Team Preview: Los Angeles Dodgers

Another West Coast team!  Boy, if we'd waited until people actually, you know, read this blog before we started doing these silly previews, we'd be losing a lot of audience.  But fortunately for us, that's just not a real problem.  Anyway, the Dodgers!  The Chavez Ravine crew made an impressive run last year after adding one of our favorite sluggers, Manny Ramirez, at the deadline.  In the playoffs, they vaulted past the Cubs into the waiting jaws of the World Champion Philadelphia Phillies, so we guess in retrospect that might have hurt a little bit.  But they're back and ready to go at it again!

On offense, this was a morose bunch after it lost its sparkplug Rafael Furcal and before it added its best piece in Manny.  But when they're both in the lineup, this is as good a bunch as you'll find anywhere.  They lost former star - and, more recently, former good baseball player - Nomar Garciaparra, as well as second baseman Jeff Kent.  Also, they non-tendered Angel Berroa, which could really come back to hurt them.  We suspect that sentence is a perfect representation of internet sarcasm.  But a full 162 (ok, more like 120) games of Manny and Furcal will be good enough, especially when combined with the oodles of young talent (we're not looking at you, Casey Blake).  

On the mound, Dodgers hurlers fared fairly well.  Youngsters Chad Billingsley and Clayton Kershaw form a great 1-2 for the years to come; the departure of Derek Lowe hurts, but if Hiroki Kuroda stays healthy, the first 3 spots will be set.  It's the rest of the rotation that lacks much in the way of readily available talent; Randy Wolf, Jason Schmidt, and Brad Penny are all getting along in years and have lengthy injury histories, but if two of them can stay healty for any significant length of time, this could be a very potent rotation.

Around the Horn

C Russell Martin: .290/.380/.440, 15 HR, 15 SB.  Martin's an incredible athlete who has 39 combined steals in the last two years while also posting 1270 ABs.  When not catching, he can be seen stealing time at the hot corner; although he is 26, a power slippage last year should have manager Joe Torre cutting back on the youngster's playing time to keep him fresh.

1B James Loney: .310/.360/.490, 15 HR.  Loney has a solid bat that is just short of excellent at the position that demands the most offense.  If he steps up his D, though, he'll immediately be one of the better all-around players at the position.

2B Orlando Hudson: .290/.360/.390, 9 HR, 10 SB.  The gloveman from Arizona finally landed a team very late in the offseason, pushing Blake DeWitt to a utility role - so, basically, it was a great deal for the Dodgers.  

3B Casey Blake: .260/.320/.420, 15 HR.  We don't really care for Casey.  And we don't really understand why Ned Colletti traded for him.  Or extended him.  Besides the fact that he's an excellent general manager who's also responsible for the mess of injured pitchers collecting hefty paychecks.  And Juan Pierre.  

SS Rafael Furcal: .300/.360/.410, 7 HR, 20 SB.  We think that Furcal's going to get some of his speed back, but it's admittedly a bet with high odds against.  You hate to see core and leg injuries to speed guys, and at, 31, he's really got nowhere to go but down.  Actually, is it too late to go up and change that SB number? 

LF Manny Ramirez: .310/.420/.540, 35 HR.  We've always loved Manny, and even though it didn't happen until he turned 37, we can't wait to see him have a full season bashing NL pitching.

CF Matt Kemp: .310/.370/.510, 25 HR, 25 SB.  We have similar feelings toward the ridiculously-talented Kemp, who we hope (and, albeit with our rose colored glasses firmly on, think) will be a perennial 30-30 guy for as long as those kind of athletes can hold on to their skills.

RF Andre Ethier: .300/.380/.500, 20 HR.  What an outfield.  Just look at those numbers again.  Ethier could significantly outplay our projection; we wouldn't be surprised.  Granted, that has more to do with the fact that we're guessing than the fact that he's really good, but still.

From the Bump: Starters

RHP Chad Billingsley: 200 IP, 3.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 190 K, 80 BB.  Billingsley lost time last year to a freak leg injury, and we've heard that he's a bit chubbier than expected this spring, but we think he'll be better than fine.  As you can clearly see from our numbers.  We like redundancy.  And rambling.

RHP Hiroki Kuroda: 170 IP, 4.00 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 110 K, 35 BB.  The Japanese import exceeded expectations last year, and if his elbow problems don't crop up again this year, he shoud post solid numbers again.

LHP Clayton Kershaw: 160 IP, 3.80 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 150 K, 75 BB.  He's 21.  Last year, then, he was 20.  We're 20.  Vin Scully called his curveball "Public Enemy #1."  We're sad.  Love the kid, though.

LHP Randy Wolf: 140 IP, 4.20 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 115 K, 55 BB.  Wolf, at 32, has certainly lost a step, but he's still got talent.  He just needs to stay healthy enough to use it.  We'd use the old "copy and paste a preview for similar players trick" for the next guy, but it's overdone. 

RHP Jason Schmidt: 100 IP, 5.50 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 45 BB.  Schmidt had a couple of surprising ace-caliber years in San Francisco, but the last time he was an effective pitcher was 2006.  And he's had more shoulder twinges already this season.  F his life.

Team Preview: Oakland Athletics

Our little West Coast swing continues as we hit Oakland now.  We think we like so many West Coast teams because we never get to see them; we're just sort of sick of the Eastern teams that the media...ESPN...force feeds to us.  Anyway, the A's.  They weren't very good or exciting last year, going 75-86 in a weak AL West.  They scored a meager 4.01 runs per game (27th) but allowed just 4.29 per game, 8th best in MLB.  They took steps to address their mediocre offense, trading for LF Matt Holliday and signing SS Orlando Cabrera, former SS Nomar Garciaparra, and former A Jason Giambi.   Plus, the remains of 3B Eric Chavez are "healthy", and 2B Mark Ellis is ready to man the keystone again, so that should provide a boost.  Assuming either one can even hold a bat or glove without his arms falling off, that is.

Offensively, the upgrades should help a lot - plus backup C Rob Bowen was one of the instructors at a baseball camp we attended, so that's a plus.  They could host the division's second best squad in that regard.  If the pitching stays true to form - hardly a lock, given that their ace, Justin Duchscherer, is struggling with health issues (again), and the rest of the guys that performed for them last year are gone and/or overachievers.  This year, there doesn't appear to be a lot of promise from top to bottom, unless they can capture the same magic they had last year.  However, they do boast a very solid bullpen.

2009 Forecast

PECOTA projected record: 84-78, 2nd in AL West

KCSD projected record: 82-80, 2nd in AL West

We're less confident than PECOTA because we think the pitching is going to be too much of an issue for the retooled offense to fully overcome.  Still a nice improvement overall, though.

Around the Horn

C Kurt Suzuki: .275/.340/.400, 10 HR.  The Asian Sensation is not really sensational, but he's also not actually nicknamed that, so it's ok.  Anyway, he's a solid, young backstop with potential for growth.  Nothin wrong with that.

1B Daric Barton: .265/.360/.430, 20 HR.  Barton was a huge disappointment last year, but he's still just 23.  And we tend to think that highly regarded A's prospects are highly regarded for a reason.

2B Mark Ellis: .275/.330/.430, 15 HR, 10 SB.  Last year was basically a lost season for Ellis due to injuries; if he can show that he's fully overcome them, he should be able to rebound.

3B Eric Chavez: .240/.345/.410, 15 HR.  Chavez has had serious, serious injury issues the last few seasons, basically destroying what was a high-potential career.  But his bat isn't useless yet, and if he can stay healthy, something resembling a return to form could be in the offing.

SS Orlando Cabrera: .275/.330/.380, 5 HR, 15 SB.  Cabrera is mostly known for his defense and being a tremendous teammate, by which we mean people in the clubhouse hate him.  He's got a solid contact bat for a shortstop, but no patience or power means a 1-year deal was a good decision.

LF Matt Holliday: .290/.380/.500, 25 HR, 20 SB.  Moving from the homer haven of Coors Field to the homer-depressing McAfee Coliseum can't mean good things for the bald basher.  He should still have a good year, but don't be surprised to see less power.

CF Ryan Sweeney: .280/.340/.400, 10 HR.  Sweeney developed this annoying habit of posting great minor league numbers and then getting called up only to fall flat on his face.  Well, last year, he broke that habit.  Turning 25, don't be surprised to see him improve on last year's solid .286/.350/.383 showing.

RF Travis Buck: .260/.340/.400, 10 HR.  Buck, too, showed promise in the minors, but had trouble adapting to the majors.  Hopefully, turning 26, he can prove that his strong showing in the past wasn't a fluke.

DH Jack Cust: .250/.400/.500, 30 HR.  A classic three true outcome slugger (everything's a walk, strikeout, or bomb), Cust finally got his chance in Oakland a couple years ago after bopping in the minors for several years.  Their patience has paid off, and his bat should only get better as a full-time DH.

From the Bump: Starters

RHP Justin Duchscherer: 140 IP, 4.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 100 K, 40 BB.  Duchscherer was a surprise showing on the ERA leaderboards all season, but that was due in large part to a ridiculously low .238 BABIP.  Expect some regression, and more missed starts from the fragile Duchscherer.

LHP Dana Eveland: 180 IP, 4.50 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 130 K, 75 BB. Eveland was solid last year, and there's nothing wrong with a lefty who can put up these numbers. You'd just rather they came from a lower slot in the rotation.

RHP Sean Gallagher: 160 IP, 4.80 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 120 K, 70 BB.  Gallagher was less-than-solid last year, but if he can improve, there's nothing wrong with a guy who can put up these numbers. You'd just rather they came from a lower slot in the rotation.

LHP Josh Outman: 150 IP, 4.75 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 100 K, 70 BB.  Gonzalez was less-than-solid last year, but if he can improve, there's nothing wrong with a lefty who can put up these numbers. You'd just rather they came from a lower slot in the rotation.

Sensing a trend here?

LHP Gio Gonzalez: 150 IP, 5.20 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 100 K, 75 BB.  Gonzalez was less-than-solid last year, but if he can improve, there's nothing wrong with a lefty who can put up these numbers. You'd just rather they came from a lower slot in the rotation.

Our goodness, this is a vanilla group.  At least Outman has a good name for a pitcher, even if it is something of a misnomer.

From the Bump: Relievers

Closer RHP Joey Devine: 60 IP, 2.20 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 70 K, 25 BB, 15 SV.  Devine has nasty stuff, and the Braves, quite simply, gave up on him too fast.  Only 25, Devine should be an excellent closer for years to come.

Setup man RHP Brad Ziegler: 60 IP, 3.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 35 K, 20 BB, 10 SV.  Ziegler set a record in his rookie year for the most consecutive innings pitched without allowing an earned run (one of the less catchy records), but he did it on the strength of a low BABIP, so you can expect some regresssion here, too.  But he should still be a solid arm, and can get some saves since he figures to open the season in the closer role.

Team Preview: San Francisco Giants

The Giants are near and dear to our hearts because a player who went to our high school toiled in their minor league system for a few years, we still support Barry Bonds, and think that they are a eye-cathing team - especially with the high black socks.  Good look.  ANYWAY the Giants were offensive dwarves last year, scoring 3.95 runs per game (29th), and allowing a below-average 4.69 runs per game (17th).  This is a team that really could've used Manny Ramirez's bat, not only to bolster an offense that badly needs any help it can get, but also to help their pitchers, who will now have to face Manny 19 times a year.  Alas, GM Brian Sabean has never been one for smart free agent signings (Barry Zito, recently released Dave Roberts, Edgar Renteria, Aaron Rowand, Edgardo Alfonzo, Armando Benitez, Moises Alou, Matt Morris, Reggie Sanders, Omar Vizquel...we'll stop piling on).  

So without the Manny boost, what are we looking at for the offensive side of affairs?  A year of development from Pablo Sanchez will help him take a step forward, Edgar Renteria will be an offensive upgrade over Omar Vizquel (though it's possible that we would be, too), Fred Lewis could break out, and Eugenio Velez's legs will be a nice boost.  Unfortunately, there is little-to-no pop in the lineup; Bengie Molina (!) led the team with 16 (!) home runs.  Velez, Lewis, and Randy Winn each stole 20+ bases, however, and Emmanuel Burriss is certainly capable of posting that many as well.  Maybe with their speed they could get something accomplished; they don't stand much of a chance of being anything resembling an average offensive team otherwise.

As for the pitching, it's something that could be a strength.  Tiny Tim Lincecum (probably our favorite pitcher) headlines the group, but RHP Matt Cain and LHPs Randy Johnson and Jonathan Sanchez are no slouches themselves (but Barry Zito is).  LHP Noah Lowry provides some insurance as a long man who can take the occasional start, which he'll probably have to do with the injury prone Sanchez and Johnson in the rotation.  The bullpen has some fairly capable arms as well, though none that will do great things.  Closer Brian Wilson was solid last year, and the additions of RHP Bob Howry and LHP Jeremy Affeldt should help bolster the back end as well, particularly if Howry proves that his terrible '08 was a fluke.

2009 Forecast

PECOTA projected record: 75-87, 4th in NL West.

KCSD projected record: 77-85, 3rd in NL West.

If their offense can manage to be even marginal, and the pitching staff performs up to expectations, they should at least be better than the Rockies and Padres.

Around the Horn

C Bengie Molina: .280/.310/.425, 15 HR.  One of the famous Molina troika, Bengie carries a fairly potent stick for a catcher.  He has zero patience, but his well above-average defense (which the whole family is famous for) makes up for any offensive shortcomings.  For the record, we rank our Molinas thusly: Bengie, Yadier, Jose.

1B Travis Ishikawa: .265/.330/.430, 13 HR.  This is just not a powerful enough bat for first base.  Ishikawa plays good defense, but he's going to have to take some steps forward with the bat - a leap he is capable of, as he's flashed power in the minors, and has a large (6'3'') frame to grow into.  

2B Kevin Frandsen: .275/.340/.390, 5 HR.  Frandsen is a decent enough player, but at 27, he doesn't have much growing left to do, so this is probably about as good as you can hope for.  His defense isn't great, but if you have to punt a position, you could do worse than second base.  Also, Eugenio Velez will be logging some time here, so it's worth mentioning that while Velez also possesses a below average bat, his legs are very good.

3B Pablo Sandoval: .290/.330/.450, 15 HR.  Sandoval was very good last year in his rookie campaign, though he demonstrated very little in the way of patience.  He has a bad body which could hurt him as the season wears on, but in terms of pure talent, the 22-year old has some to spare.

SS Edgar Renteria: .285/.340/.415, 10 HR.  Renteria was great for the Braves after coming from the Red Sox; the general consensus seems to be that if he can catch the cross-league magic again, he could do good things.  However, his defense is atrocious, so he'd better pick it up with the stick to justify his contract.

LF Fred Lewis: .280/.360/.440, 10 HR, 20 SB.  Lewis has a nice combination of batting ability and speed, making him a pretty useful player.  You'd like to perhaps have better out of your left fielder, but such is life with the post-Bonds Giants.

CF Aaron Rowand: .270/.330/.415, 12 HR.  Excellent signing! We don't understand why GMs continue to fall for the career year phenomenon. 

RF Randy Winn: .295/.355/.420, 9 HR, 15 SB.  Winn was their top offensive producer last year in terms of VORP, and he's been surprisingly productive during his time in a Giants uniform.  However, he's had problems staying healthy which are only likely to exacerbate themselves in his age-35 season. 

From the Bump: Starters

RHP Tim Lincecum: 230 IP, 3.10 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 275 K, 80 BB.  Lincecum is a beast.  He could strike out 300 and we wouldn't be surprised.  If we had access to Giants games somehow, we'd absolutely watch him every fifth day.

RHP Matt Cain: 210 IP, 3.60 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 200 K, 90 BB.  Cain is Lincecum-light.  Hopefully his large workload by the tender age of 24 doesn't come back to bite him.

LHP Randy Johnson: 160 IP, 4.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 140 K, 40 BB.  Johnson could probably pitch until he's 50 and still be effective.  As with any pitcher his age...actually, never mind.  Pitchers don't reach 45 often enough for us to make statements like that.  Yeah, his body could betray him, but we wouldn't be surprised to see him make 30 starts, either.

LHP Jonathan Sanchez: 170 IP, 4.45 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 175 K, 80 BB.  Sanchez is an overpowering lefty who we think will strike out a batter an inning.  He just has to get his control under...control, and stop getting unlucky with a high BABIP.

LHP Barry Zito: 185 IP, 5.35 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 110 K, 100 BB. Excellent signing! And he wasn't even coming off of a particularly great season!

From the Bump: Relievers

Closer Brian Wilson: 60 IP, 3.75 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 65 K, 22 BB, 29 SV.  Wilson has a strikeout arm that doesn't always know how to find the strike zone.  If he's going to be a great closer, he'll need to address that issue - and at 27, we think this might be the year for him to do just that.

Setup man Jeremy Affeldt: 60 IP, 3.25 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 70 K, 19 BB.  We think Affeldt is very underrated.  He may well be the best reliever on this staff.

Team Preview: Cincinnati Reds

So in the spirit of Spring Training, it's time to start up with team previews. Teams will be previewed in approximately the same order as we like them. We try not to accord too much favor or bias around here, but...we like some teams more than others. This will only be reflected in the order of the previews. We promise. Sort of. Anyway, the general idea is that we'll talk a bit about the team to preface it all, mention how they did last year and what they've done to address the situation this year. We'll guess at what they will look like on the diamond, and who will log significant innings and/or saves in Around the Horn and From the Bump, respectively. Furthermore, we'll use PECOTA to help us predict what they'll each do this year. Should be great fun. Let's get going.

Time for the original baseballers, the Cincinnati Reds.  The Dusty Baker-managed crew scored 4.35 runs per game, (23rd) and allowed a similarly poor 4.95 runs per game (23rd).  That's consistent sub-mediocrity right there, folks.  The Reds have a few exciting young stars to build around...and not much else.  1B Joey Votto, RF Jay Bruce, 2B Brandon Phillips, and, if we're being generous, 3B Edwin Encarnacion make for a solid lineup core, and RHPs Edinson Volquez, Aaron Harang, and Johnny Cueto are an excellent top three pitchers.  After that, it's a big gap down to the next best producers.  At least RHP Micah Owings (Green Wave!) is interesting for his bat, and CF Willy Taveras is a great one-tool guy to replace departed no-tool OF Corey Patterson (notable for being the single worst player in baseball last year...except for Coco Crisp who always holds that honor). 

Departed slugger Adam Dunn leaves a big hole in the lineup, and a somewhat smaller hole in left field; prospect Chris Dickerson, who OPS'd over 1.000 in his 122-AB showing last season is the favorite to get most of the time there.  He will probably some ABs against lefties to former Ray slugger Jonny Gomes, who likes to celebrate winning the division by drinking Bud Light out of Dioner Navarro's cup.  And who doesn't?  Willy Taveras came over from Colorado, where his skill (speed) served him well; the spacious outfield of Mile High demands a good deal of speed from the outfielders.  The bandbox that is Great American Ballpark (beautiful stadium), however, isn't quite so challenging.  Sure, Taveras can still use that speed to steal bases (68 last year), only he's never on base (OBP dropped from a very encouraging .367 in 2007 to .309 last year, more in line with his career .331 mark).  If he can correct that, and Great American gives his power a helping hand, he could be a useful player. C Ramon Hernandez, acquired in a trade for utility guy Ryan Freel and his partner in crime, Farney, will handle the backstop duties for a year or two while the team searches for a more permanent solution. And on the exciting young prospect front, OF Drew Stubbs and 1B Yonder Alonso are both nearly ready; the challenge will be to find spots for them both.  If Stubbs can handle center, he could bump Taveras to the bench, but otherwise left field is going to get very crowded.  Stubbs, Chris Dickerson, and either Joey Votto or Yonder Alonso would be in a competition for ABs there.  We smell trade bait (and it smells delicious)!

As for the pitching, Volquez, Harang, and Cueto will be expected to anchor the rotation, and Francisco Cordero is on hand (at the low cost of 4 years and $48 million!) to close out games.  Cordero's presence on this team kinda confuses us; why spend lots on a closer when you're not a great team?  Anyway, RHP Bronson Arroyo will bring his brand of mediocrity to the four spot, and Micah Owings (Green Wave!) and former prospect Homer Bailey will try to piece together 200 innings in the fifth spot.  The bullpen has some solid arms, too, so the pitching should be better than last year's subpar showing.

2009 Forecast

PECOTA projected record: 77-85, 4th in NL Central

KCSD projected record: 81-81, 3rd in NL Central

We think the Reds can be a good sleeper team this year, and we think that PECOTA overvalues the Cardinals.  This team, with a couple of breaks, could easily find itself in contention for the division title.  Of course, it seems like people are always saying that about the Reds, so take that with a grain of salt, we suppose.

Around the Horn

C Ramon Hernandez: .264/.331/.426, 19 HR.  Moving to Great American should help Hernandez's power return to where it was a couple of years ago, and he looks to have the bat to be useful for another season or two.  Catchers don't age well, of course, so we may be seeing the beginning of the end of his career.

1B Joey Votto: .295/.376/.528, 27 HR, 11 SB.  The Canadian slugger is an exciting young bat who's looking to build on a ROY-worthy campaign.  It looks like he's starting to grow into his power potential, so if he can keep up the excellent contact rates he displayed in the minors, we could have a premiere slugger on our hands.

2B Brandon Phillips: .282/.334/.489, 20 HR, 20 SB.  Phillips has finally arrived as a consistent regular.  He isn't living up to all the hype heaped upon him as a prospect, but 20-20 from a second baseman is more than enough for us.  Food for thought: He, along with Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore, was traded from the Expos to the Indians for Bartolo Colon.  An underrated candidate in the pantheon of terrible trades, if you ask us.

3B Edwin Encarnacion: .283/.365/.493, 23 HR.  Encarnacion could be on the verge of a major breakout in his age-26 season.  With any luck, he just might become the best Encarnacion to ever play in the majors! (Sorry, Juan).

SS Jeff Keppinger: .296/.353/.372, 4 HR.  This spot might well go to Alex Gonzalez, but we don't like him very much, and think Keppinger is the better player.  Hopefully shortstop isn't the cursed place it was last year for the Reds; both Keppinger and Gonzalez suffered knee injuries.  Gonzalez is the better defender, Keppinger the better hitter; WHO KNOWS WHAT WILL HAPPEN?!

LF Chris Dickerson/Jonny Gomes: .265/.355/.500, 31 HR, 25 SB.  Some great counting stats from these two gentlemen.  If Dickerson and Gomes are used exclusively according to their strengths, this could be an excellent left field.

CF Willy Taveras: .265/.320/.325, 1 HR, 59 SB.  Players like Taveras used to be loved in baseball. We bet they look at old sepia toned photos of similar speedy slap hitters and cry.

RF Jay Bruce: .280/.350/.510, 25 HR, 12 SB.  Bruce capped off a meteoric rise through the Reds' system with a fantastic opening week...and then regressed to rookiedom.  His ending line (.254/.314/.453) was nothing to be ashamed of, especially for a 21-year old, but he has lots of room for improvement.  Expect him to start showing it.

From the Bump: Starters

RHP Aaron Harang: 210 IP, 3.90 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 200 K, 45 BB.  Harang was the most underrated ace in all of MLB for several years, but he struggled with forearm problems last season and his performance suffered.  We hope he gets back to his old levels of dominance - at 31, there's hope for a rebound - because he's too ugly to get girls if he's not very good.  Chicks dig the long ball - pitchers gotta be real good to impress.

RHP Edinson Volquez: 160 IP, 4.20 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 155 K, 80 BB.  Volquez was a revelation last year, but we're expecting some regression this year.  Plus, the jump in innings pitched (up to 196 last year from an aggregate total of about 160 worries us some, coming from such a young arm.  We expect some injury trouble.

RHP Bronson Arroyo: 200 IP, 4.50 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 155 K, 70 BB.  Arroyo has been unexpectedly soild during his Cincinnati tenure; in fact, he was downright dominant in '06.  The last two years have been a bit of a regression; they looked a lot like what we're projecting him for this year.

RHP Johnny Cueto: 190 IP, 4.30 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 170 K, 70 BB.  Like Bruce, Cueto was excellent early in the year, though he did last a couple months before slowing down.  The young, undersized Cueto may have worn down a bit; it'll be interesting to see how Dusty Baker runs him and Volquez.

RHP Homer Bailey: 100 IP, 5.50 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 75 K, 50 BB.  Bailey was rushed to the majors in '07, and struggled mightily.  Last year was terrible as well; even in the minors, Bailey did little to reassure his believers.  But we still count ourselves in that group; he still has the great stuff that caught peoples' attention, and he's still just 23.  We're not being very optimistic in our projection, but we're hoping for better things.

From the Bump: Relievers

Closer RHP Francisco Cordero: 60 IP, 3.29 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 67 K, 27 BB, 35 SV.  Cordero still has an electric arm at 34, and we expect him to use it to great effect.  Hopefully for the Reds, he'll be around to use it when the Reds are really good.

Setup man RHP Mike Lincoln: 60 IP, 4.25 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 45 K, 25 BB.  We're giving Lincoln the nod as the primary setup man since he just signed a new 2 year contract, but as you can see, he's not a dominant force...though neither is anyone else besides Cordero.  The hope for the Reds is that the bullpen can just be competent enough to not blow too many potential wins.

Team Preview: Texas Rangers

So in the spirit of Spring Training, it's time to start up with team previews. Teams will be previewed in approximately the same order as we like them. We try not to accord too much favor or bias around here, but...we like some teams more than others. This will only be reflected in the order of the previews. We promise. Sort of. Anyway, the general idea is that we'll talk a bit about the team to preface it all, mention how they did last year and what they've done to address the situation this year. We'll guess at what they will look like on the diamond, and who will log significant innings and/or saves in Around the Horn and From the Bump, respectively. Furthermore, we'll use PECOTA to help us predict what they'll each do this year. Should be great fun. Let's get going.

The Rangers clocked in at 79-83 last season, which was somehow enough for second place in the weakest division in baseball, the AL West.  The Rangers are a fun team if you love offense (we do) and hate pitching (we don't, but we can still enjoy watching the Rangers).  They had the most prolific offense in the bigs last year, posting 5.57 runs per game, and the worst pitching staff, sporting a 5.97 runs allowed average.  That's quite a trick if you can manage it, and the Rangers pulled it off in spades.  They only had three pitchers make more than 20 starts; of those, only Vicente Padilla managed a sub-5.00 ERA (4.74).  Their most valuable pitcher in terms of VORP, reliever Frank Francisco, is better known as the guy who threw a bullpen chair at fans a couple years ago, and his 16.7 VORP is pretty bad in itself.  And their pitchers, all 30 (!) of them who logged innings in a Rangers jersey, combined to average a negative VORP.  Their entire staff was less valuable than replacement level players.

Fortunately, they scored enough runs to help compensate for this problem last year; OFs Josh Hamilton and Milton Bradley, combined with 2B Ian Kinsler and (former) SS Michael Young were a great nucleus to build around.  Surrounded by up-and-comers like 1B Chris "Crash" Davis, OF Nelson Cruz, C's Taylor Teagarden, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Max Ramirez, and SS Elvis Andrus (the last three are former Braves!), this could be a fun lineup for years to come.  Unfortunately, Milton Bradley has departed for the ivy-covered pastures of Wrigley Field, robbing them of arguably the best hitter on the team.  The Rangers hope that Cruz and Marlon Byrd can help fill Bradley's gap in the outfield, though they also signed (former Brave!) OF Andruw Jones as insurance.  Jones, of course, was absolutely horrendous last year, and slightly less horrendous the year before, so we're pretty sure he's done.  But if he can wrangle some ABs and show some of his previous prodiguous power, so much the better for him.

The Rangers also didn't make any moves to address their pitching, though Nolan Ryan's arrival in the front office last year should start to make a difference in this year or the next.  He has changed the organizational philosophy on pitching, hoping to extend their pitchers a little more with improved conditioning programs and an expectation of more innings pitched.  We personally support this movement wholeheartedly; we admit to missing the days when pitchers would routinely go 9.  Anyway, there's a whole lot of problems facing the Texas pitchers beyond not throwing enough innings; with their talent level, they might be better served throwing as little as possible.  There are some promising arms in the system like RHPs Neftali Feliz and Derek Holland, and LHP Matt Harrison (former Braves!), but any free agent help is going to need to be complemented by a lot more development of the young hurlers.  Also they have had some significant defensive issues in the last few years; moving Michael Young to third base for the defensively gifted Elvis Andrus (who will platoon with similarly skilled - and much older! - Adam Everett) will help, but it also significantly weakens their hitting at short, third, and DH, where Hank Blalock's washed-up bat will have to play.

2009 Forecast

PECOTA Projected Record: 73-89, 3rd in AL West.

KCSD Projected Record: 69-93, 4th in AL West.

The offense will be weaker thanks to lesser contributions from short, third, and DH, plus losing Milton Bradley will take a big toll.  We think Crash Davis and Nelson Cruz will be good, but their contributions won't be enough to offset this terrible, terrible pitching staff.  It's a lot like the Orioles' situation.

Around the Horn

C Jarrod Saltalamacchia: .264/.351/.473, 15 HR.  The talented young Salty has long been considered a top prospect, and now is getting a chance to put in a full season of ABs...if he can hold off other top prospect Taylor Teagarden.  And Max Ramirez looms behind them.  The Rangers have really got to trade one of these guys.

1B Chris Davis: .277/.344/.535, 32 HR.  Crash has legit power, and he flashed some good contact skills last season in his 300-AB audition.  If he can build on that in his age-23 season, he could really be something special going forward.

2B Ian Kinsler: .286/.356/.478, 20 HR, 22 SB.  A classic 20-20 man, Kinsler flashed some real power last year while posting near-MVP caliber numbers.  Unfortunately, Kinsler has had trouble staying healthy in the past, which cost him recognition last season.  If he can stay healthy as a 27-year old, and put up power numbers like last season, he can be the anchor of the lineup.

3B Michael Young: .279/.334/.396, 9 HR, 10 SB.  This...is not a useful bat at the hot corner.  Young's steady decline in power the last few seasons were acceptable when he was playing shortstop - albeit poorly - but at third base, you've just got to have someone with more pop in the bat.  Also we'd like to point out that Young's contract extension was just silly when it was signed and will only look worse in years to come.  Until is expires, anyway.

SS Elvis Andrus:  .247/.299/.331, 1 HR, 20 SB.  Bold move installing a 20-year old as a starting big league shortstop.  Kid's good with the glove, but has very little power, and hopefully his bat starts to play a little more as he develops.  

LF David Murphy: .260/.360/.421, 13 HR, 9 SB.  Murphy has a good eye at the plate, and power will come as he develops.  His bat should play now, but he's more of a future investment.

CF Josh Hamilton: .310/.390/.550, 34 HR, 10 SB.  Hamilton faces a challenge, especially from a health standpoint, in moving to center full-time, but we're not about to bet against him.  He's got so much natural baseball talent that we wouldn't doubt anything he chose to do.  And, hey, he's gotta be better than at least a few of their pitchers.  Why not give him some innings??

RF Nelson Cruz: .270/.339/.489, 27 HR.  We just watched Cruz play in the WBC today.  That's not really relevant, but we just like the WBC.  Probably more than most.  Anyway Cruz is a talented kid who's got a very good bat.  Should be an above-average right fielder.

DH Hank Blalock: .279/.340/.475, 12 HR.  Blalock has had serious injury issues the last few years, and his production has suffered accordingly.  But he'll be 28 this year, and has one less rib, so maybe his body will find it easier to lug itself around now.

From the Bump: Starters

RHP Kevin Millwood: 165 IP, 5.15 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 115 K, 52 BB.  God, he's their ace?  We're already getting depressed.

RHP Vicente Padilla: 160 IP, 5.21 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 110 K, 61 BB.  Thankfully, his contract is up after this year.  We're spiraling downward.

RHP Brandon McCarthy: 110 IP, 5.09 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 72 K, 44 BB.  The former White Sox prospect showed up with a newly muscled up body in hopes to stave off the injury bug that's bitten him recently, but he's already got shoulder stiffness.  Spiraling...

LHP Matt Harrison: 125 IP, 6.31 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 62 K, 49 BB.  And look at the former Brave.  We've now hit bottom. Thanks, Rangers.

You know, we don't care about their fifth starter and suspect that you don't, either.  We could throw out any name, with any line of horrible, horrible numbers, and it'd be believeable.  Let's just say that whoever ends up logging innings here will combine for something like a 6.50 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, not very many K's, and lots of walks.  We hope they prove us wrong, but...well...we've hit bottom, remember?

From the Bump: Starters

Closer RHP Frank Francisco: 60 IP, 3.23 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 66 K, 27 BB, 27 SV.  We know someone has to be the best pitcher on a baseball team, but when yours is Frank Francisco, you're probably in trouble.  That said, he's a useful guy who can rack up saves, Ks, and fan-related lawsuits.

Setup man LHP C.J. Wilson: 60 IP, 3.67 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 54 K, 27 BB.  Wilson was tabbed as the closer last year, but suffered with bone spurs in his elbow before ultimately shutting it down.  '08 was a lost season for Wilson, but we like him to rebound a little bit this year.  Which means that the Rangers will have TWO useful pitchers!  They'll be celebrating in the streets when they read this.

Team Preview: Chicago White Sox

So in the spirit of Spring Training, it's time to start up with team previews. Teams will be previewed in approximately the same order as we like them. We try not to accord too much favor or bias around here, but...we like some teams more than others. This will only be reflected in the order of the previews. We promise. Sort of. Anyway, the general idea is that we'll talk a bit about the team to preface it all, mention how they did last year and what they've done to address the situation this year. We'll guess at what they will look like on the diamond, and who will log significant innings and/or saves in Around the Horn and From the Bump, respectively. Furthermore, we'll use PECOTA to help us predict what they'll each do this year. Should be great fun. Let's get going.

The White Sox took the AL Central crown last year on the strength of a 1-game playoff, becoming the first team ever to win their last three games against three different teams (Indians, Tigers, Twins).  This was a feat principally accomplished on the strength of MLB's 6th-best offense at 4.98 runs per game, matched with above-average pitching that allowed 4.47 runs per game, 12th in MLB.  Most of their success came from unexpected players; no one saw LF Carlos Quentin, former Diamondbacks prospect, posting an MVP-caliber .287/.394/.571 line, SS/2B Alexei Ramirez was better than people could've reasonably hoped, RF Jermaine Dye was resurgent, and RHP John Danks was a revelation.

GM Ken Williams, as he is wont to do, got busy this offseason and tinkered quite a bit with the division champs.  He shipped RHP Javier Vazquez to the Braves in exchange for prospects at two positions where they really needed minor leauge depth, acquiring middle infielder Brent Lillibridge and C Tyler Flowers.  Disappointing OF/1B Nick Swisher (a name ripe for parody, so we think it really would've been in his best interest NOT to hit .219) was also traded, bringing back utility man Wilson Betemit and relievers Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez, both marginal prospects.  It was clear from the beginning of the offseason that SS Orlando Cabrera was on the outs, and he will now ply his trade in Oakland at a bargain rate.  OF Ken Griffey, Jr. also departed after his brief tenure on the south side,  heading back to Seattle where his legend got started.  To compensate for the losses, Williams brought in powerful young Cuban emigre Dayan Viciedo as the third baseman on the future, gave the full-time SS job to powerful young Cuban Alexei Ramirez, and signed Jayson Nix to compete for playing time at second base with Chris Getz and Lillibridge.  OF Dewayne Wise will unwisely (sorry) be the man in center, though speedy slap hitter Jerry Owens and glove man Brian Anderson (just kidding; Ozzie hates him) will be around to steal some ABs.

As for the pitching, the Sox will be counting on contributions from talented young LHPs Clayton Richard and Aaron Poreda, as well as not-so-talented-but-still-young RHP Lance Broadway.  Not at all young, and probably not that talented any more RHP Bartolo Colon is back in town; we have a soft spot for him ever since seeing him take a perfect game into the 5th against the...well, some team.  But that effort went the way of the dodo when Joe Crede missed a diving stop on a ball down the line.  Anyway, Colon and Jose Contreras are going to be responsible for a full slate of innings from a rotation spot, so we'll see if that works out.

2009 Forecast

PECOTA projected record: 75-87, last in AL Central

KCSD projected record: 80-82, 3rd in AL Central

The Central's weak overall, though there will be some stiff competition for the top spots.  Whoever does win this division, it's not exactly going to be a case of the cream rising to the top...it's just one subpar team triumphing over other subpar teams.

Around the Horn

C A.J. Pierzynski: .270/.310/.396, 10 HR.  Age isn't often kind to catchers, and we don't see it making an exception for Pierzynski.  In his age-32 season, it's not likely for him to improve on last year's showing, and it's a good thing that Tyler Flowers is around to start taking over the mantle.

1B Paul Konerko: .261/.351/.469, 24 HR.  For some reason, between 2006 and 2007, Konerko's average dropped over 50 points.  Last year, he demonstrated a slight recovery in that area, and has posted remarkably similar OBPs despite the large drop off.  His power hasn't really returned, though; this shows that Paulie possesses a good batting eye that should age well, even if his bat isn't.

2B Chris Getz: .260/.314/.356, 4 HR.  We don't have much in the way of good things to say about Getz.  He's organizational filler, but a breakout year in Charlotte has given the team faith that he can produce at the major league level.  We think that's false hope. He's got a pretty useless bat, and is below average in the field.  Should've held on to Cabrera, we think.

3B Josh Fields: .235/.340/.475, 20 HR.  Never a high contact guy, the former Oklahoma State quarterback does possess a strong bat and, presumably, a good arm across the diamond.  Turning 26, he could be a real asset if he can get his Ks down and up the contact rate a bit.

SS Alexei Ramirez: .290/.321/.457, 17 HR, 11 SB.  It astounds us that a guy as skinny as Ramirez can have as much power as he does, but his bat certainly seems legit.  This will be his age-27 season, so we can expect some progress.  We are tempering our expectations a bit because of it being his sophomore year and he came out of Cuba, but he could easily surpass our expectations.

LF Carlos Quentin: .273/.381/.525, 26 HR.  Quentin will be turning 26 this year, but we're still projecting a drop in power due to the broken wrist that ended his season last year.  We're not often scared off by injuries, but when it comes to hitters, we're of the opinion that anything in the arms is bad news.

CF Dewayne Wise: .240/.297/.416, 14 HR, 14 SB.  The sad thing is that we're pretty sure that this projection may be overestimating his skills.  But he really showed some promise in AAA before being called up last year, so maybe there is some skill in the bat that has yet to be tapped. For his sake, we hope so.

RF Jermaine Dye: .280/.350/.517, 28 HR.  Yes, Dye is getting on in years, but his rebound last year from a terrible year in '07 really showed us that he's got something left in his bat.  At 35, we think he can still show it off.

DH Jim Thome: .250/.350/.490, 27 HR.  Thome's REALLY getting on in years; this will be his age-38 season.  We really like big Jim, and for his sake, we hope we're low on our projection; this would be his first healthy season with less than 30 HRs since 2005 and his first sub-.500 slugging percentage since 1993.  One of the most consistent and likable sluggers of our time, we may be seeing his last truly productive season - or just last season, as his contract runs out after this year.  Also expect to see Wilson Betemit and Josh Fields log some time here to help give the pair enough ABs.

From the Bump: Starters

LHP Mark Buerhle: 200 IP, 3.97 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 120 K, 55 BB.  Buerhle has made his money being a consistent innings eater; he isn't dominant, but the crafty lefty has logged his 200 innings effectively for as long as we can remember.  He sits atop the rotation as much for nostalgia as anything, but that's not to say that he's not a well above-average pitcher.  We think you can expect more of the same until he retires.

LHP John Danks: 180 IP, 3.48 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 130 K, 50 BB.  The young Danks posted a very impressive campaign last season, having added a devestating cutter to his repertoire.  He demonstrated that he really knows how to use the pitch, and should see continued success with it as he develops.  Look for more great seasons down the road from the youngster - after all, he's gotta stay ahead of his brother, Jordan, also in the system.

RHP Gavin Floyd:  170 IP, 4.29 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 120 K, 60 BB.  Once a failed (phailed?) Phillie prospect, Floyd brought his devastating curveball to the South Side with great success last season.  He looked like he'd really put it together, posting a sub-4.00 ERA and 1.26 WHIP over 200 innings.  At 26, he seems like a good bet to continue with his success, but we're wary of his spotty health record in previous seasons.

LHP Clayton Richard: 140 IP, 4.98 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 80 K, 40 BB.  Richard scuffled in the early minors, but turned into a monster in AA and AAA.  He was less than impressive in his major league debut, but the lefty should be able to put up numbers closer to his high minors performance because...well, because we trust young prospects much more than we should.

RHPs Jose Contreras/Bartolo Colon: 200 IP, 5.59 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 122 K, 72 BB.  We're putting Contreras and Colon together in this fifth spot because it's about as sure a thing as can be that neither will be healthy all season long, and both will be hurling frames from the back end of the rotation.  This isn't a terrible contribution from your fifth spot, but it is, well, a pretty terrible contribution overall.  Don't expect great things from these cagey vets.  Even thinking that the two of them combined are good for 200 innings is a bit of a reach.

From the Bump: Relievers

Closer Bobby Jenks: 60 IP, 2.59 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 42 K, 20 BB, 34 SV.  Bad Bobby Jenks has showed some restraint in recent seasons, not dialing up his flamethrowing arm to the 100+ mph velocity it's been capable of in the past.  He's only seen a reduction in his K's since making the switch, but quite frankly, we don't like it one bit.  Entertain us, Bobby!  Throw the hot, stinky cheese!  We'll always rank his K of Jeff Bagwell in the 8th inning of Game 1 of the '05 World Series as one of our all-time favorite ABs - straight 100 MPH fastballs, up and in, daring one of the greatest hitters ever to put a bat on it...and he couldn't.  Those were the days.

Setup man  Octavio Dotel: 55 IP, 3.80 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 71 K, 32 BB.  The hard-throwing, high-socked Dotel has always been a formidable bullpen arm...when healthy.  Unfortunately, his body has betrayed him as he's pushed past 30, and he's had more breakdowns than healthy campaigns.  If he can stay healthy, and we're assuming that he can, he's a good power arm to stick in front of Jenks.  If the rest of the bullpen can fall in line the way they did in '05, you can expect great things from the South Siders...then again, how often can you coax a 2.04 ERA out of Dustin Hermanson types?  

Bonus coverage: Hermanson was a 1st-round pick.  We love the uncertainty of the baseball draft, and how can't miss prospects do so often...well, miss.  If you can draft well, you've got a lot of great things coming your way (e.g.  the Rays), but most teams can't...and yet they treat their draft picks like gold all of a sudden.  We're not saying there's no value in the draft, because it's a great, cost-effective way to build talent.  But most teams just aren't very good at it, and haven't showed much potential to get better.  So why not take a chance on more proven commodities?  It's nice to trust your scouts, but have some sense.  I know everyone's financially concerned these days, but at some point, it's cheaper to sign free agents than it is to spend the money upgrading your scouting department to the point where they can be a real asset.

Team Preview: Kansas City Royals

So in the spirit of Spring Training, it's time to start up with team previews. Teams will be previewed in approximately the same order as we like them. We try not to accord too much favor or bias around here, but...we like some teams more than others. This will only be reflected in the order of the previews. We promise. Sort of. Anyway, the general idea is that we'll talk a bit about the team to preface it all, mention how they did last year and what they've done to address the situation this year. We'll guess at what they will look like on the diamond, and who will log significant innings and/or saves in Around the Horn and From the Bump, respectively. Furthermore, we'll use PECOTA to help us predict what they'll each do this year. Should be great fun. Let's get going.

We never had much of an affinity for the Royals beyond admiring their utter futility.  But upon entering into the internet universe, we discovered that the Royals have quite the devoted fanbase, notably our favorite sportswriter, Joe Posnanski, and dermatologist-cum-baseball fan Rany Jazayerli. Their writing really inspired us to become a more intelligent fan, and also to support the cause of bringing the Royals up from the ashes.  Excluding the Braves, we've probably read more about the Royals than any other baseball team in the league.  Which is kind of sad, we suppose...seems like only the true fans should have to partake in the Royals brand of misery.

Anyway, onto real business.  The Royals managed to not finish in last last year, posting a 75-87 record that bested the Tigers by one game.  They weren't particularly good at anything, coming in at 25th in MLB in runs scored per game (4.27) and 22nd in runs allowed per game (4.83).  Their offense, as you could guess, lacked any real stars, though the unexpectedly potent bat of Mike Aviles (.325/.354/.480) provided a big boost.  Jose Guillen was a big disappointment in the first year of a 3/$30 million deal, hitting .264/.300/.438 - borderline unacceptable for any corner outfielder, let alone one with a stone glove and a big contract.  This year, however, he removed an ingrown toenail all by himself, which we have to imagine portends great things.  David DeJesus was his usual consistent (read: boring, yet effective) self, Alex Gordon took a step forward, and Billy Butler shows an enormous amount of promise.  GM Dayton Moore (former Braves front office man!) made some moves this offseason to try to bolster the lineup, bringing in glove man Coco Crisp (public enemy no. 1 here at KCSD; we have a post ready about why he's a discredit to humanity which will be deployed at some point) to man center field, and powerful bald man Mike Jacobs to stand at first base with a glove on his hand.  

These are really just the latest moves in what has been an overall questionable tenure for Moore.  Hailed as a wunderkind coming out of the Braves organization, Moore has been responsible for Crisp and Jacobs - mediocre at best imports, and poor fits for a lineup already lacking in OBP.  He shelled out the big bucks for Jose Guillen and Kyle Farnsworth, neither of which looks like a particularly great decision (though we did, and do, support the Gil Meche signing).  Maybe RHP Kyle Davies finally pans out and gives him another good starter; maybe Mike Aviles keeps up his hitting tear; maybe Coco Crisp returns to 2005 form (doubtful, since he is a deplorable soul).  Regardless, it's been a bit of an unauspicious start for Moore in that he doesn't seem to know what he wants to do. We hope he really sorts things out and can stick to a long-term plan; the Royals faithful deserve as much.

As for the pitching, it's an extraordinarily top-heavy group.  RHPs Zack Greinke, Gil Meche, and Joakim Soria are a playoff caliber nucleus of starts and closer; RHPs Ramon Ramirez and Leo Nunez have been quality bullpen arms, as has LHP Ron Mahay (to our surprise).  RHP Kyle Davies (a former Braves prospect, as are a surprising amount of Royals pitchers - we'll get to that shortly) posted a good 4.06 ERA, but a low strikeout rate (5.65 per 9) and some slight control issues (3.42 BB per 9; acceptable only for someone who misses more bats than Davies) make that number look slightly fluky.  For the Royals to succeed, they need repeated success from their bullpen - which RHP Juan Cruz should certainly help; he was a great addition - and a big step forward from their young starters, all of whom have potential to do exactly that.

As for the former Braves thing, a perusal of their transaction log reveals a lot of former Tomahawkers.  To wit: Kyle Davies, Ron Mahay, Juan Cruz, Horacio Ramirez, Oscar Villareal, Roman Colon, Kyle Farnsworth, and Tony and Brayan Pena.  This is, in all likelihood, completely coincidental and irrelevant, but it's still kinda neat.  We think.

2009 Forecast 

PECOTA projected record: 76-86, 4th in AL Central

KCSD projected record: 78-84, 4th in AL Central

We think the AL Central is a fairly tough division; at any rate, we think the Tigers, Indians, and White Sox are all demonstrably better, but also that the Royals aren't far off.  It's an optimistic 78 win projection that we're hanging on them.

Around the Horn

C John Buck: .231/.303/.393, 15 HR.  Buck's just not a very good hitter, but he is going to be 28, and has demonstrated a small bit of power in the past.  That's not to say we're very optimistic; this is still a veritable black hole for the Royals.

1B Mike Jacobs: .261/.313/.505, 26 HR.  Jacobs is good for exactly one thing: hitting the long ball.  And chicks dig that, so Jacobs is ok by us!  The biggest problem for the Royals is that between Jacobs and Billy Butler, they have two powerful bats and zero capable gloves.  First base is going to be ugly this year.

2B Alberto Callaspo: .287/.367/.391, 3 HR.  Callaspo possesses a valuable skill that is rare in this lineup: a good batting eye.  Of course, he comes with the baggage of being an (alleged) woman beater with something of a drinking problem, but if he can get his life straight, he can get some good PT and put up a good line.  We think.

3B Alex Gordon: .271/.357/.491, 25 HR, 12 SB.  Gordon arrived with as much hype as any other prospect in recent years, and, for the most part, has failed to deliver.  But he was excellent in the second half last season, and while his defense slipped, his bat should compensate in his age-25 season.

SS Mike Aviles: .290/.335/.468, 16 HR.  We like Aviles to continue hitting like he did in his 441 MLB ABs; a very strong recent minor league track record leads us to believe that his bat is legitimate.  Negative reviews of his defense have thusfar proved unsubstantiated; he was well above average last year, and if he can keep that up this year, too, then he'll be one of the better shortstops in the league.

LF David DeJesus: .282/.347/.436, 10 HR, 10 SB.  DeJesus suffered a severe drop in production two seasons ago, but posted the best season of his career as a 28-year old in 2008.  He won't repeat those numbers (.307/.366/.452, 12, 11) but he should come close.

CF Coco Crisp: .275/.340/.401, 7 HR, 16 SB.  We'd like to hope that he fails to crack the Mendoza line, but he seemed to figure things out a little last season after his career had been going steadily downhill since his banner '05.  So we begrudgingly project him to be decent for a CF.  That's as nice as we'll be for Covelli.

RF Jose Guillen: .271/.308/.424, 14 HR.  We've always felt Guillen got a raw deal, but we never had to deal with him in the clubhouse and so always sort of discounted his general attitude.  As such, we want to project him higher, but he kinda went off a cliff last year, and he's going to be 33, so we don't think there's much chance of him rebounding. 

From the Bump: Starters

RHP Gil Meche: 208 IP, 3.79 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 175 K, 68 BB.  As we mentioned, we think Meche was very much a worthy signing, and we think he'll continue to prove it in his age-30 season.  He demonstrated great strikeout potential last year at the cost of increased walks, a trend that we like - an increased ability to miss bats at 29 speaks well to his ability to make adjustments and good stuff.

RHP Zack Greinke: 200 IP, 3.19 ERA, 1.20 ERA, 192 K, 55 BB.  We think Greinke has the talent to be one of the best pitchers in the league, and if it weren't for Meche's millions, he'd be the ace of the team.  The question with him has always been whether he has the mental makeup to put it all together; this is, after all, a man who walked away from baseball for a year because of emotional issues.  We trust and hope that he can; only 25, the future is very, very bright for Greinke.

RHP Brian Bannister: 175 IP, 5.18 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 100 K, 68 BB.  Bannister has been a favorite of Joe Posnanski's; his cerebral approach and knowledge of advanced statistical analysis and how to manipulate it is, admittedly, rather fascinating.  He has showed a marvelous ability to adapt his game, seemingly raising K rates at will, or nibbling at spots when necessary.  And yet, his underwhelming stuff simply makes it very difficult to be much better than average.

RHP Kyle Davies: 130 IP, 5.05 ERA, 1.53 ERA, 82 K, 50 BB.  We simply don't think Davies is very good.  He was great for awhile as a rookie with the Braves, but he hasn't showed much promise ever since.  Furthermore, he's always struggled with his health; our 130 IP could easily be too high.

RHP Luke Hochevar: 140 IP, 4.84 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 85 K, 44 BB.  We're a sucker for young talent; the 6'5'' Hochevar is a recent draftee who has plenty of it.  We think he can be pretty good, even though he didn't exactly light the world on fire in his debut season.  If he can take a big step forward, that would be huge for the Royals, who are seriously lacking in starting pitching after their top two guys.

From the Bump: Relievers

Closer Joakim Soria: 68 IP, 1.87 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 72 K, 19 BB, 38 SV.  The Mexicutioner (good work by Rany Jazayerli getting him nicknamed) was lights out last season, and there's no reason to think he can't continue it this year.  Already one of the preeminent closers in the game, he has overpowering stuff that makes hitters look silly, and, at 25, he's only going to get better.  

Setup man Juan Cruz: 66 IP, 3.10 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 81 K, 36 BB.  A great strikeout pitcher (averaging more than 1 per inning for his career), Cruz was a fantastic signing to help bolster the back end of the bullpen.  He's the extra power arm that can really bring everything together, especially because his presence means that Kyle Farnsworth won't be seeing as many important innings.  We love Farnsworth, but his deal was a mistake, and his tendency to serve up gopher balls doesn't bode well for late-inning relievers.

Team Preview: Baltimore Orioles

So in the spirit of Spring Training, it's time to start up with team previews. Teams will be previewed in approximately the same order as we like them. We try not to accord too much favor or bias around here, but...we like some teams more than others. This will only be reflected in the order of the previews. We promise. Sort of. Anyway, the general idea is that we'll talk a bit about the team to preface it all, mention how they did last year and what they've done to address the situation this year. We'll guess at what they will look like on the diamond, and who will log significant innings and/or saves in Around the Horn and From the Bump, respectively. Furthermore, we'll use PECOTA to help us predict what they'll each do this year. Should be great fun. Let's get going.

Next up is the Baltimore Orioles.  Simply put, the Orioles were pretty bad last year.  They could hit, sure, clocking in at 11th in MLB with 4.86 runs scored per game, but pitching was, like with the Tigers, a problem.  They allowed a whopping 5.40 runs per game, ranking 28th out of the 30 teams in our national pastime.  Basically, they were like Tigers-lite; they could score, but not as well as Detroit, and pitched even more poorly.  Part of the problem was that they had exactly zero (0) capable shortstops last year.  Alex Cintron got a hundred ABs at the position, but his defense and...well, the fact that Alex Cintron got a hundred ABs more or less speaks for itself. 

Side note: it is the official KCSD belief that no matter how good or bad a team is, they are instantly made better by having a great shortstop.  In our mind, it's the marquee position in the field.  Had the Nats had, say, Jose Reyes manning the 6, they would be, if not actually much, much better, than at least better perceived.  But we digress.

This year, former Cardinal (and Cub, and Blue Jay, and Dodger, and Pirate) Cesar Izturis will be flashing the leather at short for the O's - and the leather is about all he's good for.  He has never posted an above-league average OPS+ (coming closest in '04 with an 88), mostly because he has all the power of a gerbil.  Who suffered a tragic boating accident (don't ask) and lost his front paws.  We shudder to remember.  Anyway, at the very least , he can be a capable contributor, someone who will at least get a season's worth of at bats and be a defensive contributor - and that alone is a huge upgrade.  Speaking of defense, the Orioles may boast the best defensive outfield in baseball, featuring the stellar gloves of Felix Pie in left, Adam Jones in center, and Nick Markakis in right.  And it's a good thing, too, because their pitching is going to need all the help they can get.

Most of the excitement around the Orioles is centered around their boatloads of young talent.  Adam Jones, Nick Markakis, Felix Pie, Matt Wieters, Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta...the list is impressive, and nearly all are almost ready (or already are) to be major league contributors.  Wieters in particular has scouts and PECOTA alike drooling; a fairly common choice as the best prospect in baseball, PECOTA's weighted mean forecast for him this year calls for a .311/.395/.544 line - which would probably be the best of all catchers in 2009.  And the kid hasn't even had an AB in the majors.

However, the hope for a mercurial rise to the top of the AL East is tempered by the fact that the pitching is not likely to make great strides, and the fact that it's the AL East.  The Yankees and Red Sox have forever had a death grip on the division, and now the Rays have a claim as the best team of the elite group.  The Blue Jays have been an underrated contender; their pitching and defense would make them favorites in most other divisions.  In short, there's no easy path to success on the Eastern front, so the O's just have to wait and see and hope.

2009 Forecast

PECOTA projected record: 76-86, 4th in AL East

KCSD projected record: 78-84, 4th in AL East

We like the Orioles' bats a bit more than PECOTA, so our win projection is slightly more optimistic. But until they can get some real pitching, they're never going to be better than an also-ran.

Around the Horn

C Matt Wieters: .290/.368/.490, 22 HR.  Obviously a star in the making, Wieters has a complete bat from both sides of the plate, and is a defensive asset to boot.  We're not as optimistic as PECOTA, because he's still a rookie, but he's got all the talent and opportunity to prove himself - we don't see the Guillermo "who?" Quiroz or Gregg "gggg" Zaun taking away too many ABs from the kid.

1B Aubrey Huff: .275/.338/.457, 20 HR.  Huff enjoyed an enormous power spike last year, posting near-career highs in HR (32) and SLG (.552).  However, in his age-32 season, we don't like the power to keep up to such rates; we see him coming back to earth somewhat.  Earns bonus points for his ability to make fans forget his rant on sports radio about Baltimore a couple years ago.

2B Brian Roberts: .285/.368/.440, 14 HR, 32 SB.  After somehow remaining in Bawlmer despite an offseason rife with rumors of his departure, Roberts posted his usual excellent numbers, and signed a 4-year extension this past offseason.  There's not much else to say about him; he makes great contact and has good pop and speed for a keystone guy.  They can build with him.

3B Melvin Mora: .275/.331/.432, 14 HR.  Somehow slugged .480 last year, despite being 36.  We don't have much to say about Mora other than he seems certain to collapse at some point, especially if Carl Pavano finally gets his way.  We loved the Dugout.

SS Cesar Izturis: .252/.308/.322, 0 HR, 20 SB.  The man with the golden glove!

LF Felix Pie: .285/.329/.458, 15 HR, 13 SB.  We love Pie, and think that his minor league track record is just too good not to bear itself out at the major league level.  Our line may be a bit optimistic, but we think we're discounting him a little bit because of the AL East competition.  The kid's only 24 and is finally getting full-time duty; we see big things coming.

CF Adam Jones: .289/.351/.479, 22 HR, 12 SB.  We may have to call him Pacman just in case the other Adam fades from public consciousness, but he's more than just a cool name.  Kid's great in the field and projects for great things at the plate, which is why he was the prize in the ill-fated (for the Mariners) Erik Bedard trade.  After a solid rookie campaign, he should take steps forward this year.

RF Nick Markakis: .319/.416/.525, 30 HR, 11 SB.  The Greek has a great bat and tops it off with good wheels, a better glove, and a shiny new 6-year contract to call his own.  He's been getting better each year of his young career; at 25 he should really start to put it together. 

DH Luke Scott/Ty Wigginton: .270/.360/.489, 24 HR.  With Scott doing his thing from the left side and Wigginton from the right, these two make a pretty formidable DH combination.  Also, both have been underappreciated Astros in the past.  Irrelevent? You bet. 

From the Bump: Starters

RHP Jeremy Guthrie: 180 IP, 4.37 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 108 K, 50 BB.  The former top prospect finally broke out at age 30, posting a very solid season for the otherwise woeful O's.  Expect some regression this year as scouting reports and his age make a repeat effort an uphill climb.

RHP Koji Uehara: 165 IP, 4.56 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 103 K, 32 BB.  The control freak from Japan should fare with some success here, as long as he avoids falling behind in counts, at which point his hittable fastball could betray him.  He's going to face some tough lineups, and he's fairly old, but a pitcher can do a lot with great control.

RHP Radhames Liz: 120 IP, 5.79 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 87 K, 58 BB.  Aaaand here comes the steep decline.  There's a veritable pu-pu platter of options to fill the remaining three rotation spots, and we'll spare you the poo-poo joke (sort of) by saying that none of them are very appetizing.  At least Liz is only 26, we guess.  Another thing about Liz: not a very good pitcher.

LHP Mark Hendrickson: 100 IP, 5.27 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 57 K, 33 BB.  Another terrible pitcher!  At least Hendrickson is tall!  Of course, when that picture represents the height of your athletic accomplishments, and you're a pitcher, you're in trouble.

LHP Rich Hill: 110 IP, 4.77 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 79 K, 43 BB.  We think Hill has a lot of promise still; like Pie, getting away from the Cubs' yo-yo treatment of their prospects can only help.  He'll have to fight for innings, and he still hasn't proven that he has his control down yet, but at least he offers some upside.  We hope he gets more innings than this, but we aren't counting on a firm rotation for the Orioles, so he gets the weak projection.

From the Bump: Relievers

Closer Chris Ray: 60 IP, 3.15 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 50 K, 18 BB, 21 SV.  We're guessing that Ray gets the closer job that he claimed and succeeded in when the Jays signed away B.J. Ryan, but George Sherrill's skill at racking up the save count in Ray's surgery-induced absence last year makes that less of a certainty.

Setup man George Sherrill, 60 IP, 3.91 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 57 K, 24 BB, 12 SV.  The southpaw with the funky hat, Sherrill was decent last year, but collapsed down the stretch, probably opening up the closer's role this year.  We don't see a clear winner in the competition; we think Ray is the better pitcher, but both will, in all likelihood, get their fill of save chances.

Team Preview: Detroit Tigers

So in the spirit of Spring Training, it's time to start up with team previews. Teams will be previewed in approximately the same order as we like them. We try not to accord too much favor or bias around here, but...we like some teams more than others. This will only be reflected in the order of the previews. We promise. Sort of. Anyway, the general idea is that we'll talk a bit about the team to preface it all, mention how they did last year and what they've done to address the situation this year. We'll guess at what they will look like on the diamond, and who will log significant innings and/or saves in Around the Horn and From the Bump, respectively. Furthermore, we'll use PECOTA to help us predict what they'll each do this year. Should be great fun. Let's get going.

The Motor City Kitties were supposed to roar last year.  Adding Miguel Cabrera to a potent lineup already featuring star-caliber outfielders in Curtis Granderson, Magglio Ordonez, and (to a lesser extent) Marcus Thames, plus the capable bats of Placido Polanco, Carlos Guillen, and Ivan Rodriguez was supposed to be the sort of move that would make for, according to some predictions, a 1000-run season for the Tigers - which would be just the 8th time since 1900 that such a feat would occur.  And, everyone's favorite former GM Steve Phillips went on record as saying that it would be the "most dynamic offense in the history of baseball."

Now.  Phillips' patented ridiculousness out of the way, the Tigers had a fairly respectable offense last year.  They put up 5.02 runs per game, 5th in MLB, and had Gary Sheffield launched his 500th, they would've had 5 hitters put up 20+ home runs.  There's good balance from top to bottom in the lineup, featuring two of the best players in the game in Cabrera and Granderson, and a healthy season from an aging (aged?) Sheffield can only help.  The Indians are the only team in the AL Central that can compete in the batter's box.

The Tigers troubles, however, came from the mound.  Their pitching was, in a word, abysmal.  They managed to give up 5.29 runs per game - outdoing their prolific offense - which was "good" for 27th in MLB.  They had one (1) consistently capable starter in RHP Armando Galarraga, he of the career minor league 4.13 ERA, who was excellent all season, posting a 3.73 ERA and 33.2 VORP, both team bests, in 30 starts.  Justin Verlander, Kenny Rogers, and Nate Robertson...well, give them credit for showing up, we guess.  At 33, 30, and 28 starts apiece, they at least gave the team some innings.  However, in Rogers and Robertson's case, they might as well have stayed home; each posted a negative VORP, meaning a replacement level player - basically any minor leaguer getting a cup of coffee - would have outperformed them.  They also posted respective ERAs of 5.70 and 6.35.  Outstanding work, gentlemen.  Verlander had high points during the year, but was mostly a disappointment; mechanical troubles undermined the promise he'd shown the last few seasons, and he limped to the finish with a 4.84 ERA to go along with a 12.3 VORP.

2009 Forecast

PECOTA projected record: 81-81, 2nd in AL Central

KCSD projected record: 83-79, 1st in AL Central

We think the Tigers get a bit of a bad rap for the disappointment of last season; the lineup should be huge again this year, and the pitching can only improve. Right?

Around the Horn

C Gerald Laird: .262/.324/.407, 10 HR.  Laird showed a lot of promise in 2006, putting up a .296/.332/.473 line, but has since scuffled in part-time duty with the Rangers.  With Matt "Mr. Misty" Treanor backing him up, he should get the opportunity for plenty of ABs, and we think he can improve on the last couple seasons.

1B Miguel Cabrera: .311/.389/.583, 38 HR.  One of the best pure hitters in baseball, Cabrera arrived with a lot of expectations on his head, and didn't disappoint.  He led the AL in HRs and total bases, but his batting eye went significantly downhill - to wit, his OBP dropped from consecutive seasons of .400+ to .349.  He's demonstrated in the past that he can be a patient slugger, and we think he'll be just that this year, and be an MVP contender.

2B Placido Polanco: .299/.342/.390, 5 HR.  Never a KCSD favorite, Jawbone Polanco has made his money being a slap hitter who has enormous contact ability and is difficult to strike out, but has little else to offer.  Roughly an average defender, he'll contribute a more or less empty .300 or so average, which is fine for the keystone.

3B Brandon Inge: .241/.301/.417, 12 HR.  Finally, the Angry Inge has a position all to himself.  We like him for his high socks and his 2006 season, where we're pretty sure he set a record for home runs out of the 9 hole with at least 20.  We take pride in our research here.  Unfortunately, that was 3 seasons ago, and there likely just isn't that much left in his bat, especially for a third basegentleman.

SS Adam Everett: .237/.288/.332, 0 HR.  Ugh.  A throwback to the halcyon days of the all-glove no-stick shortstop, Everett is a whiz with the leather and a fizz with the bat (we're sorry).  The Tigers D was pretty terrible last year, which didn't help the pitchers, and Everett certainly represents a commitment to fixing that.

Side note: Everyone seems to be all about defense this year, since the Rays went from worst to first in defense and subsequently from laughingstock to AL champion.  But...come on, does this really mean that Adam Dunn and Bobby Abreu don't get signed until just before Spring Training, and even then, on cut-rate deals?  Manny Ramirez, one of the 5 best right handed hitters OF ALL TIME, remains unsigned, presumably because he can't play defense.  Teams have the money to throw at him - look at the Braves offering 60 mil to AJ "Contract Year" Burnett!  You're telling me they couldn't give Manny that money for 3 years?  They don't need the LF help? Not to mention the fact that defense is the hardest skill of all to quantify.  What a terrible offseason this was.  

/Simmons

ANYWAY, LF Carlos Guillen: .296/.360/.468, 14 HR, 10 SB.  Guillen had been a pretty subpar defender at short, so the move to left makes sense.  If he can stay healthy, his bat will play there for at least another year or two, and the dude wears so much Phiten that he can't help BUT stay healthy.  We love that stuff.

CF Curtis Granderson: .298/.376/.539, 27 HR, 18 SB.  Down year for Granderson in '08, but he was hindered by injuries.   At 28, he's still in his prime, and we think he's a great sleeper candidate.  We'd forgotten how good he was until just now, but the kid has it all.

RF Magglio Ordonez: .308/.389/.485, 20 HR.  Oh-wee-oh Magglio has been well above-average since the Tigers took a chance on him following his '04 offseason experimental knee surgery.  He rightfully received MVP consideration two seasons ago, and while he won't approach that level as a 35 year old, he's still a force to be reckoned with.

From the Bump: Starters

RHP Justin Verlander: 196 IP, 3.67 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 164 K, 65 BB.  We think that Verlander, 26, is still a beast from the mound.  He had mechanical troubles and consistency issues last year, sure, but he was 25.  He is still developing, and was posting some of the better pitching performances in the league the two years before.  When he hits his prime, he's going to be scary.

RHP Jeremy Bonderman: 160 IP, 4.50 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 130 K, 60 BB.  Bonderman flew back to Detroit today for tests on a "stiff right shoulder," which is the first setback thusfar in his recovery from a series of medical disasters last year.  He had a blood clot (and a rib!) removed last year, so hopefully that's an issue of the past, but it appears that a heavy workload at a young age took its toll on the promising Bonderman.  He, too, is only 26, but we have less hope for him than for Verlander.

RHP Armando Galarraga: 150 IP, 4.82 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 100 K, 50 BB.  Galarraga was, as mentioned, very good last year, but there's nothing in his minor league track record to suggest it's for real.  With a full season of scouting reports on him now, let's see how he and the hitters adjust to each other - we're not betting on it working out in his favor.

RHP Edwin Jackson: 152 IP, 4.10 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 110 K, 60 BB.  We think Jackson - only 25 - is going to have a breakout year this year.  His control remains an issue, but he has great stuff, and should just be learning how to harness it.  With a set spot in the rotation, he should be able to hone his craft well enough to be an above-average pitcher.

LHP Nate Robertson: 120 IP, 5.10 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 80 K, 50 BB.  The begoggled lefthander isn't especially good at throwing baseballs, but neither are Zach Miner and Dontrelle Willis (how the mighty have forgotten how to throw strikes).  Rick Porcello is the future, and these guys are just keeping a rotation spot warm until he's ready.  Hopefully they don't cost the team too many games in the meantime.

From the Bump: Relievers

Closer Brandon Lyon: 55 IP, 3.90 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 30 K, 12 BB, 29 SV.  Yet another middling solution at closer for the Tigers, Lyon will likely continue the Todd Jones tradition of exciting-in-a-bad-way saves, but they're saves nonetheless - which is to say, meaningless unless you're playing fantasy baseball.

Setup man Joel Zumaya: 60 IP, 3.50 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 65 K, 40 BB.  The flamethrowing righty has struggled with his health in the last couple of seasons, and it's entirely possible that his arm simply can't handle the stress of throwing as fast as he does - consistently over 100 mph - over a full season.  But we remember an ESPN article where it mentioned that he hit 100 over 200 times in 2006, and we're always going to love him for that, poor control be damned.

Team Preview: Chicago Cubs

So in the spirit of Spring Training, it's time to start up with team previews. Teams will be previewed in approximately the same order as we like them. We try not to accord too much favor or bias around here, but...we like some teams more than others. This will only be reflected in the order of the previews. We promise. Sort of. Anyway, the general idea is that we'll talk a bit about the team to preface it all, mention how they did last year and what they've done to address the situation this year. We'll guess at what they will look like on the diamond, and who will log significant innings and/or saves in Around the Horn and From the Bump, respectively. Furthermore, we'll use PECOTA to help us predict what they'll each do this year. Should be great fun. Let's get going.

Last year was supposed to be next year for the perennial bridesmaids from the North Side. With a powerful offense (at 5.32 runs per game, the 2nd most prolific in MLB) and outstanding pitching (4.17 RA per game, 4th in MLB), they appeared poised to make a deep playoff run, especially after knocking out 97 regular season wins, second only to the Angels. But a lackadaisical showing in the field cost them dearly against the Dodgers in the NLDS, as the Manny-led Blue Bombers swept the Cubbies out of the playoffs. This year, GM Jim Hendry has made several changes that he hopes can vanquish the ghost of the goat and finally bring a World Series trophy back to Wrigley.

To this end, Hendry inked mercurial OF Milton Bradley to a 3 year, $30 million deal, hoping Bradley's powerful bat will be in the lineup often enough in the coming seasons to justify his millions. He, much moreso than fellow FA signee Joey Gathright, will help to offset the loss of once-reviled Jim Edmonds, whose 23.0 VORP placed him 9th on the team. Also departing this offseason: little-reviled utility man Mark DeRosa. Posting a 35.4 VORP (3rd on the team) and wielding a handy glove at just about every position that doesn't require a mask made him a very valuable member of the team...so Hendry decided to trade him for the bag of baseballs that is the collection of minor league pitchers Jeff Stevens, Chris Archer, and John Gaub. Replacing him is Aaron Miles, who is not especially gifted at putting his bat on a baseball. But just between us and you, we hear he's a force at shuffleboard.

As for notable moves in the pitching department, longtime Cub Kerry Wood, whose rookie year 20 K, 1 "H" (it was an error), performance is the best pitching performance that we can think of. Unfortunately, we're pretty sure that he left more of an impression on the training table than on the mound (seriously, you can tour the clubhouse and lay in his body outline), so the Cubs didn't want to commit too much money over the next couple of years. They traded for RHP Kevin Gregg, a deal we pan because RHP prospect Jose Ceda is probably as good of a pitcher as Gregg right now, and will almost certainly be better in the next couple of seasons. But, Gregg comes with that all-important closer label and has a bucket of saves to his name, and profiles as the setup man to punchout savant Carlos Marmol, forming a fairly formidable back end of the bullpen. Cubs fans have also got to be excited about a full season (ha ha) from RHP Rich Harden (a Canadian), who made quite an impression in his blue pinstripes last season.

2009 Forecast

PECOTA projected record: 94-68, 1st in NL Central

KCDS projected record: 90-72, 1st in NL Central

We're not as bullish as PECOTA on their chances. A weaker outfield and the loss of DeRosa, plus what we think will be a subpar pitching performance, leaves lots of questions to be answered. But there's not much else to like in the Central.

Around the Horn

C Geovany Soto: .294/.379/.533. A rookie sensation last year, Soto really made an impression after not being particularly well-regarded as a prospect. A plus defender with an impact bat, Soto should have the backstop locked down for the Cubbies for years to come.

1B Derrek Lee: .287/.369/.454, 15 HR. A bit of a down year for D-Lee in 2008, who posted his lowest slugging percentage since 1999, and was below his career average in OBP. The 33-year old is likely in his decline phase, but his excellent glove and still above-average bat continue to provide value at first base.

2B Mike Fontenot: .278/.356/.440, 11 HR. We don't particularly care for Fontenot, but there's no denying that he's a serviceable player. There's no reason he can't put up DeRosa-like numbers up the middle, and he's going to help more than hurt.

3B Aramis Ramirez: .288/.363/.529, 30 HR. A rock at the hot corner since the 2003 heist that brought him and Kenny Lofton over from the Pirates, Ramirez, at 31, is still capable of putting up the big offensive numbers that he always has, and has added a good glove to go with it.

SS Ryan Theriot: .282/.359/.350, 22 SB. Ryan "Therallykiller" Theriot has a devoted fan following which belies his utter lack of power and marginal usefulness. He can be the SS on a championship team...we'd just rather that teams we like didn't try to have it that way.

LF Alfonso Soriano: .281/.348/.538, 38 HR, 25 SB. Soriano should continue to be worth his 8/$136 million deal, as his leg issues from last season should be fully healed, allowing him to put in a full season in front of the left field ivy. We just hope Sweet Lou has the head to move him down in the order, putting his estimable power to more efficient use.

CF Reed Johnson/Kosuke Fukudome: .280/.355/.419, 10 HR, 10 SB. Rosuke Fukuson (or whatever other amalgamation you prefer) projects as the two-headed monster in CF this year; I approximately weighted their numbers to reflect a 60-40 split in ABs. Fukudome was excellent in April last year, then tailed off badly; Johnson was about league-average in his 330 ABs. The two of them together won't be studly, and on a contender like the Cubs, may be something of a liability.

RF Milton Bradley: .310/.418/.540, 25 HR, 500 AB. Bradley, on the other hand, should be studly. We love his bat coming over to the National League, but whether his body can hold up while playing the outfield every day is going to be a huge issue for him. We're confident he can finally put it all together and be a huge part of what should be a strong Cubs lineup.

From the Bump: Starters

RHP Carlos Zambrano: 195 IP, 3.99 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 145 K, 80 BB. Zambrano's numbers have been trending the wrong way in the last couple of years, and it looks like heavy use in his younger days may be catching up with him. We like him to rebound a bit this year, since he's going to be 27 (we're surprised, too), and we like to ignore last season's arm problems. If they're fixed, and don't portend future trouble, Zambrano is still nearly ace-caliber.

RHP Ryan Dempster: 180 IP, 4.10 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 160 K, 70 BB. Dempster's return to the rotation was a smashing success last year, and it earned him a big payday. We don't think his numbers will be as great as last year's, but what we project him for is certainly serviceable for a number 2 guy. His age (32) isn't a huge concern for us since he spent the last couple of years in the bullpen; we think he has more tread on the tires to wear through yet.

RHP Rich Harden: 150 IP, 3.09 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 189 K, 62 BB. Harden is flat out dominating when he's capable of actually throwing a baseball. Unfortunately, it looks like his body is flat-out incapable of allowing him to do that over a full season. Just now 27, if he stays healthy, he would easily be the best pitcher on this team, and one of the best in baseball.

LHP Ted Lilly: 190 IP, 4.20 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 169 K, 53 BB. Lilly has, we think, always been somewhat underrated despite posting consistently above-average numbers, which stand out in today's age that lauds mediocrity on the mound. The lefty turns 33 this year, but having topped 200 IP in the last 2 seasons, seems well-poised to continue his excellent-for-the-back-end pitching for 2009.

LHP Sean Marshall: 140 IP, 4.50 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 102 K, 58 BB. Marshall finally has the opportunity to win a rotation spot outright after being fed some spot starts in the last few seasons. Competing with Aaron "Better in the bullpen" Heilman and Angel "Former top prospect" Guzman shouldn't be too difficult for the talented lefty; we see him taking the job.

From the Bump: Relievers

Closer Carlos Marmol: 60 IP, 2.35 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 85 K, 35 BB, 40 SV. Marmol has absolutely filthy stuff and the numbers to back it up, but as someone who's spent plenty of time watching him, he has stretches where his slider flattens out or he loses command of his heater...and when that happens, he can be prone to the long ball. He is the nominal closer, so he'll probably be relegated to not much more than 1 inning stints, but if we had our way, he'd be throwing 100 innings out of the pen to really maximize the value of his phenomenal right arm.

Setup man Kevin Gregg: 75 IP, 3.98 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 70 K, 35 BB. Gregg has been underwhelming in terms of how well he's actually pitched relative to the saves he's accumulated (62), but that's a function of the overvaluing of the save in today's game. A short-arm delivery and average offerings don't hold much promise for the future for this 31 year old, but with the plethora of bullpen arms the Cubs have, he doesn't need to be great for them to succeed.