple play...the Phillies will blow it.
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