Season Preview: Arizona Diamondbacks

Well we've got 30 days left until Opening Day, which means it's time to start up on the season previews. We'll be running it down team by team, with an added new wrinkle this time around: the beer of choice for fans of the team to enjoy whilst watching their team take the field! Nothing like that to help get you through a baseball season, especially if you're from Pittsburgh. Up first: the Arizona Diamondbacks


Lineup: Pretty punchless not too long ago, they've now got a couple of bashers in the middle of the order in RF Justin Upton and 3B Mark Reynolds. SS Stephen Drew and 2B Kelly Johnson both had disappointing seasons last year, but for Drew it was because of injury and Johnson suffered from bad BABIP luck, so we can expect a rebound from them. Miguel Montero brings a big bat to the catcher spot, and Adam LaRoche isn't a bad first baseman to have around. If CF Chris B. Young reverts back to his rookie year form, when he was close to 30-30, the outfield could be a real strength, as LFs Conor Jackson and Gerardo Parra should at least be around league average.

Rotation: When Brandon Webb is healthy, the D-Backs have a 1-2 that rivals any other in baseball. Unfortunately, only Dan Haren is healthy at this point, and the team has been saying that Webb may begin 2010 the way he ended 2009: on the DL. They'll be leaning heavily on Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy to live up to their respective potentials, as those two are slated for the 3-4 spots, and because there's very little behind them. Billy Buckner has a nice arm, but he's struggled with command and hittability despite a good K rate, and there's not much to expect from the likes of Kevin Mulvey or Rodrigo Lopez, who are also competing for the back end.

Bullpen: Chad Qualls has long been underrated as a good closer, but he's got the late game secured. Beyond him, though, there's trouble...Bobby Howry, Aaron Heilman, Blaine Boyer, Zack Kroenke, T.J. Beam et al are not the sort of guys you want handling major innings. There's some promise to be had in Juan Gutierrez and Clay Zavada, though, so it's not all bad news beyond the closer spot. Just...mostly bad news.

Overall: We think the Diamondbacks can be a real sleeper this year. They only won 70 games last year, but if Brandon Webb is healthy, .500 should be well within reach. If Justin Upton takes another step forward - which he's a good bet to do, at only 23 years of age - then the lineup should be good enough to put them in playoff contention in a competitive NL West.

Predicted Record: 83-79, 3rd Place

Beer: PBR. The Pabst brewery went up for sale in November, right around when the baseball season was ending. If someone shills out $300MM, it can be all theirs, and a classic (we use the word lightly around here) American brewery can rise again. That, of course, is an analog to Brandon Webb returning and helping restore a team that was down and out last season to greater heights this year. So drink up, hipster Arizonians.

The Glory Days of the Arizona Diamondbacks

We've been doing some research on baseball throughout the last two decades, and 1994 in particular. Part of this research has led to our compiling various and sundry stats and numbers for all teams in those last 20 years. Well, as we were looking through my (rather headache-inducing) spreadsheets, we were consistently shocked by one thing: the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Today, the Diamondbacks are sort of an afterthought. They've got three franchise-type players in Dan Haren, Brandon Webb (if he comes back healthy), and Justin Upton, but other than that, it's a fairly nameless collection of guys. We'd estimate that beyond those three, the only notable player on the team is Chris Young, and that's as much for his precipitous fall from a near-30/30 rookie year to being demoted to the minors last season as because of any skills. In terms of baseball news, the only truly notable thing we can recall happening to them is when catcher Chris Snyder suffered a rather horrific injury. And we say 'rather horrific' in a British-style understatement. You can read about it here, if you need a grisly reminder.  

But at about the turn of the decade, the D-backs were just the bee's knees. They came into the league as an expansion team in 1998, performed about as you'd expect from an expansion team (65-97; only two games better than their fellow expansioneers in Tampa). And then...well, then they sort of lit the world on fire. What changed? Time for a history lesson, folks!

In 1998, their best-hitting regular was Devon White, with a whopping .792 OPS. Catcher Kelly Stinnett actually lead the team in OPS+ with a 107 mark that just topped white's 106, but in about half the plate appearances. The young Tony Batista (which is a weird phrase to type) was a productive bench bat, punching up a .519 slugging percentage, and...well, that's about it. As for pitchers, only Andy Benes and Brian Anderson made more than 30 starts, though Benes was slightly above-average (106 ERA+) in his appearances. Omar Daal rather improbably had 23 starts for the team, and was actually the best hurler of the bunch, posting a 2.88 ERA. Gregg Olson was serviceable as the closer, but the bullpen was certainly nothing to write home about. Like we said, they were an expansion team.  

In 1999, we saw a revamped D-back squad. Damian Miller replaced Stinnett at catcher, Andy Fox and Jay Bell swapped positions up the middle, and Luis Gonzalez, Steve Finley, and Tony Womack replaced the former outfield of David Dellucci, Devon White, and Karim Garcia. Jay Bell, Luis Gonzalez, and Steve Finley hit like men possessed by the spirits of better hitters, and Tony Womack stole 72 bases at a sublime 85% clip. They brought in a man you may have heard of by the name of Randy Johnson to head the rotation, and he did so admirably, striking out 364 in 271 innings, and allowing an excellent 1.02 baserunners per inning. Omar Daal regressed a bit, but was still a good number 2, and the rest of the rotation ranged from barely below average (Andy Benes' 96 ERA+) to playoff-caliber starter (Todd Stottlemyre's 113 ERA+). The bullpen was excellent this year, with no member that threw more than 10 innings having an ERA+ less than Byung-Hyung Kim's 100.

To quantify this change, consider the following: they went from 65-97 to 100-62, a 35-win turnaround. They went from being outscored by 147 runs, which was third-worst in the league, to outscoring opponents by 232 runs, the best mark in the majors by almost 60 runs and a turnaround of 379 runs. They increased their weighted On-Base Average by 39 points, and decreased their QuikERA by 76 points. Essentially, they improved dramatically in all facets of the game. How did they do it? By orchestrating a downright masterful offseason. Take a look:

Free agent signees: Randy Johnson, Steve Finley, Byung-Hyung Kim, Erubiel Durazo, Todd Stottlemyre, Greg Colbrunn, and other useful parts.

Trades: Traded Karim Garcia to the Tigers for Luis Gonzalez (which is still one of the more lopsided trades ever executed). Traded Jason Boyd and Paul Weichard to the Pirates for thief-extraordinaire Tony Womack.

And as if building a 100-win core through free agency and trades wasn't enough, they even drafted future useful players (albeit for other organizations) Lyle Overbay and Chris Capuano. Essentially what they did was to lay out the template for a team looking to get better in a hurry by making the right free agent signings and smart trades, and everything panned out for them – probably better than even they expected, for that matter. And of course they would then trade for Curt Schilling in the middle of 2000, giving them 3 ½ years of ace-level pitching and a two-headed rotation monster that would see them lead the league in QERA in 2 straight years and bring home the 2001 World Series.

To put this all in more modern terms, let's revisit the story of the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays. As mentioned, they entered the league with the Diamondbacks, and then did a great job of being terrible their first year and somehow managing to not get any better for 10 years. Which is really sort of impressive, when you think about it. They made bad free agent signings, short-sighted trades, and did a terrible job of player development...but it all changed in 2008, when they went from winning 66 games the year before to a league-leading 97 victories. Now, that 31-game swing was – and is, I guess – the largest of the decade. But it's less than than Arizona's 35. The Rays improved greatly on defense, and went from being outscored by 103 runs to outscoring opponents by 212 – a shocking 315-run swing. But it's less than Arizona's 379. And the only place they really improved was on defense; their wOBA went up by one (1) point, and their QERA went down by one (1) point.

If anything, the Rays' remarkable 2008 season should serve to highlight what was an incredible year by their expansion counterparts – a year that seems to go largely unnoticed today.  Which is a real shame; the Diamondbacks of 1999 are perhaps the best single manifestation of the proverbial hope that springs eternal come March. Pirates fans should have this team's poster up on their walls; the Nationals should be worshiping at the altar of Joe Garagiola, Jr. The Diamondbacks came into the league a laughingstock, went home, tooled up, and beat up on everyone who'd mocked them the year before. And, really, isn't that what America is all about? You heard it hear first (and probably last): the 1999 Arizona Diamondbacks are America's Team!

Season in Haiku: Arizona Diamondbacks

Upton, Haren, yay!

Mark Reynolds struck out again.

Hello, AJ Hinch.

Trimester Checkup: NL West

Last one of these bad boys.  Enough prologue, let's get crackin'.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers, 46-24

2. San Francisco Giants, 37-31

3. Colorado Rockies, 36-33

4. San Diego Padres, 30-38

5. Arizona Diamondbacks, 29-41

Biggest Surprise: Every team in this division has a good candidate for this award, so let's go in order.  The Dodgers' Orlando Hudson has had a surprisingly strong year at .309/.382/.453; the second baseman is known mostly for his glove, but this year he's increased all his triple slash numbers to go along with his sturdy leather.  People knew Pablo Sandoval was good, but not this good, this fast; the dude's putting up a star-caliber .338/.386/.543 line.  He's not the most patient guy at the plate, but his ability to put the bat on the ball is outstanding.  Oh, and Barry Zito has been serving notice that he's not actually dead yet.  For the Rockies, we're going to give it to Jason Marquis.  He always seemed like the weak link on the Cubs rotations of the last two years and his 3-year/$21 million dollar deal looked incredibly foolish coming off a season where he'd posted a plus-6.00 ERA.  After two years of utter average-ness (100 ERA+) in the Windy City, he was traded to Colorado, where mediocre pitchers traditionally go to die.  And yet...Marquis has thrived.  He's posting a 123 ERA+, which would be a career best if not for 120 innings of 128 ERA+ ball he threw 8 years ago.  Adrian Gonzalez deserves mention for his work in San Diego.  He's been one of the most underrated players in the lig for the last few years, but OPSing 1.000+ while in one of the Majors' toughest hitting environments has drawn attention, as has his 23 HR. For the DBacks, Justin Upton has put up a performance commensurate with his status as one of the most talented prospects in recent history.  Only 21, he's flashed the power (near-1.000 OPS) and speed (9/11 SB) that makes him a 30/30 - or even 40/40 - threat.

Biggest Disappointment:  For all the excellent performances the division's seen thusfar,  there must be some pretty bad ones to explain the low quality of this fivesome.  And, indeed, there are!  In LA, Russell Martin's been shoddy, slugging .302 and, according to scouts, looking pained and slow on the basepaths and behind the plate.  Edgar Renteria was supposed to be rejuvenated by a return to the NL; if rejuvenation means .249/.312/.311, then we shudder to think what he might look like in the AL.  Well, actually, we might have a perfect example right in the division: Brian Giles has been the worst player in MLB so far, with a .191/.277/.271 line that makes him almost 2 full wins worse than your average minor leaguer.  Garrett Atkins was supposed to be a star at third base for the Rox; his numbers the last few seasons suggested that he was one of the better regulars at the position.  This year, however, he's tumbled to a .207/.288/.310 showing.  As for the Diamondbacks...well, anyone besides Dan Haren and Justin Upton is a good choice.  Brandon Webb's been hurt, but that in and of itself is a diappointment for one of the most consistent pitchers in the league.  Chris Young has done a lot to make us believe that his near-30/30 campaign two years ago was a fluke; .204/.272/.380 will do that to a promising young talent.  The offense as a whole has been horrendous all year; only Upton and Mark Reynolds save it from being epochally awful. 

Moves That Should Be Made

• The Dodgers can just sit pretty.  They've got the league's best run prevention unit, have one of its best sluggers coming back from suspension soon, and have a stacked lineup from top to bottom that'll only get better if Russell Martin bounces back.  There's a reason they have the best lineup in baseball.
• The Giants have no shot of catching the Dodgers.  Let's just be honest.  The pitching's been as expected with Lincecum, Cain, and, yes, Zito holding down the fort.  The lineup has been predictably bad, though Sandoval, Aaron Rowand, and Bengie Molina have been producing very well.  But, given GM Brian Sabean's past transgressions in the trade and free agent market, we'd rather they not do anything than to do something rash. They're not competitors, but there's no need to disband.  
• The Rockies went on an 11-game winning streak and still found themselves 10 games out of the division.  That says a lot about them and the teams they're chasing.  They'd be best served to trade Huston Street to a team with bullpen issues.  The Indians don't have much to give back, but they're in a winnable division and have a chance to upgrade their biggest weakness.  
• We don't even know where to start with the Padres.  They lost the chance to trade off their best asset in Jake Peavy since he's probably out for the year.  We suppose their next best trade chip is closer Heath Bell, who's been superb.  But, as with the Rockies, this team is not good enough to need an elite closer.  We say, trade him to the Phillies for Lou Marson.  The Pads need a catching prospect, and the Phils are going to need some help at the back end of their bullpen unless they believe Brad Lidge is totally healed up.  Call us skeptics, but we don't think all is well in Philly's pen. 
• Speaking of the WFC, if you're into Philly coverage, check out phoulballz.com.  Nice site, lots of good stuff on it.
• There's not much the DBacks can really get up to, trading-wise.  They're not about to trade guys like Dan Haren or Brandon Webb, Max Scherzer's too young/good, Upton's untouchable, and their other hitters/pitchers just aren't that good.  We suppose Jon Garland might fetch some organizational arms if a contender needs an innings eater at the back of their rotation, but that's really all we can offer.

Prognostication:

The Dodgers are the clear favorites here.  There's almost no shot that they lose their death grip on the division title.  The Giants have made strides this year, that's for sure, but until they get some lineup help, this is just not going to be a super-competitive team.  Great pitching only takes you so far.  The Rockies have the lineup pieces, and Dexter Fowler's going to be a stud, but beyond Ubaldo Jimenez, Aaron Cook, and, yes, Jason Marquis, there's not a lot going right for them pitching-wise.  Manny Corpas is getting elbow surgery, further thinning their pen that already lost one of its more talented members in Taylor Buchholz; they need to flip Street for some high-upside arms.  The Padres are just awful everywhere except at first base and left field.  Adrian Gonzalez is one of the best players in the division, and we still hold out faith for Chase Headley and Kyle Blanks, the newly called-up 6'8'' 280-pound manchild.  Unfortunately, when your only good players play first base, left field, and closer, you're a team in trouble.  The Diamondbacks are troubled by a similar lack of talent.  They expected their pitching triumvirate of Haren, Webb, and Scherzer to keep them in games, but no amount of great pitching can hold up this bad of an offense for a full season.  Add in Webb's injury, and you're talking about a disaster of a season.  That said, we think they still have more going for them than the Padres, so at least they won't finish in the cellar.

Final Standings:

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

2. San Francisco Giants

3. Colorado Rockies

4. Arizona Diamondbacks

5. San Diego Padres