Here's Looking At: Andruw Jones

It's been awhile since we've done a Here's Looking At (others), but with the news that Andruw Jones jacked a pair of dongers last night, including a walkoff job...in the bottom of the 9th...on a 3-2 count...with 2 outs...on his birthday...yeah, it was time to break it out again.

Jones, like many others, has been off to a hot start this year, hitting at a blazing .293/.408/.756 clip with 6 bombs  and even 3 stolen bases in his 41 PA thusfar. He'd been serving in a platoon at the DH spot with Mark Kotsay, which helps illustrate just how far the former 50-homer bat has fallen, but Kotsay has struggled from the outset of this season and Jones has (rightfully) been earning more playing time. But, of course, such a hot start is unsustainable; he's a career .258/.339/.490 hitter, and hasn't hit above .222 since 2006. He was above-average last season in Texas, though, flashing a good eye at the plate and decent pop (.323 OBP, .459 SLG) en route to a solid .338 wOBA (he's currently at .499). So how hard can we expect regression to hit Jones?

First, some important background. As Marc Hulet wrote yesterday, he looks like he left half of himself at home. Once a lithe, speedy guy, Jones was a 30-30 threat from 1998-2000, averaging 31 homers and 23 steals over those seasons. Oh, and he was 21 in 1998. No big deal. That combination of power, speed, and youth helped him earn$8.3MM in arbitration after that season, which was a record-high at the time. Aaand then went on to post a down year in 2001, mostly due to (what was presumably an) unlucky .269 BABIP. However, he still signed a 6-year, $75MM deal with the Braves after the season. A big part of that contract was on the strength of his defense; it was not out of the realm of possibility that he would go down as one of the best-fielding centerfielders of all time (he averaged nearly 2 wins a year with his glove alone from 2002-2007). And he made for a great story, too; this was a kid who got quick wrists by practicing his baseball swing with a sledgehammer, and who had his dad hit him fly balls on the dunes of his home in Curacao. Jones was the kind of kid you wanted on your team until he retired - and it seemed certain that he would do so with the Braves.

But that 2001 season that we glossed over...should not have been glossed over. Much was made of the fact that in 2001, Jones' conditioning became very poor; a common story was that, as a kid in the States with lots of money for the first time, his work ethic slipped and he spent most of his days eating McDonald's and playing video games. Remember that earlier picture of Jones? Well, he began to look more like this. And it would only get worse as the years went on. In the 2001 season, he stole only 11 bases and his strikeout rate skyrocketed from 15.2% to 22.7%. You may also recall how we referred to his .269 BABIP as 'presumably'  unlucky; as it turns out, plodding guys who strike out a lot and don't hit for a high average also don't have high BABIPs. Shocking, no? Jones' career BABIP is .276, which falls well short of the average hitters' BABIP that hovers around .300.

Jones has continued to head down that path for the rest of his career; he stole 8 bases in 2002 and never got higher than 6 in the following seasons. But he did make somewhat the best of it; his power flourished, and he never slugged lower than .488 from 2002-2006, In 2005, he had an MVP-caliber year with a .263/.347/.575 and 51 tater tots, including a June performance that is among the most torrid monthlong performances we've seen from a hitter.

And then the decline came quickly and mercilessly. In 2007, he struck out nearly a quarter of the time, while also walking less and seeing a sharp downturn in the power that had been 'prodigious' just two seasons ago. Yeah, he had a .242 BABIP...but in 2005, his best season, he had a .240 total. He began hitting fewer line drives (2% drop from 2006-2007) and more popups (3% increase) while also seeing fewer of his fly balls leave the yard (an astonishing 9% drop). All of that was a recipe for disaster, and the Braves did not see fit to retain his services after that season. The Dodgers did, though! To the tune of $18MM a year over two seasons.

Jones hit rock bottom in his first year with the Dodgers, posting a stunningly bad .234 wOBA. You want context? Well, had he qualified (he had only 238 PA), that would have been the single worst wOBA in the history of wOBA. Worse than Neifi Perez. Worse than Cesar Izturis. Worse than - heaven forbid - Yuniesky Betancourt. He looked utterly lost; the bat speed was gone, the patience was gone, the power was gone, and even his remarkable fielding instincts seemed to have left him. He was an $18MM shell of a player.

After a minor resurgence in Texas last season, here's where we find ourselves now. Jones remains a low BABIP, high power kind of guy, even if the power isn't what it was during the Braves years. He's currently posting a .273 BABIP, which is right in line with his career average, so while we could expect fewer balls in play to escape the fielders' gloves, the dropoff may not be significant - particularly given his obviously improved conditioning. He's striking out more often than usual, at a very high 32% clip, which could also shrink some in order to return toward his career average of 22.4%, so it's not like he'll start whiffing more often, either. He's hitting fewer line drives this season than last, and a lot more fly balls, and...ahhh, there's the culprit. A full 40% of his fly balls are leaving the yard, which is insanely high. He's also recorded a handful of infield hits, collecting them at an 11.1% rate that more than doubles his career 5% average.

So we can expect Jones' power to regress, as the average HR/FB rate is ~10-11%. He'll start recording fewer infield hits, which will drop the batting average, and the BABIP will drop as a result of more of those fly balls becoming outs. A combination of the Bill James, CHONE, Marcel, Fans, and ZiPS projections had Jones being a .221/.319/.422 hitter, which would put him right below a league average wOBA (.324 as compared to ~.330); the ZiPS projection for the rest of his season sees severe BABIP regression (down to .234) and has him hitting .220/.317/.450, for a .338 wOBA. Which, all things considered, is probably pretty good.

Now if you'll allow us to almost entirely disregard the unbiased, objective opinion of a projection system that weights Jones' performance against thousands of comparable players from throughout baseball history (an easier feat than it sounds like; just ask your local SABR-haters or an average member of the BBWAA), we think that Jones' improved conditioning and speed will allow him to to salvage some of that BABIP that he's got right now. He's not as quick and lean as he was in his younger days, but he also isn't playing the field anymore, at least until Ozzie Guillen gets some crazy ideas in his head and...oh...he's already played 8 games in the outfield. Well, never mind. But still. We know he still has some power; he showed it last season, and the projection systems liked him to have above-average deep sauce talent. Plus, he's playing in a weak division that features only a handful of good starting pitchers and some of the worst bullpens going, which should help. We're not saying he's going to be an All-Star or anything, but we think that at season's end, he'll be hitting around .245/.325/.460 to go along with some below-average-but-not-aggressively-so defense an excellent return on the $500,000 that the White Sox threw his way. Definitive judgment: passed. Godspeed, Andruw Jones. And happy belated birthday.


Chill Out, Dallas Braden

(post almost entirely stolen from The Blowtorch's 'Chill Out, Juwan Howard')

Chill out, Dallas Braden. You look like a pretty sweet bro. So why you gotta flip out on Alex Rodriguez like that? Dude was just trying to chill. Why don't you just go work on your 'stache and leave everyone well enough alone?

Chill out, Dallas Braden.


Jason Heyward

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Jason Heyward.


2010 Predictions Post

Because we just haven't gotten our fill of making incredibly inaccurate predictions, we've decided it's time to compile all those season previews and write out a proper predictions post. Or maybe we just wanted the chance to write that little bit of alliteration. SPRING BREAK!

Ahem. Onward and upward. Teams will be listed in their predicted order of divisional finish, and we'll throw out our projected record and beer choice for each. Think of it as a handy reference guide to all those other posts. Joke's on you if you read them all, we guess.

NL East:

1. Phillies: 91-71, Samuel Smith's Imperial Stout
2. Braves: 88-74, Yuengling
3. Marlins: 79-83, Abita Christmas Ale
4. Mets: 76-86, Dos Equis
5. Nationals: 69-93, Schlitz

NL Central:

1. Cardinals: 89-73, Stone Face Ale
2. Cubs: 84-78, Lumpy Dog Light Lager
3. Reds: 82-80, Abita Amber
4. Brewers: 77-85, Miller High Life
5. Astros: 71-91, Lone Star
6. Pirates: 69-93, Steel Reserve 211

NL West: 

1. Rockies: 93-69, Coors
2. Dodgers: 87-75, Anchor Summer Beer
3. Diamondbacks: 82-80, PBR (we already regret this pick as Brandon Webb is struggling to get healthy)
4. Giants: 82-80, Cuddly Panda Porter
5. Padres: 65-97, Blue Moon

NL Divisional Round: Rockies over Braves, Phillies over Cardinals
NL Championship: Rockies over Phillies

AL East:

1. Yankees: 95-67, Westvleteren 12
2. Rays: 94-68, Natural Ice
3. Red Sox: 93-69, Samuel Adams Boston Lager
4. Blue Jays: 78-84, Alexander Keith's IPA
5. Orioles: 70-92, Oak Aged Dark Lord Imperial Stout

AL Central: 

1. Twins: 87-75, Molson Canadian Lager
2. Tigers: 83-79, Heineken
2. White Sox: 83-79, Goose Island Honker's Ale
4. Indians: 68-94, Great Lakes Brewing Co's Blackout Stout
5. Royals: 62-100, Negra Modelo

AL West:

1. Mariners: 86-76, Fat Tire
2. Rangers: 85-77, Shiner Bock
2. Angels: 85-77, Stone's Arrogant Bastard Ale
4. A's: 77-85, Sam Adams Light

AL Divisional Round: Yankees over Mariners, Rays over Twins
AL Championship Series: Rays over Yankees

World Series: Rockies over Rays

As we were writing the Rockies preview, we got progressively more excited about their chances. They can pitch (a legit ace in Ubaldo Jimenez, the return of groundballer Aaron Cook, the possible return of former ace Jeff Francis, an improving Jorge de la Rosa, and a very strong bullpen even without Huston Street) and hit (there's a good chance that they can best league average at all 8 spots on the diamond, with a few possible star turns from guys like Troy Tulowitzki and the young outfielders) with anyone. We don't like the Yankees' lack of depth, but admit that they're still the clear favorite to take it all this year, and, again, have a like fetish for the Rays. So now you know exactly why we'll be wrong, instead of the less definitive 'oh, you were wrong.' Oh, and for fun, let's take a crack at the seasonal awards, so we can dig an even deeper prognosticative hole:

AL MVP: Evan Longoria (runners up: M. Teixeira, A. Rodriguez, K. Youkilis)
AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez (runners up: Z. Greinke, J. Lester, B. Anderson)
AL RoY: Brian Matusz (runners up: S. Sizemore, W. Davis)
AL Manager: Don Wakamatsu (runners up: J. Maddon, R. Gardenhire)

NL MVP: Albert Pujols (runners up: T. Tulowitzki, J. Werth, J. Upton)
NL Cy Young: T. Lincecum (runners up: D. Haren, R. Halladay, J. Johnson)
NL RoY: Jason Heyward (runners up: B. Posey, S. Strasburg)
NL Manager: Bobby Cox (runners up: T. LaRussa, C. Manuel)

Season Preview: Washington Nationals

Opening Day! Opening Day! Let's get the Nationals out the way!

But first, a sidenote: if Obama is throwing out the first pitch at the Nationals game tomorrow, then does that mean that today's Red Sox-Yankees affair isn't actually 'Opening Day?' Because can you really start the season the day before the Prez gets to toss out the first ball? Wait...don't answer that.

As we were.

Lineup: Ryan Zimmerman is the star here, and deservedly so; he is not only an elite hitter but can pick it with the best of 'em. Adam Dunn, on the other hand, has the second-best bat on the team, but negates much of that advantage with an abysmal glove. Josh Willingham - when healthy - has had his moments, and Nyjer Morgan took a huge step forward last season; his bat almost caught up to his glove. We doubt that he repeats that season, though, which leaves the Nationals with a pretty impotent outfield; Willie Harris is, for some reason, the starting right fielder. Back in the infield, the Nats aren't bad up the middle, with promising rookie Ian Desmond manning shortstop and aging vet Adam Kennedy holding down the keystone. We'd be more comfortable with this group if we could perfect time travel and get a more developed Desmond and a younger Kenned; without looking, we'd say Adam Kennedy hasn't posted a wRC+ over 100 since 2003. (Upon review: he did it last season. Whoops. But that was his first time since 2005. Moral victory. It's our blog, after all.) The corpse of Ivan Rodriguez will rely on the starting catcher's gear to hold his bones together, which is a bad strategy on several levels (particularly if literally true). Jesus Flores will be around in a year to wrest the job from Pudge II's cold, dead hands, but for now, the Nationals are paying a premium for a guy who is a lock to hit like a replacement player. So in retrospect...we guess they're not actually all that much better than you'd expect.

Rotation: The loss of Jordan Zimmermann and the refusal to start Strasburg in the minors (a move we support, mind you) make this group a  lot less promising than it would otherwise be. Jason Marquis continues to ride the gravy train of last season's 15 wins; he managed to parlay that into an All-Star appearance and a multiyear deal, which we guess is pretty impressive. And also soul-crushing, but still impressive. John Lannan, the team's Opening Day starter, managed a 3.89 ERA despite striking out, like, 3 batters per 9 (who needs fact checking?); if he can keep tossing 200 innings of ~4 ERA ball, then that has to be considered pretty good for this squad. Scott Olsen and Garrett Mock - particularly Mock - have great stuff, but haven't shown an ability to harness it effectively (or, in Olsen's case, to keep his head on straight and throw strikes at the same time). Neither has the upside they once did, but there's some promise yet to be found there. J.D. Martin is also listed on the official team depth chart, despite the fact that he was reassigned. Washington Nationals: on the ball!

Bullpen: Matt Capps was a great upside play; the Pirates released him after he struggled last season, and the Nats snapped him on a minor-league deal. Capps had been good prior to last season's breakdown, and with the variability of relief pitching, it's easily within reason that he'll rebound to have one of his better sesons as the closer here. Tyler Clippard, whom we confused with Chase Wright, is not actually the guy best known for serving up four consecutive tater tots to Red Sox batters, but is a former Yankee - and so is Brian Bruney. Which has to mean something, right? Well, no, but they are both pretty good pitchers. Jason Bergmann is in the 'pen, which meanst the team will have at least one of its '...nn' pitchers. Sean Burnett was pretty good last season, and we think that he, Bruney and Bergmann should start their own 'Killer B's.' Miguel Batista, auteur extraordinaire, was not very good last season. Nor is it likely he will be this season. But he could lobby to join the Killer B's, if they're nice. It'll be like when Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell were declining badly, but people kept calling them that.

Overall: Put simply, the Nationals aren't going to be very good this year. But there are signs of improvement, and talented prospects on the horizon. We're not saying they're going to compete any time soon in what is a pretty loaded NL East, but they will cease to be laughingstocks. Probably. Anyway, a core of Zimmerman, Strasburg, Zimmermann and Flores is not too shabby, and if the youngn's grow up quick and the vets get old slow, they could coast above .500 sometime.

Predicted Record: 69-93, 5th place NL East

Beer: Schlitz. Schlitz disappeared for a time, but came back to store shelves in 2008 to much fanfare despite being a pretty mediocre beer. The Nationals disappeared for a time, but came back to D.C. in 2005 to much fanfare despite being a pretty mediocre team. We just never learn.


Season Preview: Toronto Blue Jays

Real baseball starts tomorrow. Thought you should know. Today: the Toronto Blue Jays. Tomorrow, the world.

Lineup: There's not a lot of exciting talent here, but this is a fairly productive group of hitters. Adam Lind and Travis Snider are the excellently pedigreed hitters who should hit well enough to overcome their defensive shortcomings - they will spend time at LF and DH. Vernon Wells is hoping that his annoying trend of alternating good and bad seasons continues, since he was terrible last year - but with that contract weighing him down, it's gonna be tough to man CF effectively, or swing a bat. Jose Bautista, whom we did not know was still alive (that's why we write the previews!) is apparently going to be in right field, but he's 30 and has a career .729 OPS so don't get your hopes up, Nucks. The infield is cornered by Edwin Encarnacion and Lyle Overbay, both of whom are near-certainties to be league-average and also get hurt. Alex Gonzalez and Aaron Hill will be the double play combo, and while Gonzalez is no good, Hill had a monster season last year. If he can repeat that - and it's not very likely - then this team actually has a decent middle of the lineup, which will be exciting. John Buck, who improbably slugged .484 in 200 ABs last season will don the tools of ignorance, and hopefully play well enough to keep Jose Molina on the bench. Brett Wallace should be up before too long; he's a hitter in the Lind/Snider mold, albeit somewhat more athletic, and catcher Travis D'Arnaud will hopefully take over for their uninspiring catching duo at some point, though it may not be soon.

Rotation: Obviously, this group looked a lot better with Roy Halladay running out there every fifth day, but they're not an altogether bad unit. Shawn Marcum has struggled with injuries in his brief career, but he has excellent control and could be a real force if healthy. Ricky Romero, the slight lefty, has also...y'know, really, just about all Blue Jays pitchers have gotten hurt but have some real talent. So feel free to re-read the Marcum comment and apply it to Romero and Dustin McGowan. Brandon Morrow is a very intriguing prospect acquired from the Mariners, and he'll man the 4 spot. Morrow was effective as a reliever, but hasn't demonstrated much as a starter. The fifth spot will likely go to Marc Rzepczynski, whose name we still have trouble spelling even after writing more about him than probably anyone who doesn't write for Drunk Jays Fans, but Brandon Tallet and Brett Cecil will likely get some starts as well. Top prospect Kyle Drabek may be along to help things out eventually, but probably not for any substantial amount of time this season.

Bullpen: Jason Frasor is the closer here, and while he's somewhat uninspiring, he's a pretty good hurler, so they could do worse. Scott Downs and Jeremy Accardo are also good late-inning options. Jesse Carlson, besides looking absurd in this MLB.com picture, is a fairly mediocre option, but he's probably better than a guy like Shawn Camp, who isn't good for much besides getting groundballs. Oh, and Kevin Gregg is likely to see lots of innings, too...but he's terrible, so Jays fans had better hope that's not the case.

Overall: The Blue Jays are, unfortunately, the least inspiring squad in a division of heavyweights. Obviously, they're not competing with the unholy trinity of Sox/Yanks/Rays, but they're likely behind even Baltimore in the race for fourth-best team - not necessarily this season, but in terms of future prospects. There's some good young talent there now, and more coming, but they're still a lesser version of the O's - and that's even if they can finally keep their promising rotation healthy for once.

Predicted Record: 77-85, 4th place AL East

Beer: Alexander Keith's. Har dee har, choosing a Canadian beer for the only Canadian team in MLB. We're just phoning it in at this point. But like the Jays in their loaded division, Alexander Keith's tends to fall by the wayside when talking about Canadian brew; in the minds of the many, they are hardly worth noticing next to, say, Molson and Labatt. But there's definite quality in this Blue Jays squad - it's just that, like Keith's, you have to work a little to find it.


Season Preview: Texas Rangers

Just two days remain til Opening Day, and they are a Friday and Saturday, respectively. Which is pretty sweet. Anyway - lineup, pitchers, record, beer. It's not quite GTL, but it'll have to do. Up next: the Texas Rangers

Lineup: Let's start with the outfield. Julio Borbon is getting a chance to put his wheels to work as the full-time center fielder; best case is that he hits for average and gets on base well while stealing plenny bases. Flanking him  are Josh Hamilton, whose talent and injury history are well documented, and Nelson Cruz, who possesses a great power-speed combo. Cruz, though, will have to overcome what we're sure is an enormous mental hurdle in order to perform despite incessant ridicule from his teammates about his appearance in ESPN Magazine's Body issue. Oh, and Vlad Guerrero could see some time out here - though we'll have to, like, light a candle for him, since we're fairly sure that anything beyond DHing would straight up break him at this point. David Murphy is a decent backup, though. As for the infield, Michael Young posted his best season in years while transitioning to third base; his replacement, Elvis Andrus, wasn't much with the stick (though he's barely legal to drink), but was a 3-win player based on his strong defense. Andrus' double play partner is one of the best second basegentlemen in the league; Ian Kinsler has an above-average power/speed combo (we feel like this word gets thrown around a lot with the Rangers) for anyone, let alone someone manning the keystone. Chris Davis will get another shot at the first base job; he has mammoth power, but his contact skills are, to put it very charitably, lacking. Best case for him is a .260 average to accompany his 45 tater tots - and he's going to have to approach the best case in order to stave off Justin Smoak. Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden are a catching duo that has underwhelmed to this point, but Salty still has time to make good on his top prospect status, and Tegarden is a defensive whiz - which helps compensate for his below-average bat.

Rotation: This could either be a very strong or a very weak group. Yay firm predictions! Scott Feldman's peripherals suggest that he was far better than his poor ERA suggested, and Rich Harden could put together an enormous season if he stays healthy. Which we're pretty sure is verbatim what every single baseball scribe has written about him since he broke into the league. Ugh. And if the organization is serious about converting C.J. Wilson to the rotation - a decision we simply cannot support - then he'll be the number three starter. He could be decent, we suppose, but he's blocking the far more talented Neftali Feliz. Rounding out the rotation are Colby Lewis - Carson Cistulli's cause celebre - for whom we have high hopes and southpaw Matt Harrison, who could easily be a league average sort of gentleman. Plus with Feliz and assorted other young talent potentially ready to step in, there's plenty of depth for an already talented group.

Bullpen: Finishing games is what Frank Francisco does, and he does it pretty well. He'll be the closer this season, provided he manages to refrain from decking another fan with a thrown folding chair. Neftali Feliz, injustice though it may be, will likely be joining Francisco as a late-inning guy, and should be just as electric as he was last season. Darren Oliver was great for the Angels last season, but he's nearly twice as old as us and doesn't do as well against lefty hitters as you'd expect from a southpaw. Chris Ray is the former Baltimore closer, who had electric stuff prior to Tommy John surgery. Regaining his control has been a struggle, but he's a guy to keep your eye on. Darren O'Day and Dustin Nippert present little in the way of things to complain about; they're perfectly serviceable guys to chew up some innings here and there. Good group overall.

Overall: This is the year that most people predicted the Rangers would be in competition, though this squad surprised most people by being neck and neck with the Angels throughout most of 2009. They're improved, for sure, but the lineup doesn't have much depth and we have our concerns about the young pitchers holding up during what should be a season-long divisional dogfight. They're probably a better team than the Mariners overall - and certainly so when accounting for the wealth of young talent in the farm system - but for some reason we think the M's are juuust going to squeak out the divisional title.

Predicted Record: 85-77, 2nd place AL West

Beer: Shiner Bock. Shiner Bock is a beer that seems to aspire to the darkness of a true bock, but doesn't quite get there - it's far less full-bodied than most bocks, but is still delicious. Similarly, the Rangers are a team that has realistic championship aspirations, but they're not quite on the level of the Big Eastern Three. Both Shiner and the Rangers have come upon a winning formula - Shiner makes a tasty beer, and the Rangers develop phenomenal talent - but it's going to be another year before the Rangers are a serious World Series contender, and it'll take some recipe changes before Shiner Bock becomes a real Bock.


Season Preview: Tampa Bay Rays

3 days left. Hitters. Pitchers. Predicted Record. Beer. TAMPA BAY RAYS.

Lineup: There's talent everywhere, and if B.J. Upton and Dioner Navarro (or Kelly Shoppach steps up) this could be one of the best lineups in the league. Evan Longoria is the centerpiece and mans the hot corner with aplomb to boot. Across the diamond, Carlos Pena has enormous power and can take a walk with the best of them. He's not getting any younger, true, but he should have another couple of seasons left in him, particularly if his hands are healed from last season's broken fingers. The double play combo features Jason Bartlett, who's a passable gloveman and saw an obscene power surger last year (expect that to regress, but for him to remain above average for an SS) and either Ben Zobrist or Sean Rodriguez, depending on how the team feels about the latter's spring, we guess. Zobrist had a monster year last season, leading the AL in WAR, and while we don't expect him to repeat the feat, he's certainly an excellent hitter; seasons like his '09 don't happen on a pure fluke. Rodriguez, acquired from the Angels in the Scott Kazmir trade, posted 1.000+ OPS in his last two minor league seasons, but both came in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, so we don't expect him to flash the same power. He's got a good eye and can make contact, though. As for the catcher spot, Dioner Navarro seemed to have broken out in 2008, but was one of the worst players in the AL last season. He's got to remember how to work counts and not swing at dumb pitchers. Kelly Shoppach boasts big power, especially for a catcher, but has yet to prove himself in a full season's ABs. As for the outfield, Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton are superlative athletes, though only Crawford has had sustained success. Upton showed his potential in the '07 playoffs, but regressed horribly last season. He's at least a plus defender who can steal bases with the best of them, so hopefully the success of his younger brother Justin pushes him to figure it out for a full season. If Zobrist doesn't man second base, he'll be the right fielder; expect to see some combination of Matt Joyce and Gabe Kapler there otherwise. Joyce has some promise, but we'd like to see them give Desmond Jennings or Fernando Perez an extended run over there for as long as they've got Crawford and Upton in the other two spots.

Rotation: This is a wildly talented group. Matt Garza and James Shields are practically fixtures atop the rotation by now, and while they've not been dominant, the potential is there for them to be ace-level this season. And the trio of Jeff Niemann, David Price, and Wade Davis are all oozing with potential, particularly the latter two. Niemann should be good for a 4.00 FIP, which in the loaded AL East is nothing to sneeze at. People seem to have forgotten about Price after a disappointing go of it last season, and while he has a lot to prove w/r/t his control, the strikeout stuff is still there. Davis has been one of the team's top prospects for awhile now, and we're excited to see him get his shot. He doesn't have Price's proclivity for strikeouts, but commands his pitches better, and is effective at limiting home runs. The projection systems have him coming in around a 4.00 FIP also, which is particularly impressive for a rookie.

Bullpen: The addition of Rafael Soriano to the back end of the pen helps a great deal, as the Rays were conspicuously lacking in a true lockdown arm. Soriano should provide that, and he'll have a good setup corps in LHP J.P. Howell and RHPs Grant Balfour and Dan Wheeler. Balfour struggled with his control last season, and Howell was injured, but a return to form from both of them makes the late-inning pitching a legitimate strength. Andy Sonnanstine lost out on the competition for the fifth starter job, but should make for a capable long reliever - or at least trade bait. Randy Choate and Lance Cormier were effective last season, though neither is much of one for strike 3. The most interesting guy here is R.J. Swindle, the soft-tossing lefty sidewinder. He may feel like a gimmick, but ignore the fastball that couldn't even dream of hitting 90 on its most ambitious days and look at the fact that he posted a 2.21 ERA in 6 minor league seasons - while striking out a sparkling 9 per 9 and walking less than 2. GIVE THE MAN A CHANCE.

Overall: We picked the Rays to win the World Series last season and B.J. Upton to win the MVP. While the former was a convenient excuse to post a picture of Rachael Ray from her FHM shoot awhile ago, the latter was just poor predictive ability colored by our love for young talent hat could set the world on fire - a love that we still have, apparently, because everything about the Rays screams 'contender' to us. They can hit, they can pitch, they can field, they have one of the best front offices in the game, and the farm is bursting at the seams with young talent. If the Yankees sustain a few injuries, this division is, in our mind, theirs for the taking.

Predicted Record: 93-69, 2nd place AL East

Beer: Natural Ice. The plight of MLBers on a low salary has been made public by the Rays' Fernando Perez in a shocking and insightful brief documentary piece. So they can't afford to be spending lots of money on a beer becoming of their talent level - or a Carl Crawford becoming of their organization's talent level, if all the indications are correct. Natty Ice is cheap but strong enough to befit a team that can hit with the best of 'em but shells out cash like Jeffrey Loria after dropping his revenue sharing check on a new yacht.


Season Preview: St. Louis Cardinals

It occurred to us as we were working through this list in alphabetical order that while 'St. Louis' appears after 'Seattle,' the actual name of the team - i.e. 'Saint Louis' - does not. We apologize to offended Cards fans, and blame WikiAnswers for you.

ANYWAY, 4 days left til Opening Day. You know the drill by now: breakdowns of lineup, rotation, bullpen, and a predicted record plus beer so that Pittsburgh fans can drink in appropriate style. Let's hop to the St. Louis Cardinals.

Lineup: Albert Pujols is the best player in baseball and Matt Holliday is here to provide lineup protection, however false the notion may be. Or perhaps Pujols is Holliday's protection. Either way, two great hitters in the middle of the lineup here, and Colby Rasmus is, in our not-so-humble opinion, ready to break out this year. Beyond them, there're a few quality guys, but it's not exactly an imposing group of hitters the Cards will be rolling out. David Freese isn't a bad player, but he is a rookie, and his pedigree isn't great. Brendan Ryan is a great gloveman, but not so much of a hitter - you know, the proverbial all-glove, no-stick shortstop. Skip Schumaker had a bit of a rough transition to second base last season, but if the team intends on having him start there, they could certainly do worse - and Felipe Lopez is a wonderful insurance policy for all three of the above guys, though his glove may not play at short. Yadier Molina is by all accounts a marvelous defensive catcher, and he's started to come around some with the bat; hopefully for the Cardinals, he'll be more Bengie than Jose with the stick. Not that either are great, but still. And Ryan Ludwick, who broke out at age 29 and promptly faded back into mediocrity, has the right field job for better or worse.

Rotation: Like with the lineup, there's two stars that lead this group and somewhat useful talent that follows them. Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright were in the Cy Young conversation last season, and if Carpenter stays healthy, they could very well repeat the feat. Beyond them, Brad Penny will try to regain his fastball and perhaps benefit from Dave Duncan's tutelage as the #3 guy, and Kyle Lohse and Jaime Garcia bring up the rear. Neither of them are particularly good. Well, Garcia might become good, but he's a rookie, so our expectations are tempered.

Bullpen: Ryan Franklin was named the closer last year, and managed a 1.92 ERA...which sort of pales when compared to his 3.31 FIP and 4.27 xFIP. What we're saying is, he got lucky, and to expect the same kind of season from him is perhaps unwise. Kyle McClellan, who had been in the running for the 5th starter job, had a decent season last year, as did Blake Hawksworth, Trever Miller and lefty Dennys Reyes. So on the whole, this looks like a good unit - but a repeat of the success they all had is unlikely. Expect a good-not-great performance this season.

Overall: The Cardinals will go as far as their four stars take them. If Albert Pujols keeps up his march to Cooperstown, Matt Holliday regresses only slightly from last season, and Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter stay healthy, then they're a formidable squad - particularly if Colby Rasmus and - to a lesser extent - Yadier Molina take steps forward. They're not a great team, but in the weak NL Central, that doesn't matter - they're the clear favorites here.

Predicted Record: 86-76, 1st place NL Central

Beer: Stone Face Ale. Brewed by Anheuser-Busch (a St. Louis-based company, of course), it often gets lost in the sea of its Budweiser, Bud Light, Michelob, O'Doul's, and Natural Light/Ice (we kid) kin. But Anheuser-Busch has some quality, lesser-known brews. The analogy here? Colby Rasmus:Albert Pujols et al:: Stone Face:Budweiser (viz the King of Beers, not, y'know, actually good. Take the nickname as gospel here). So henceforth, Colby Rasmus shall be known as Stone Face. And we don't care if doesn't catch on anywhere else.

Season Preview: Seattle Mariners

Well we've got 4 days - yes we're constantly making mistakes with our timeline. We don't know why - left until Opening Day, which means it's season preview time. We'll be running it down team by team, with an added new wrinkle this time around: the beer of choice for fans of the team to enjoy whilst watching their team take the field! Nothing like that to help get you through a baseball season, especially if you're from Pittsburgh. Up next: the Seattle Mariners.

Lineup: The lineup tends to get glossed over when talking about the Mariners, partly because they seem to acquire position players with an emphasis on defensive ability and partly because the lineup isn't actually all that good. The additions of Chone Figgins and Milton Bradley should make the biggest difference, as there are now three legitimate hitters in the lineup - if Bradley stays healthy, that is. And the third, of course, is Ichiro, who gets far less credit than a man of his exploits and abilities is due. Browse U.S.S. Mariner some time for a better idea. Franklin 'Death to Flying Things' Gutierrez is the superlative glove in center field, and guys like Eric Byrnes and Ryan Langerhans (whom we hate irrationally) will share time with Bradley in left - though ideally Bradley will operate mostly from the DH position. Around the infield, Jose Lopez and Figgins have swapped positions, with Lopez handling hot corner duties and Figgins manning the keystone - a move we don't care for, particularly because Lopez's bat plays much better at second than at third, and his defense is marginal at best both places. Jack Wilson plays a great short, but he's not all that much of  a hitter - good enough for a shortstop, we suppose, though they shouldn't be counting on him for even 150 games anyway. Casey Kotchman rounds out the infield, and he seems to be one of the first basemen in the league with little in the way of power but a decent glove to make him an acceptable option, if not the ideal choice. Rob Johnson and Adam Moore are the catchers; Moore is a pretty good prospect, but whether he'll get the playing time remains to be seen (Johnson is currently listed first on the team's depth chart).

Rotation: The addition of Cliff Lee gives the M's a 1-2 to rival any in the league, as Clifton and Felix are both established aces at this point - albeit having taken greatly different ways of getting there. Lee is currently suffering from a strained oblique that is suffering to make him miss significant time, though, so they could be weakened in the first month of the season. If that's the case - especially combined with Erik Bedard's late return from surgery - then the Mariners are all of a sudden relying heavily on Ryan Rowland-Smith, whose Twitter account is a relative treat), Ian Snell, Doug Fister, and one or both of Luke French and Jason Vargas. Rowland-Smith isn't terrible (4.28 career FIP), but Snell, who can't strike people out anymore (or, for that matter, throw a strike; 5.15 BB/9 last season, 4.12 for the career) is, and Fister, beyond the obvious benefits of a giggle-worthy name and good control, isn't someone we would want in the regular rotation. French, who apparently learned how to strike people out in 2008 (relatively so; 7.93 K/9 isn't impressive in its own right, but it is a full two ticks up from his previous norms) doesn't project to be much better than a guy who hopes to post a sub-5.00 FIP, and Vargas, despite a good 73 innings with the Marlins in 2005, has been sub-replacement level since. So, yeah, there could be trouble if Lee and Bedard don't contribute substantially.

Bullpen: This unit is going to rely heavily on David Aardsma and Mark Lowe to repeat or build upon his banner 2009 season, because the guys sharing the 'pen with them aren't exactly 'reliable' (and yes we realize it's odd to call two guys with career-best seasons last year 'reliable.'). Brandon League's not bad, but if you'd like an irrelevant fun fact, his FIP and ERA haven't been closer than a run apart since 2006. Shawn Kelly and Sean ('the Pitching Tomato,' if only he were redheaded) White both are projected to hover around a 4.00 FIP. Garrett Olson, on the other hand, is terrible, and rookie Kanekoa Texeira (who needs to get together with Mark Teixeira and determine which way the name is to be spelled, for all of our benefit) is projected to do poorly this season despite a pretty fantastic minor league career. So it's not exactly an inspiring cast, but, hey, they're relievers. They could just as easily lead the league in FIP as be a complete bunch of flamers (I couldn't find the clip, but if you don't recognize the Arrested Development joke, then just go watch the whole series and get familiar).

Overall: The Mariners have perhaps somewhat inflated expectations given that they're the darlings of the sabersphere. There's a lot to like about this team, true, but they still don't have what you'd call a potent lineup, the rotation could easily end in injury-related shambles, and the bullpen doesn't have a lot of big arms that you'd feel comfortable calling on in tight games. But they can still field the ball, and unless some of their premier guys see one of those season-by-season fluctuations that can occur in defensive play, that should remain their calling card - and in spacious Safeco, that's not entirely a bad thing. 

Predicted Record: 86-76, 1st place AL West. But we're very uncomfortable with that choice.

Beer: Fat Tire. A recent hot favorite in the American market, people who buy Fat Tire have lofty expectations. And it is very good. But it's not the superlative brew that people expect all the time. With the holes in the Mariners team, it's possible that they end up like a big glass of Fat Tire - delightful but not a life changer.


Season Preview: San Francisco Giants

Well we've got 7 days ONE WEEK left until Opening Day, which means it's season preview time. We'll be running it down team by team, with an added new wrinkle this time around: the beer of choice for fans of the team to enjoy whilst watching their team take the field! Nothing like that to help get you through a baseball season, especially if you're from Pittsburgh. Up next: the San Francisco Giants.

Lineup: The lineup is, how do you say...weak. Pablo Sandoval is literally the only guy we feel comfortable saying will be good. For most of the rest, league average is a dream, not a possibility, and for some even that dream went by the wayside years ago. Edgar Renteria is probably one of the worst shortstops in the league at this point, and his double play partner Freddy Sanchez is a former batting title champ whose one saving grace is a decent batting average. Unfortunately, he's got no plate discipline or power to accompany it. Rounding out the infield is Aubrey Huff, who was once very good, but now...is not. And the outfield is similarly comme on dit disadvantaged in terms of talent; Mark DeRosa is a fine utility player, but not an everyday left fielder. Aaron Rowand cashed in big time on one great season, and is now firmly mired in mediocrity. And Nate Schierholtz once held promise, but he's not a starting MLB RF. Eugenio Velez and Fred Lewis back up that trio, though, so at least there's decent depth. We would argue for DeRosa to play second and have Velez or Lewis take over in left, but then we're not paid the big bucks to make such decisions. However, it gives us hope that we could one day be paid to do so to see that the team resigned Bengie Molina instead of letting Buster Posey do a fairly passable Matt Wieters impression. Dumb, dumb choice. 

Rotation: The rotation is the strongest part of this team, by far. 2-time defending Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum heads up this group, and he's certainly an ace in any sense of the word. Matt Cain is another very good young starter, and is a solid bet for a well-above average performance this year. Barry Zito has been disappointing considering the money thrown his way, but he  made a marked improvement last year, and if you don't consider the exorbitant amount of money they'll be paying him, he makes for a fine third starter. Jonathan Sanchez is one of our favorite candidates to break out this year; the lefty has filthy stuff and showed great promise in the second half of 2009. He could have Randy Johnson-esque strikeout numbers if all breaks right for him. And then Todd Wellemeyer and top prospect Madison Bumgarner - who's lost a considerable amount of sheen due to a serious and disquieting drop in velocity - will battle it out for the fifth spot, though we'd like to see Wellemeyer take the job and Bumgarner try to prove that he can work without elite velo in the minors. Even we can't believe that we just advocated choosing against the young gun. Let's move on.

Bullpen: There's decent pieces to be had here. Closer Brian Wilson has become quite proficient at striking fellas out, and Jeremy Affeldt is coming off a career year - albeit one he's unlikely to repeat. Brandon Medders should be a real asset as well. However, there's a lot of dross beyond them; Sergio Romo, Guillermo Mota, and Santiago Casilla are unlikely to contribute much, and any other spots will be a veritable revolving door of marginal talent. If and when Bumgarner gets the call, though, Wellemeyer will make a nice long man to help eat up some of these innings.

Overall: There's not a whole lot to like about the Giants, but they sure can pitch, and Pablo Sandoval is an exciting guy to have installed in the 3-hole. Unfortunately, they can't really hit or defend, and the bullpen depth is very weak. Having one major strength may have been enough to compete in the NL West just a scant few seasons ago, but not anymore. 

Predicted Record: 82-80, 4th place NL West

Beer: Cuddly Panda Porter. As you probably know, Pablo Sandoval's nickname is Kung Fu Panda. Never mind how Dreamworks feels about it; it's going to stick. Now, Cuddly Panda is sort of the opposite of Kung Fu Panda, though we would argue that any panda is fairly cuddly. But the Cuddly moniker sort of fits this team, who should be overall pretty punchless - except for the Panda in the middle of the lineup. 


Season Preview: San Diego Padres

Well we've got 8 days left until Opening Day, which means it's season preview time. We'll be running it down team by team, with an added new wrinkle this time around: the beer of choice for fans of the team to enjoy whilst watching their team take the field! Nothing like that to help get you through a baseball season, especially if you're from Pittsburgh. Up next: the San Diego Padres

Lineup: This group is on par with only the Royals in terms of how impotent they are. Adrian Gonzalez is the star here, but as an affordable guy with a big bat, he's a near-certainty to be traded at some point this season. Kyle Blanks, he of the 6'9'', 300-lb frame and 'fro to match, is an up-and-comer, though he'll have to exceed expectations with the bat in order to make up for his poor left field defense. Defense isn't a problem for the speed shortstop Everth Cabrera, who far exceeded expectations last season and, though he's due for regression, could be one of the best hitters on the team. Which isn't all that much of a compliment. Cabrera's double play parter is David Eckstein, and for the first time in the history of this site, we're being serious when we invoke his name. Chase Headley rounds out the infield, but his prospect star has tumbled off a cliff and he now looks like a below-average contributor. The same can be said of Scott Hairston, who had a promising 2008 with the Padres, but then struggled enormously last season and is now not assured of a job; he'll be competing with Tony Gwynn, Jr. for the CF spot. And really, the Pads might be better off bringing back Papa Gwynn for that job. Wil Venable will man the right field spot, and the best thing we can say about him is that he'll be better than Brian Giles was - though Giles was the worst player in the National League last season, so take that for what it's worth. Oh, and Yorvit Torrealba is catching. So it's neat that the Pads have not only the real David Eckstein, but also the catching version of the same. Commitment to Grit-ment, that!

Rotation: For all the possible upside in this group, they're sort of astoundingly boring. Jon Garland is the nominal ace, but he's never been anything more than a league-average innings eater at best. Chris Young, the softest-tossing 6'10'' guy ever, hasn't been the same since Albert Pujols rearranged his face with a line drive, but was a solid complement to since-departed ace Jake Peavy a few seasons ago. Kevin Correia seems to have settled down from his wild (~4 BB/9) days with the Giants, and shouldn't be much worse than a 4.30 FIP guy, so he's a solid choice for the third starter. And then it gets interesting, as prospects abound to fill out the back two rotation spots. Mat Latos is an ace in the making, and tossed a decent 50 innings in the bigs last year, but the Padres are considering starting him in AAA because guys like Tim Stauffer and Sean Gallagher are having decent Spring Trainings. Yes, seriously. Aren't we past using Spring Training as a meaningful indicator of peoples' performance? Beyond that trio, there's also prospects Aaron Poreda, Clayton Richard, and Wade LeBlanc to consider. So there's a lot of depth here, but most of it is either established as fringe-MLB quality or probably a bit too raw to really make an impression this season.

Bullpen: Heath Bell is a great end-game option, which means that he should probably be traded along with Adrian Gonzalez and bring back a decent piece or two. Mike Adams was superb last season, posting a 0.45 ERA and a good strikeout rate, so we'd imagine he's next in line for Bell's job. Luke Gregorson, Edward Mujica, and Adam Russell all posted 9+ K rates, though (except for Gregorson) in small sample sizes...which is always the case with relievers anyway. Joe Thatcher, like the rest, was shockingly effective  at preventing earned runs and missing bats. Basically, there's a lot more quality here than we'd expect from a team like the Padres. 

Overall: It's good to have at least one team strength, but if you have to pick, you don't want it to be the bullpen. Especially when your offense is as bad as  the one San Diego will be running out there - a unit that will be even further hampered by Petco Park's spacious dimensions (so if you're wondering, no, it's not possible to preview the Padres without mentioning Petco). The starting pitching could be around league average if the prospects pan out and the old guys don't pitch themselves into mediocrity, so as long as they can eke out some runs, they could offer the 'pen a few leads to protect here and there. Like the A's, they're going to have to win a lot of 2-1 games.

Predicted Record: 65-97, 5th place NL West

Beer: Blue Moon. A pleasant witbier with enough character to complement Petco's famous fish tacos. Throw an orange in it and you've got a wheaty beer with enough sweetness to make it ideal for SoCal baseball. 

Season Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates

Well we've got 9 days left until Opening Day, which means it's season preview time. We'll be running it down team by team, with an added new wrinkle this time around: the beer of choice for fans of the team to enjoy whilst watching their team take the field! Nothing like that to help get you through a baseball season, especially if you're from Pittsburgh. Speaking of....ladies and gentlemen, your Pittsburgh Pirates.

Lineup: There's modest promise here, and it all stems from Andrew McCutchen. The young CF is a star in the making, and anchors a lineup that's filled out with a collection of fallen prospects and league-average players. Of the former group, Jeff Clement, Andy LaRoche and Lastings Milledge will fill in the infield corners and left field - and that's not a bad thing. All three are still coming into their own, just reaching the age where they could record career-best seasons. Then again...they probably won't. As for the rest, Ryan Doumit is a solid catcher, Aki Iwamura is league average personified, and Garrett Jones, despite a mammoth season next year, figures to be nothing special. And at shortstop, the Pirates don't really have a viable option; it's between Ronny Cedeno and Bobby Crosby, neither of whom are going to really even approach league average. So it's not a bad group overall, and if the young'ns take a step forward, they could actually be  a bit intriguing.

Rotation: Unfortunately, the pitching won't help make up for it. Zach Duke (the leader in games started for the Pirates in this decade, shockingly) is your 'ace,' but he's...well, he's not so good. Paul Maholm is a starter in the same mold, but has at least some bright spots...though those have been offset by an inability to strike people out. Ross Ohlendorf is tall and from Princeton....but isn't a guy you want as your 3 starter. Kevin Hart...Daniel 'The Lesser' McCutchen (for his sake, we kind of hope that one doesn't catch on)...Charlie Morton....yeah, the back end doesn't look a whole lot better. Morton at least has some promise, and could well be a solid back-end guy, but when that's the highest praise that you can offer a starter in this group, then that's not saying too much.

Bullpen: They let Matt Capps depart, which was a wise move financially, but a poor move in terms of present talent. Octavio Dotel is not a bad late-game option, but with his health history, he's not someone you want to rely on as your closer. Brendan Donnelly was good in limited action lats season, but he's not been truly effective for a couple of years now. D.J. Carrasco did yeoman's work, tossing 92 innings of pretty decent ball, and should be in line for a couple spot starts and will be an effective long reliever. Beyond that, there's a lot of castoffs fighting for a few spots. Expect to see a lot of different people coming out of the Pirate 'pen this season, but don't expect greatness. Neal Cotts is here, though, which is kind of neat.

Overall: They're definitely making strides, as there is some legitimate promise here. However, they're still the Pirates, and they're still terrible. They'll benefit somewhat from a weak division, but this team is simply not set up to win - not now, and not in the near future. GM Neal Huntington is doing the best he can with limited options, but there simply isn't much to build around unless the former prospects find a mid-career surge. With limited options in the minor leagues, and no real trade bait, the Pirates have a big hill to climb. Still.

Predicted Record: 66-96, 6th place NL Central

Beer: Steel Reserve 211. This was one of the first matches we made when considering doing the beer previews, though to be honest, at the time we thought it was called Steel City Reserve. So basically this whole series was founded on a case of mistaken identity. But whatever; Steel Reserve, despite being brewed in California (we thought Pittsburgh - Steel City), is a cheap beer that is meant to make you incapable of even menial tasks. The Pittsburgh Pirates have a low salary and are incapable of the menial task of winning baseball games. QED.


Season Preview: Philadelphia Phillies

Well we've got 10 (we just realized that we've been counting down til April 5th. Because we're nothing if not attentive.) days left until Opening Day, which means it's season preview time. We'll be running it down team by team, with an added new wrinkle this time around: the beer of choice for fans of the team to enjoy whilst watching their team take the field! Nothing like that to help get you through a baseball season, especially if you're from Pittsburgh. Up next: the Philadelphia Phillies.

Lineup: The Phillies can hit the ball. That's this lineup summed up very briefly. Chase Utley is one of the best players in baseball, Ryan Howard is the premier power bat in the league, and Jayson Werth  has been one of the most productive outfielders in the league in the past few years (no word how his new beard will affect his play). Jimmy Rollins used to be in the this discussion before his abysmal 2009 season, but it's not out of the question to think that he will rebound this year. Shane Victorino has made his case to be included in the group of elite hitters from this lineup, and should continue to improve. Beyond that group, Raul Ibanez is a decent enough hitter for left field, and you could do worse than to have Placido Polanco at third. Carlos Ruiz - CHOOCH! - will be the backstop for this squad, and while he's not much with the bat, he's shown quite a bit of flair with the glove. Basically, this team will get their runs - as long as their key contributors stay healthy. Because like the Yankees, there is not a lot of depth to be had here.

Rotation: They did improve by swapping Cliff Lee for  Roy Halladay (ignoring all the other parts of the deal), but we're not so sure how good this group is going to be. Halladay and Hamels are a legitimate star-caliber 1/2, but to say that we have doubts about Joe Blanton, J.A. Happ, Kyle Kendrick, and Jamie Moyer is to put it lightly. Blanton showed an uptick in his strikeout rate recently, but we're not really buying it as he benefited from luck last season. Speaking of luck, Happ was extraordinarily lucky in 2009, and will be lucky to post a sub-4.50 FIP this season. Kendrick flat out doesn't have the skills to be in an MLB rotation, and Moyer, while he does have that veteran presence journalists love to write about, is in the same boat. 

Bullpen: This is something of a weak spot. Brad Lidge - he of the perfect season in 2008 (saves-wise, which take from that what you will) - was historically awful last season, and has a lot to prove in 2010. Ryan Madson was often Lidge's relief (which never bodes well when you're talking about, y'know, a relief corps), but he's not exactly the kind of pitcher you entrust with significant amounts of high leverage appearances. But then the same could be said about Danys Baez, J.C. Romero, Chad Durbin, Mike Zagurski, David Herndon and Antonio Bastardo. And in case you're wondering, no, that does not bode well for the Phitins.

Overall: The Phils can hit the cover off the ball, and their 1/2 starters are hard to beat. Beyond that, though, you're talking about a very flawed squad. A lot is going to have to go right for them to be the dominant team that we've seen in recent years, but even without that, they should be talented enough to win the division. If, however, either Halladay or Hamels (and we simply cannot wait for the silly double-H merchandise to be printed up) falters or gets injured, then this team could be in some real trouble.

Predicted Record: 91-71, 1st place NL East

Beer: Samuel Smith's Imperial Stout. A potent lineup, the Phillies are equal to the 9% ABV that we see from (Slammin') Sammy Smith's powerful brew. Plus, Smith's is one of, if not the, best Imperial Stout out there - and the same can be said of the Phillies. It's not an inspired choice, to be sure, but hopefully it's heavy enough to keep Philly fans' mouths shut so they can appreciate - instead of complain about - a great team.


Season Preview: Oakland Athletics

Well we've got 11 days left until Opening Day, which means it's season preview time. We'll be running it down team by team, with an added new wrinkle this time around: the beer of choice for fans of the team to enjoy whilst watching their team take the field! Nothing like that to help get you through a baseball season, especially if you're from Pittsburgh. Up next: the Oakland Athletics.

Lineup: Well, at least we're getting the worst part of this team out of the way. Put simply, there are not likely to be more than two or three above-average hitters on this team. Not star-level, just...above-average. Jack Cust, one of the patron saints of the Three True Outcomes, will lead the charge...if he can prove that last season's dropoff was an isolated event. Daric Barton retains some promise as the team's first baseman, but he's done little in his major league career to date. Kurt Suzuki is a very solid catcher, but he's still being judged relative to other catchers' hitting ability (viz he's not likely to perform at the league average for all hitters). Kevin Kouzmanoff is a fallen prospect, who escaped the frying pan of Petco Park only to find himself in the fiery Oakland Coliseum. We don't have high hopes for him, is what we're saying. Mark Ellis was a very good second baseman a few seasons ago, but he can't stay healthy, and isn't all that productive anymore. Rajai Davis, Ryan Sweeney, and Coco Crisp aren't great shakes with the bat (Davis being a possible exception; he also has extraordinary speed), but they are excellent defenders, which will help this team compete the only way they'll be able to: preventing runs. Before we move on, though, pour one out for Zombie Eric Chavez. Yes, he's still on this team. 

Rotation: There's some definite promise to be had here, which is good, because like we said, this team is only going to win if they can prevent runs. Free agent acquisition and nominal ace Ben Sheets has had what could charitably be called a horrendous Spring Training, even failing to retire a single batter in one outing, but if he can stay healthy (he can't) then we still have faith in his impeccable control and strikeout stuff. But the pitcher we're most excited about on this team is Brett Anderson. Last season, he posted a 3.69 FIP and 3:1 K:BB ratio...as a rookie. He might be the best pitcher on this team already. Dallas Braden found success as well, albeit in 22 starts, and so should give this team at least three productive starters. Trevor Cahill, who like Anderson came into last season with an excellent pedigree, but struggled in his debut year, with a pedestrian 4.63 K/9 and a 5.33 FIP. He will have to improve if he's going to help this team. Justin Duchscherer has the inside track for the fifth spot here, and as a guy who led the league in ERA just a couple seasons ago, has some promise if he can stay healthy (he can't, either). Josh Outman, Gio Gonzalez, and Vin Mazzaro make this one of the deeper pitching staffs in baseball, so they shouldn't have too much of a dropoff if (when) Sheets and Duchscherer miss some time. 

Bullpen: Despite the high marks that the rotation earns, the bullpen is even better. Andrew Bailey, last season's RoY, was superb, posting a near-10 K's per 9 to go along with a 2.56 FIP. Brad Ziegler is a groundballing fiend who earned notoriety for tossing 38 consecutive innings to begin his Oakland career, and Michael Wuertz has a flat-out unhittable slider that led him to strike out 12 per 9. Those three form one of, if not the most, formidable back ends of a 'pen that you'll see anywhere. Plus, there's Joey Devine, who was coming into his own before missing last season with Tommy John surgery. This is a group that can really shorten up games. 

Overall: If the A's are going to compete in a loaded AL West, they're going to have to win a lot of 2-1 games. Fortunately, they've got the pitching - and the offense! - to do just that. Health will be a big question mark here, though, as Sheets and Duchscherer are just as likely to miss the entire season as they are to post sub-3.00 ERAs. The A's do have depth all over the place and will play some excellent defense, so there's contingencies in place, but we see this team ending up like the Mariners last year - posting a big enough turnaround to get noticed, but not enough to sneak into the playoffs. They'll pitch and defend with the best of them, but they just don't have the hitters yet.

Predicted Record: 76-86, 4th place AL West

Beer: Sam Adams Light. We hate to dip back into the Sam Adams catalog, but as light beers go, it's very flavorful. Plus, it's 4% ABV, a perfect analog for a team that'll be happy to score 4 runs per game. Light impact, but decidedly enjoyable (see e.g. the young pitchers and Rajai Davis): that sounds like the A's to us. 


Season Preview: New York Yankees

Well we've got 12 days left until Opening Day, which means it's season preview time. We'll be running it down team by team, with an added new wrinkle this time around: the beer of choice for fans of the team to enjoy whilst watching their team take the field! Nothing like that to help get you through a baseball season, especially if you're from Pittsburgh. Up next: the New York Yankees.

Lineup: Stacked. Future HOFers Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter make up the most famous left side of an infield in baseball, Mark Teixeira is a switch-hitting force to be reckoned with, Robinson Cano is one of the better second basemen going, and Jorge Posada has an outstanding bat for a catcher. In the outfield, Curtis Granderson figures to showcase excellent defense and hope to bounce back from a disappointing 2009 season - and Yankee Stadium's short porch in right should help that happen. He is flanked by the speedy Brett Gardner, whose defense figures to be well above average in left field, and Nick Swisher, whose eye at the plate and modest power makes him a suitable option. Nick Johnson will serve as the DH, and if that limited role helps him turn in a healthy season, then he should bring a near-.400 OBP to the bottom of this lineup. Basically, there are no real holes 1-9. The lineup was the best in baseball last season, and the addition of Granderson should help cover any regression from guys like Rodriguez, Jeter, and Posada. A bit of caution, though: this team is paper-thin. There is no depth to be had anywhere, and should one of the regulars suffer a serious injury, they'll likely have to make a midseason acquisition. 

Rotation: Stacked. CC Sabathia heads up a rotation that also includes formidable arms in A.J. Burnett (who finally stayed healthy in a non-contract year) and Javier Vazquez (who had a case for the NL Cy Young last season). The ageless Andy Pettitte is back for another run, and is a fairly safe bet to provide league average production, as he has done over and over again throughout his career. The 5th spot is up for grabs right now, but for our money, the job should go to Phil Hughes. Joba Chamberlain, for all the attention afforded him, has not actually been a very good pitcher, and Hughes has a significant amount of promise - certainly more than Chamberlain. So 1-5, they should be about as good as anyone else. But again: No. Depth. There's no other starter on the roster whom you'd like to give the ball to for more than a spot start or two.

Bullpen: Aaaand...stacked. 3/3! Mariano Rivera is the best reliever of the saves era, and regardless of which of Hughes and Chamberlain the Yanks decide to use in a setup capacity, they'll have another lockdown option in the 8th (Chamberlain has been significantly better in relief than while starting). David Robertson is one of the best strikeout relievers going, and Alfredo Aceves, while not exactly a relief ace, is pretty solid. Oh, and Damaso Marte is left-handed. Sergio Mitre, Boone Logan, and Mark Melancoan suck, though. 

Overall: For a juggernaut team - which they are, make no mistake about it - the Yankees are ill-equipped to handle a major injury. The punchless Ramiro Pena backs up 2nd and 3rd base as well as shortstop, and starting Nicks Johnson and Swisher back up 1st. Francisco Cervelli is the backup catcher, and Randy Winn is the fourth outfielder. Which is to say: they've got nobody good on the bench. And their best hope for a spot starter, since releasing Chad Gaudin, is Sergio Mitre. Who is awful. They can overcome these problems for awhile with the sheer amount of talent they have, but in the loaded AL East, they can't afford to throw too many PAs or IP at replacement level players.

Predicted Record: 94-68, 1st place AL East

Beer: Westvleteren 12. Any of the three will do, but 12 is the most expensive and most potent. Plus, it's widely regarded as one of, if not the, best beers in the world and carries no label - like the Yankees having no name on the back of the jerseys. The fun part about Westvleteren, as quoted from Wikipedia, is:

"Buyers were originally limited to ten 24-bottle crates of the beer per car, but as the beer increased in popularity, this was first reduced to five, then to two. For the Westvleteren 12 in 2009, it was limited to one case. When making an order now, the type and quantity of beer for sale are revealed. Sales are limited to one order a month per person per license plate and phone number. Also, the beer must be reserved on their "beerphone" (+32 (0)70 21 00 45) beforehand. The monks will never sell you any beer if you just drive up to the abbey hoping to get some. The reason for this is to eliminate commercial reselling, and hence give all visitors a chance to buy some."

That's right - it only comes in small quantities. Just like the Yankee players, there's a limited amount of goodness to be had. Perfect fit!


Season Preview: New York Mets

Well we've got 13 days left until Opening Day, which means it's season preview time. We'll be running it down team by team, with an added new wrinkle this time around: the beer of choice for fans of the team to enjoy whilst watching their team take the field! Nothing like that to help get you through a baseball season, especially if you're from Pittsburgh. Up next: the New York Mets.

Lineup: Without Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes, who will miss significant time in the beginning of the season, there are three worthwhile hitters on this team: David Wright, Jason Bay, and Angel Pagan. And Pagan is somewhat of a stretch. Yeah, Jeff Francoeur was good for half a season after the Braves traded him here, but the guy is dragging around a .311 career OBP. So that bodes well. Luis Castillo was washed up seasons ago, and Alex Cora isn't washed up only because he was never good to begin with. Daniel Murphy might be a serviceable hitter, but not as a first baseman,  and the catching group is a mess. They have six potential backstops right now, and show no plans to play the only one with any promise (Josh Thole). Plus, there's no guarantee that David Wright returns to form or that Carlos Beltran can rebound from his injury, and they have no depth in the event that their team turns into a cavalcade of wounded like it did last season. 

Rotation: Johan Santana and then...nothing good. A pair of rose-colored glasses might tell you that John Maine is a capable starter, but he's shown little ability to stay healthy and isn't exactly a top-of-the-rotation guy when he is. He can be league average, though, which makes him better than Mike Pelfrey and Oliver Perez, to say nothing of Fernando Nieve, Jon Niese, or Nelson Figueroa. There's precious little to like here, and the worst part is that this was the case last season, too - and management did nothing to address the issue. Not that we're necessarily complaining, because it is going to be tons of fun watching them getting blown out of games.

Bullpen: Francisco Rodriguez was supposed to be the late-game savior after bullpen woes submarined the team in 2007 and 2008. He was not. He's been trending downward for years now, but the Mets were blinded by the saves record and are locked in to paying him big money the next two seasons in order to be a fairly average reliever. Good times! But let's be somewhat kind to GM Omar Minaya: Kiko Calero was a marvelous addition, particularly on a minor league deal. If he can avoid injury - which might as well be called the Calero Caveat* - then he might well be the best reliever on this team. Though that's not necessarily the most ringing endorsement...how much trust would you have in a relief corps that prominently features rookie Japanese import Ryota Igarashi, Bobby Parnell, Pedro Feliciano's corpse, Sean Green, and Elmer Dessens? Kelvim Escobar would've been a good addition as well, but he's already dealing with shoulder soreness and in no way should be counted on for significant innings this season.

*Kiko Kaveat? Calerveat? Kikoveat? The Notorious K.C.C.?

Overall: The Mets were hamstrung last season by a plethora of injuries, and stumbled to a 70-win season that was, to say the least, unforeseen. The nice thing about last season - and the minor upgrades that were made to a deeply flawed team - is that people won't be surprised when the Mets fall flat this year.

Predicted Record: 74-88, 4th place NL East

Beer: Dos Equis. Because Omar Minaya might be the most interesting GM in the world. Nothing is impossible when Mr. Minaya is in charge. Be in the top 5 in payroll, and have a right fielder with a .311 OBP? Sure! Hand out utterly inexplicable deals to Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez? Why not! Sign up every middling player who's ever tried on catcher's gear? Absolutely! Alienate one of the team's best players to the point where he gets major surgery without the team's consent? You bet! Nothing is out of the realm of possibility with this guy. And his willful ignorance of things like advanced metrics and the finer points of, y'know, assembling a pitching staff, will drive Mets fans to drink plenty.  


Season Preview: Minnesota Twins

Well we've got 14 days left until Opening Day, which means it's season preview time. We'll be running it down team by team, with an added new wrinkle this time around: the beer of choice for fans of the team to enjoy whilst watching their team take the field! Nothing like that to help get you through a baseball season, especially if you're from Pittsburgh. Up next: the Minnesota Twins.

Lineup: Given the news from today, this is a pretty opportune time to be writing about the Twins' lineup. Joe Mauer, the newest Twinkie to sign a big extension, is the foundation of a pretty solid group that also includes former MVP (however undeserved be the honor) and current Canadian Justin Morneau and a troika of solid hitters in CF Denard Span, RF Michael Cuddyer, and DH Jason Kubel. The team looks to be much improved up the middle by virtue of a couple of solid free agent acquisitions in SS J.J. Hardy and 2B Orlando Hudson, who should both be at least average offensively and provide some solid glovework, and while Brendan Harris isn't exactly a good option at the hot corner, he should be fairly adequate. LF Delmon Young is the big question mark here; the talented prospect has been a dud so far, but is only 24 and so still has a chance to make good on the hype. Unfortunately for his development, he's out of minor league options, which means that he's been learning pitch recognition and plate discipline on the fly at the major league level; if he doesn't take steps forward in those departments this year, then he's just going to be a warm body with a big arm. And that does not a good left fielder make.

Rotation: Francisco Liriano has looked extremely sharp in winter ball and Spring Training, which means that he could potentially give this group the ace that it needs. Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn and Carl Pavano aren't exactly a killer group - they're each cast in the 3rd/4th starter mold, as none have a propensity for strikeouts (Liriano's 8.03 K/9 led the team) and get by almost entirely on good control (Baker's 2.16 BB/9 was the highest among the projected group of starters) - but they should be able to keep this team hovering around average, which with their lineup and division should be enough to keep them in contention all season. This portion of the preview was so short in large part because we contend that Baker, Slowey and Blackburn (besides sounding like a law firm) are all entirely indistinguishable from one another and may in fact be the same person. They even look alike (particularly Blackburn and Baker). 

Bullpen: Joe Nathan's pending Tommy John surgery isn't a death blow for this group, but it certainly complicates things. The team hasn't announced an official closer - which for our sanity they'd best just go with a committee, like teams should - but the favorites seem to be Jon Rauch (not because he's good, but because he's been A Closer), Matt Guerrier (who was good last season, but we don't think it's sustainable success; see e.g. 5.5 K/9 and a home run rate over 1), and Pat Neshek (who is good, but is probably seen as too goofy to actually win the job; see e.g. his blog and delivery).  Clay Condrey and Jose Mijares both had success last season, so if they can repeat their 2009 seasons and Guerrier doesn't blow up (far from a sure thing) then hopefully they can keep Jesse Crain away from the mound often enough to not blow too many leads. Overall, though, a much less talented group without Joe Nathan. That's the kind of incisive analysis that makes us the 18,488,136th most popular site on the internet. Pop champagne!

Overall: The pitching worries us, particularly if Francisco Liriano's possible return to form is a mirage. The Twins were below average in FIP last season, and need to see some improvement if they want to be strong contenders - particularly with a weakened bullpen. However, the lineup should be good enough to carry this team to a division title. 

Predicted Record: 87-75, 1st place AL Central

Beer: Molson Canadian Lager. As the name very subtly implies, this is a Canadian brew, which is obviously inspired by the presence of Justin Morneau. But there are other reasons. Molson partnered with Coors in 2005 to create Molson Coors, which is the fifth-largest beer company in the world and lending an American tinge to the beer (they had to cease their Joe Canada commercials). The Twins analog for this is that they have now tabbed All-American Joe Mauer to be its drink-stirring straw rather than Morneau. Also, Labatt, another Canadian brewery, joined InBev which is the largest beer company in the world. So despite their efforts to keep up by throwing their hats in with an international conglomerate - see e.g. giving Mauer $184MM - they still aren't in the league of the big boys (the Yankees/Red Sox). Plus it's more expensive than it probably should be, which is what fans at domeless Target Field will be thinking about their ticket prices when they're being assaulted by the infamous Minnesota mosquitoes during summer games. 


Season Preview: Milwaukee Brewers

Well we've got 15 days left until Opening Day, which means it's season preview time. We'll be running it down team by team, with an added new wrinkle this time around: the beer of choice for fans of the team to enjoy whilst watching their team take the field! Nothing like that to help get you through a baseball season, especially if you're from Pittsburgh. Up next: the Milwaukee Brewers

Lineup: This should be the best lineup in the division. Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder make this merry-go-round move, but the speedy Carlos Gomez and (we think) ready to (finally!) break out Rickie Weeks will be superb complementary pieces. Corey Hart had a down year last season, but if he makes one simple fix (swing more! His in-the-strike-zone swing percentage dipped 8% from 2008-2009 and his overall swing percentage dipped from 54% to 46%) then he should rebound to his above-average past. Casey McGehee, despite the goofy spelling of his last name, was a good contributor last season, and should be a serviceable stopgap for prospect Mat Gamel. And speaking of prospects, SS Alcides Escobar is a wizard with the glove and should be able to hit for some decent average this season. Gregg Zaun is the only distinct negative here, but he's a catcher, and there aren't a lot of teams who can count on having a reliable hitter behind the dish, so that doesn't concern us too much.

Rotation: What does concern us is the pitching. Yovani Gallardo is a stud, and the unquestioned ace of what is, unfortunately, an extremely mediocre staff. Randy Wolf was a nice free agent signing, but right now, he looks like their second-best starter...and that's not a recipe for contention. Doug Davis and Jeff Suppan (whom we always confuse, despite their being altogether dissimilar save for a distinct tendency towards 'average') will man the 3 and 4 spots here, and the 5th spot will likely go to Manny Parra or Dave Bush. Honestly, we'd rather see them admit the mistake that was the Suppan signing and send him to the bullpen and use both Parra and Bush as full-time starters, but the likelihood of a middle-market team like the Brewers admitting a sunk cost on an investment (however ill-advised) as expensive as Suppan is extremely slim. So they've got six nominal starters, but no one to be especially excited for.

Bullpen: The same is true of the bullpen. Trevor Hoffman continues to break his own all-time saves record with every game he closes out, but he's 43. And that, if you're unclear, is never, ever a good thing for a professional athlete. LaTroy Hawkins is the setup man here, which let's just move on before we start laughing too hard to finish this; Carlos Villanueva (whom we still feel should be a starter for a team with enormous rotation deficiencies viz the Brew Crew) is a potent arm in the 'pen, and you could do worse than Todd Coffey. But David Riske and Schott Schoeneweis are has-beens, and unless Claudio Vargas proves that 2009 wasn't a fluke, there are not a lot of reliable options here. 

Overall: This team can hit with the best of them, but the pitching is lacking save for a few (ok, very few) bright spots. Yovani Gallardo, Carlos Villanueva, Claudio Vargas, and maybe Randy Wolf are the only really reliable arms here, which won't be enough to compensate for the impressive lineup that the latter-day Harvey's Wallbangers will be trotting out. 

Predicted Record: 77-85, 4th place NL Central

Beer: Miller High Life. Yeah, it's cheap and not, like, a good beer. But when it's ice cold (like the early season in Milwaukee) then it's an enormously refreshing brew (which is key come the humid Milwaukee winters). Plus, y'know, Miller sponsors their park, so there's that. And all of that was a prelude to the fact that this franchise probably won't have the money to retain the wonderfully talented - but prohibitively expensive - core of Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, and Yovani Gallardo. So...um...at least the beer is cheap!


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