Season Preview: Philadelphia Phillies

Well we've got 10 (we just realized that we've been counting down til April 5th. Because we're nothing if not attentive.) days left until Opening Day, which means it's season preview time. We'll be running it down team by team, with an added new wrinkle this time around: the beer of choice for fans of the team to enjoy whilst watching their team take the field! Nothing like that to help get you through a baseball season, especially if you're from Pittsburgh. Up next: the Philadelphia Phillies.


Lineup: The Phillies can hit the ball. That's this lineup summed up very briefly. Chase Utley is one of the best players in baseball, Ryan Howard is the premier power bat in the league, and Jayson Werth  has been one of the most productive outfielders in the league in the past few years (no word how his new beard will affect his play). Jimmy Rollins used to be in the this discussion before his abysmal 2009 season, but it's not out of the question to think that he will rebound this year. Shane Victorino has made his case to be included in the group of elite hitters from this lineup, and should continue to improve. Beyond that group, Raul Ibanez is a decent enough hitter for left field, and you could do worse than to have Placido Polanco at third. Carlos Ruiz - CHOOCH! - will be the backstop for this squad, and while he's not much with the bat, he's shown quite a bit of flair with the glove. Basically, this team will get their runs - as long as their key contributors stay healthy. Because like the Yankees, there is not a lot of depth to be had here.


Rotation: They did improve by swapping Cliff Lee for  Roy Halladay (ignoring all the other parts of the deal), but we're not so sure how good this group is going to be. Halladay and Hamels are a legitimate star-caliber 1/2, but to say that we have doubts about Joe Blanton, J.A. Happ, Kyle Kendrick, and Jamie Moyer is to put it lightly. Blanton showed an uptick in his strikeout rate recently, but we're not really buying it as he benefited from luck last season. Speaking of luck, Happ was extraordinarily lucky in 2009, and will be lucky to post a sub-4.50 FIP this season. Kendrick flat out doesn't have the skills to be in an MLB rotation, and Moyer, while he does have that veteran presence journalists love to write about, is in the same boat. 


Bullpen: This is something of a weak spot. Brad Lidge - he of the perfect season in 2008 (saves-wise, which take from that what you will) - was historically awful last season, and has a lot to prove in 2010. Ryan Madson was often Lidge's relief (which never bodes well when you're talking about, y'know, a relief corps), but he's not exactly the kind of pitcher you entrust with significant amounts of high leverage appearances. But then the same could be said about Danys Baez, J.C. Romero, Chad Durbin, Mike Zagurski, David Herndon and Antonio Bastardo. And in case you're wondering, no, that does not bode well for the Phitins.


Overall: The Phils can hit the cover off the ball, and their 1/2 starters are hard to beat. Beyond that, though, you're talking about a very flawed squad. A lot is going to have to go right for them to be the dominant team that we've seen in recent years, but even without that, they should be talented enough to win the division. If, however, either Halladay or Hamels (and we simply cannot wait for the silly double-H merchandise to be printed up) falters or gets injured, then this team could be in some real trouble.


Predicted Record: 91-71, 1st place NL East


Beer: Samuel Smith's Imperial Stout. A potent lineup, the Phillies are equal to the 9% ABV that we see from (Slammin') Sammy Smith's powerful brew. Plus, Smith's is one of, if not the, best Imperial Stout out there - and the same can be said of the Phillies. It's not an inspired choice, to be sure, but hopefully it's heavy enough to keep Philly fans' mouths shut so they can appreciate - instead of complain about - a great team.

MLB Jam: Final Four

Only four teams remain in this epic battle of the basketballing baseballers! The wheat has been separated from the chaff, the cream has risen to the top, and so on and so forth. In the AL side, it's a showdown of epic proportions between Joe Mauer's Twins and Matt Wieters' Orioles; in the Senior Circuit, Matt Kemp's Dodgers and Ryan Howard's Phillies were the NL's top dogs last season. Will the Dodgers make up for their playoff failings? Will the Phillies add another (imaginary) trophy to their mantle? Will the Mauer/Wieters showdown leave us all too utterly in awe to even tell you about it? Those answers, and more, are coming right up. As always, games to 21, 2's and 3's, call own fouls, and let's get a champ ee yun ship game squared away!

Game 1: (5) Minnesota Twins vs. (13) Baltimore Orioles
Players: Joe Mauer/Pat Neshek vs. Matt Wieters/Brian Matusz


The Orioles are the lowest seed to advance this far in tournament history (admittedly, perhaps not the most impressive record), and have done so on the strength of Matt Wieters' phenomenal swag. The Twins have overcome a pair of formidable title contenders (Rangers, Yankees) because of Joe Mauer's dominance. We don't mind saying that this has been the most hotly anticipated pairing of the tournament; it's a regular ratings bonanza (relatively speaking). And from the outset, neither team disappoints. It's a flurry of stunning crossovers, no-look assists, clean jumpers, and lockdown defense. Paradoxical? Maybe. Entertaining? You bet. The game stays deadlocked most of the way, until the Orioles start to pull ahead late as Matusz asserts his dominance over Neshek. The O's jump to a 19-16 lead, but Mauer ties it up from 3 after a crazy side-armed assist from Neshek that snakes through the legs of the unsuspecting Matusz. Tied 19-19, and unwilling to go through another epic showdown like they just had against, the Orioles were in a crucial spot. But there's a reason why Matt Wieters already has a Hall of Fame plaque and Joe Mauer doesn't. The thunderous game-winning alley-oop that he throws down isn't that reason, but it's pretty indicative, no? Orioles win, 21-19.

Game 2: (1) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. (2) Philadelphia Phillies
Players: Matt Kemp/Jon Broxton vs. Shane Victorino/Ryan Howard


These may be the top two seeds, but they certainly got here in strange ways. The Phillies won one game by virtue of playing only against 5'6'' Danny Ray-Herrera and another by the Rockies' rulebook recklessness, while the Dodgers advanced last round because of Matt Kemp's midget stripper. What we're saying is, this could go either way. The Dodgers size advantage seems to hurt them early, as Victorino, seemingly unencumbered by the ceremonial lei he's been insisting on wearing, darts around nimbly as ever, finishing around the rim and from the perimeter with equal aplomb. Kemp heats up from deep, though, draining a couple of three-pointers to put the Dodgers right back in it. Howard and Broxton wage a battle for the ages down on the blocks, trading subtle elbows and jostling constantly. Hook shots and drop step-layups abound from down around the basket, until as with the earlier game, we stand deadlocked at 19. Victorino had been somewhat quiet, seemingly worn down, but he turned on the jets and streaked past a flatfooted Kemp on the way to the hole...only to find himself yanked to the ground by the lei mid-triumphant dunk. FOUL! Which we don't remember, exactly, but we think that's the first one called. The crowd goes hushed, but applauds as Victorino gets up and heads to the line for his potentially game-clinching free throws...and of course sinks them both. But don't get too excited, Phillies fans - he celebrated by popping his new t-shirt line that he's been wearing to games. Sweet shirt, bro. Phillies win, 21-19.


Well, well, well, a couple of thrillers there! O's and Phitins for the 'ship...not too shabby if we say so ourselves. Let us play you out with the bracket to date:

MLB Jam: NL Semi-Finals

ARE YOU READY?!
WE SAAAAAID, ARE YOU READY?!
WE CAN'T HEEEEEEAAR YOU!!!!!

It's not often we get to say those things in public, and this is about as close as we're gonna get. So even though we clearly cannot hear you (or...can we...?) we're going to assume that you're as excited for the Final Four of the MLB Jam tournament to be unveiled. So why waste time? Games to 21, 2's and 3's, call own fouls, and LLLLLLLEEEEETTTT'S GET REAAAADY TOOOOOO play basketball.

We really need a hype man.

Game 1: (1) Los Angeles Dodgers vs. (12) Houston Astros
Players: Matt Kemp/Jon Broxton vs. Michael Bourn/Evan Engelbrook


Can we tell you a brief story? We're not really sure if it's blog-appropriate, but it's very relevant, we assure you. Matt Kemp, a.k.a. the anchor of that Dodgers squad (seriously; we don't think we remember writing one thing about what Broxton did beyond 'being big'), dates Rihanna. And it was her birthday over the weekend. We're sure you know where this is going, but play along: guess what he got her for the occasion!

We'll wait.

Did you guess 'midget stripper?' Cause if you did, well, we like having you around these parts. We say this story is relevant because we don't really comme on dit 'like' the Astros, and so in lieu of a game recap, you get a midget in leather lingerie. Trust us, it's better this way. Dodgers win by virtue of midget.


Game 2: (3) Colorado Rockies vs. (2) Philadelphia Phillies
Players: Dexter Fowler/Greg Reynolds vs. Shane Victorino/Ryan Howard


Some bad blood between these squads, because not only did Shane not get Dexter a midget stripper for his birthday, but the Rox and Phils have met in the playoffs two of the past three years.

Somehow those are related.

ANYWAY, the two squads appear fairly evenly matched because Fowler/Victorino are analogs and Reynolds, while he has a height advantage on Howard, surrenders quite a bit in the weight department. And so but what was supposed to be a compelling match full of drama and competitive basketball quickly turns into bizarre theater as Carlos Gonzalez suits up in place of Fowler and runs roughshod over Victorino and Howard. Unfortunately, this is what we like to call 'unabashed and thorough violation of the sacred MLB Jam covenant' (our rulebook is a real fun read), and the Phils aren't about to let that go. By virtue of Howard saying 'Hey, that's not Dexter Fowler!' the Rockies are forced to forfeit their ill-gotten gains. So much for Rock-bruary! Phillies win by forfeit and the Rockies are cheaters.


Well, that was different! But, hey, we have a final four! And somehow the 1 and 2 seed from the NL have made it out unscathed. Mauer! Wieters! Howard! Midget Stri- Kemp! It's the MLB Jam Final Four!

Why Your Team Will Blow it in the Playoffs: Philadelphia Phillies

Well, it appears that just about all the playoff spots are decided. Per the excellent coolstandings.com, no team among the Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers, and Rockies have a great shot of making the playoffs - barring a miraculous late season run, or the Rangers gelling together despite injuries and sneaking into the playoffs. 

Now, this lack of drama is no fun at all in September, and it's nigh-unacceptable in the playoffs. So rather than just let things play out like they will, which is to say "predictably," we're going to try to throw a wrench into the hopes and dreams of fans of each of the aforementioned playoff probables. Because none of them are the Braves. AND SO: onward with the hating. Up next: the WFC.

Biggest Strength: the middle of the order.  Chase Utley deserves to be at least mentioned in the MVP talk this year, even though Albert Pujols is the runaway winner.  He's played an excellent second base while mashing to the tune of a .296/.414/.542 line that's good for a .420 wOBA and making him already worth eight wins.  Jayson Werth has had a breakout year, slugging .519 and parking 33 HR - 2nd best on the team.  The leader in dongers, of course, is Ryan Howard, with 38.  His power production is actually down a little bit, but he's become a more balanced hitter, hitting .272/.350/.556 as compared to last year's .251/.339/.543.  Raul Ibanez, as everyone probably knows, hit something like 54 homers in the first half of the season and has come down a bit since, but he's still been good for a .382 wOBA, one point behind Howard. And Shane Victorino, the Flyin' Hawaiian, has added a potent bat (.300/.367/.460) to complement his excellent speed.  Those five have powered the Phillies to where they are right now.  

But Wait A Minute!

Didn't we forget someone, you might ask?  Well, no, we would tell you, because we're never wrong.  We would assume you're referring to former MVP Jimmy Rollins, and, well, he just hasn't been right all year.  He's going steal 30 bases, but he's actually cost the Phillies a run this year with his poor hitting, proving that while speed may never slump, it may suck.  Or something.  

Rollins' tough year isn't the only thing that's going to submarine the Phils, though.  Far from it!  For one thing, they don't have the lineup depth that, say, the Yankees do - after Utley, Werth, Howard, Ibanez, and Victorino, there aren't what you would call a lot of "quality" hitters on the roster.  Ben Francisco and Carlos Ruiz have hovered around an .800 OPS, but Francisco's only been around for 61 PAs, and Ruiz's contribution really only looks good because it comes from a thorougly mediocre group of guys - to wit, Eric Bruntlett, Matt Stairs, Chris Coste, John Mayberry, Greg Dobbs, and Paul Bako all have at least 85 PA. 

So if the Phils can't reliably outhit their opponent - admittedly a large logical leap considering the skill of their their five-man gauntlet - they're going to have to step it up in run prevention.  But can they?  Cliff Lee's a stud, and a recent rough patch (9+ ERA in his last couple starts, excluding last night) doesn't mean that he's in trouble, just that he had to regress from his utterly dominant first few starts as a Phillie.  So they've got themselves an ace.  After that, there's some quality to be had, but nothing overpowering.  Pedro Martinez has looked good since he joined the club* (5.67 K:BB, 3.65 FIP), but a high strand rate (86%) and a high age (38) hint at some regression.  Cole Hamels was great in last year's playoffs, but he's coming off of a career high in innnings (227), and has gone through some rough patches this year that have some wondering whether he's been focused enough on the season at hand.  Of course, that's the worst criticism we can find for the guy, since he's actually having essentially the same season as last year.  This surprised us, but it's true; check out the table.

Year	Age	Tm	ERA	GS	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA+	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB
2008	24	PHI	3.09	33	2	2	227.1	193	89	78	28	53	196	142	1.082	7.6	1.1	2.1	7.8	3.70
2009	25	PHI	4.21	28	2	2	169.0	181	81	79	22	37	147	102	1.290	9.6	1.2	2.0	7.8	3.97

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/16/2009.

His hit rate has gone up significantly, but that's partly due to a .343 BABIP.  That accounts for the increase in WHIP despite improved control, and his FIP of 3.77 is only five points higher than last year's.  So in reality, he's not as bad as he seems superficially, and he's not as good as he was in the playoffs.  Good enough guy to have as a number two starter, we suppose.  And the last spot will go to Joe Blanton, who's basically a league-average kind of guy.  He's learned how to strike guys out this year, posting  a career high 7.38 K/9 that easily bests his career total of 5.57.  The increase in strikeouts has come along with a large increase in the homers he gives up, though; his HR/9 of 1.51 is a tidy .5 greater than last year.  We'd say more, but, well, the talk of pitchers who give up lots of home runs reminds us of another Phillie that we're just chomping at the bit to write about.

*Did you know that in 1999, Pedro Martinez's banner year and arguably the greatest pitching season of all time, he had a .343 BABIP?  Jesus.  Let's revisit his line from that year.  

Year	W	L	W-L%	ERA	GS	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA+	WHIP	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	SO/9	SO/BB	Awards
1999	23	4	.852	2.07	29	5	1	213.1	160	56	49	9	37	313	243	0.923	6.8	0.4	1.6	13.2	8.46	AS,CYA-1,MVP-2

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 9/16/2009.

And he did that with batters getting absurdly LUCKY.  That sort of boggles the mind, no?

We hope you guessed that we're talking about the one, the only, Brad Lidge.  Which gives us a great excuse to use this picture again!

Teeeheeheeheeehee.  Sorry.  In any event, after Lidge blew his like 38th save this year, Charlie Manuel finally stopped running him out there and depriving us of much glorious schadenfreude.  Seriously, the guy's been historically awful; his -2.5 WXRL is the lowest of any pitcher EVER who got as many save opportunities as Lidge has this year.  Which is absurd considering that he's pitching for a division champion.  Fortunately for the Phils, Ryan Madson is there to...well, blow more saves.  Yay!  When you consider that Chan Ho Park leads this unit in WXRL at 1.996, you have to figure there's some reason for concern here.  If the pen keeps handing back leads, the offense and starters are going to have to compensate, and they're going to have little room for error.  When one or two of the big bats goes cold, when Joe Blanton starts serving up gopher balls and Pedro Martinez reverts to Mets form, when Eric Bruntlett fails to convert an unassisted triple play...the Phillies will blow it.

 

Carlos Pena: The Real Triple Crown Winner?

Today we were actually reading the ESPN Power Poll - it was a slow day, don't be so quick to judge - and they dropped this little nugget: Carlos Pena has 34 HR and 35 singles on the year.

Well, then we found out that Carlos Pena just hit another home run, extending his total to a league-leading 35.  Of course, the corollary to this is that he now has as many home runs as he does singles.  This is fairly remarkable given that we're nearing the end of August, yes?  

Now, since he leads the AL in homers and has an equal number of singles, the natural question to ask is: where does he rank in singles?  We're glad you asked that natural question because we did some research.  Take a guess at the answer!

Go on, guess.

Well, of players with at least 350 PA, Carlos Pena ranks second to last in singles.  His 35 juuuuust outstrips Jason Varitek's 34.  Of course, Pena has 518 PA to Varitek's 365 (a 153 PA advantage, if you don't like math), so if we merely raise the minimum PA to 400, well, then Pena's the big winner (loser?).  If you look at the NL also, there's guys like Chris Young, Jay Bruce, Chris Iannetta, Kelly Johnson, and Jason Giambi (a Rockie now), but they have either served time in the minors or on the bench as a punishment for their lack of contact hitting ways.  So we don't feel bad doctoring the answer a bit to anoint Pena at least the AL Champion of Not Hitting Singles.  Boy, that's a fun title for the mantle.  Let's see if we can't give him a little more credit.

Well, gee, looking at Pena's Baseball Reference page, we find that Pena also leads the AL in walks and strikeouts, with 81 (leading Jason Bay's 79) and 149 (5 better than Russell Branyan's 144), respectively.  So, what we have here is a guy who is on pace to win the Three True Outcomes Triple Crown in the AL.  

The Three True Outcomes, for those of you who don't know, are a walk, a strikeout, or a home run.  They are so named because they do not involve the defense at all - unless, we guess, there's a dropped strike 3 or something and the catcher has to throw the batter out.  But, essentially, there you are: the only three outcomes of a pitch that depend solely on the contributions of the hitter and the pitcher.  

The mention of the TTO reminds us of an article the inimitable Dr. Rany Jazyerli wrote for Baseball Prospectus some years ago - in 2000, to be exact.  In it, he examined the guys throughout history who've posted the highest TTO% - defined as (HR+BB+K)/(AB+BB).  A simple enough formula, and it yields reasonable results.  As of the writing of that article, the highest career TTO% belonged to Dave Nicholson, clocking in at a tidy 52.1%.  Other notable names on the list include Rob Deer, Jim Thome, Bo Jackson, Mark McGwire, Mickey Tettleton, and Jay Buhner.  The highest single season TTO% (min. 100 AB), in case you were wondering, belongs to Russell Branyan, with a whopping 61.2%.  

We're going to do a small exercise similar to that, which we're going to call TTOTC.  Catchy, right?  Basically we're going to look at all the seasons from 01-08 and see who's finished among the top 10 in their respective league in walks, strikeouts, and home runs.  This sorting of the players allows us to see who can do each of the three at a level such as they might compete for the TTO Triple Crown, hence the TC part of the acronym.  Which, we might agree with you, is a pretty terrible acronym anyway.  But bear with us for a moment.  Here are the guys:

2001: Jim Thome, Carlos Delgado, Troy Glaus, Sammy Sosa

2002: Sammy Sosa, Jim Thome

2003: Jason Giambi, Carlos Delgado, Jim Thome, Richie Sexson

2004: Adam Dunn, Jim Thome, Jim Edmonds, Alex Rodriguez 

2005: Richie Sexson, Alex Rodriguez, Adam Dunn

2006: Adam Dunn, Ryan Howard, Jim Thome, Alex Rodriguez, Troy Glaus

2007: Carlos Pena, Jim Thome, Ryan Howard, Adam Dunn

2008: Adam Dunn, Jack Cust, Carlos Pena, Jim Thome

We don't know about you but we're disappointed Thome didn't quite make it in '05, and surprised to see Alex Rodriguez on there once, let alone twice.

We then went through and figured out those guys' TTO% in the years where they were among the top 10 in each category.  Here are the top 10 such seasons...

Cust 08: .576
Thome 01: .542
Thome 02: .520
Dunn 04: .516
Dunn 06: .514
Dunn 08. .510
Howard 06: .504
Thome 07: .501
Pena 08: .500
Thome 06: .496

How does Pena's 09 season stack up so far?  Well, he's TTO'ing at a .524 clip, which would be the third best mark of this decade after Cust's 2008 and Thome's 2001 campaigns.  But what's really remarkable is that none of those guys - not only the top ten list, but anybody from the longer, year-by-year list up there - led their respective league in homers, walks, and strikeouts.  So not only is he having one of the best TTO seasons by percentage, but he could be the first slugger of this decade to win the Three True Outcomes Triple Crown.  And that, if you ask us, is a title we'd be much prouder to show off on our mantle.  

TL;DR version: No one this decade has been as prolific in the Three True Outcomes categories as Carlos Pena, and if he keeps it up, he'll win the first TTO Triple Crown of the 00's.