Season Preview: Los Angeles Dodgers

Well we've got 15 days left until Opening Day, which means it's season preview time. We'll be running it down team by team, with an added new wrinkle this time around: the beer of choice for fans of the team to enjoy whilst watching their team take the field! Nothing like that to help get you through a baseball season, especially if you're from Pittsburgh. Up next: the Los Angeles Dodgers.


Lineup: We're not entirely sure what to make of this group. On the one hand, Matt Kemp is one of the best outfielders in the business, and Andre Ethier has made big strides. Manny Ramirez rounds out this outfield, and while he's the big name, there are questions as to whether he can improve his performance after a lackluster end to the 2009 season. And this is where we get to the question marks: Rafael Furcal has been up-and-down as the shortstop for this squad; when healthy, he's been generally good, but that's hardly a sure thing at this point. Blake DeWitt is probably better than most second basemen, but he's in a competition with Ronnie Belliard, whom Joe Torre inexplicably saw fit to gift the postseason keystone job over Orlando Hudson - who's now a Twin. James Loney is probably an average first baseman, but is that good enough? Casey Blake is certainly in the decline phase of his career, and probably isn't the sort of guy you want manning the hot corner all season long; are they really comfortable with having Jamey Carroll be his backup? And, perhaps most importantly, what happened to Russell Martin? Martin had been one of the better catchers in the league before a shockingly precipitous decline last season - can he return to form, or is he a replacement-level player at this point? If the questions don't answer themselves in a good way - and make no mistake, they very well might do so - then this team could be headed for a bad decline.


Rotation: But it's not all doom and gloom in Chavez Ravine! Clayton Kershaw is one of the best young pitchers in baseball, and only figures to improve. Chad Billingsley has been an excellent #2 starter, and Hiroki Kuroda has performed admirably when healthy. And then...well, it gets kind of ugly. Vicente Padilla? Eric Stults? Those are not 4 and 5 guys. Charlie Haeger, the knuckleballer, deserves a shot at the rotation in our minds, and not just because we have a soft spot for knuckleballers; Haeger has demonstrated better control than most pitchers of his ilk, and, hell, why not give him a shot? Because after him, you're looking at guys like Ramon and Russ Ortiz, either of whom might well be the worst pitchers in MLB at this point, and Josh Towers, who besides being the only pitcher to wear a single digit number (you can read why here) is one of the few pitchers in competition for that lofty title held by the Ortizes. You know, this might actually be all doom and gloom for the Dodgers.


Bullpen: Ah, but then the bullpen. This is a very solid group. Jon Broxton is one of the better closers in the game, with a triple-digit heater and solid control to boot. George Sherrill is an excellent lefty arm, and Ramon Troncoso and Hong-Chi Kuo are two of the better late-inning options you could ask for. Plus, James McDonald and Ronald Bellisario gave them great years last season, and Jeff Weaver provides some innings-eating flexibility. It's odd for a division contender's biggest strength to be their bullpen, but, well, here you are.


Overall: A lot has to go right for the Dodgers to even approach last season's lofty win total (95). And it's odd that we feel that way, since very little has really changed here. But we're not especially confident in the lineup's ability to come together and be a force, nor their ability to overcome a breathtaking dearth of depth in the rotation. Their bullpen should be solid again, but we're extremely loath to rely on relievers repeating good performances, and it certainly shouldn't be the brightest spot on a team that has designs on a division title. 


Predicted Record: 87-75, 2nd place NL West


Beer: Anchor's Summer Beer. An American Pale Wheat Ale, it's a bit lacking in body, but has plenty of sweet taste. In this case, the sweet taste is Matt Kemp, Manny Ramirez and Andre Ethier forming a formidable lineup core and Clayton Kershaw and Jon Broxton shutting down opposing hitters. And...well, the 'lacking in body' is somewhat self-explanatory, no?

The All-Decade Team: Position Players

It's that time of...decade! Which is to say, it's the end of a ten-year period, which means it's the perfect time for retrospectives! And one of our personal favorite ways to do so is to create the all-decade team. It's going to be especially fun for us with the '00s since we weren't, you know, really making memories at the beginning of the last decade. But this time we've come prepared! So let's get to our choices for the best players of the decade at each position, which is the end-all be-all of teams and will in no way cause discussion or disagreement.

Some notes: Players considered for spots will be considered only on the body of their work this decade. They need not have played for the entirety of 2000-2009, but obviously, the more years the better. When we say MVP candidate, we mean that they placed in the top 20 of MVP voting. Other candidates are presented in order of finish. Also: due to some confusion, we'd like to point out that all stats that are referenced have been accumulated during the current decade. So e.g. Andruw Jones' 308 HRs are the HRs that he hit from 2000-present.

C: Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins. 2004-09 stats: .327/.408/.483, 136 OPS+, 3 batting titles, winner of '09 slash-stat triple crown.

Mauer played the least among the candidates here - accruing only 3000 PA - but his numbers have been so impressive that he wins anyway. Plus, if you cherry pick each candidate's best 5-year stretch, none of them are as good as Mauer. 2000-04 was the best such stretch for each catcher; Posada went .277/.391/.494, Rodriguez was .319/.366/.539 (132 OPS+), and Piazza tied Mauer's 136 OPS+ with a .292/.376/.539 line, but loses on the tiebreak due to Mauer's superior defensive ability. If you want to choose a candidate that played the full 10 years, that's fine with us, but for our money, Mauer's the best.

Other candidates:

Jorge Posada, New York Yankees. Decade stats: .283/.386/.492, 129 OPS+, 208 HR.

Ivan Rodriguez, Texas Rangers/Florida Marlins/Detroit Tigers/New York Yankees/Houston Astros. Decade stats: .298/.345/.477, 110 OPS+, 161 HR, 65 SB.

Mike Piazza, New York Mets/San Diego Padres (we'd forgotten!)/Oakland Athletics. Decade stats: .285/.360/.512, 127 OPS+, 3 Silver Slugger awards, 3rd-place '00 MVP voting.

1B: Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals. This is the easiest choice on the list. Allow us to remind you of his transcendent greatness: .334/.427/.628 career line. 172 OPS+, which is 6th all-time. Top-10 in MVP voting every year of his career, top-5 in 8 of 9 years, 3-time winner (including this season), and robbed of a 4th. Not counting his rookie year, he's never struck out more than 69 times in a season, and has walked more than he's struck out every season. And ohbytheway, he's done all this with an elbow that has probably needed Tommy John surgery for several years now. The guy's an all-timer.

Other candidates:

Todd Helton, Colorado Rockies. Decade stats: .331/.436/.569, 145 OPS+, 260 HR, 1.36 BB:K.

Lance Berkman, Houston Astros. Decade stats: .300/.413/.559, 148 OPS+, 309 HR, 74 SB, 6-time MVP candidate.

Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies. Decade stats: .279/.376/.586, 142 OPS+, 12.1 AB/HR (3rd all-time; 1st among actives)

And also Miguel Cabrera is really good. Didn't play enough to really qualify among the giants, but...he's really good.

2B: Jeff Kent, San Francisco Giants, Houston Astros, Los Angeles Dodgers. Decade stats: .300/.371/.518, 130 OPS+. MVP award, 4 Silver Sluggers. We're not considering his dubious clubhouse presence or Barry Bonds-alleged racism. We ARE considering, however, one of the best all-time seasons by a second baseman in 2000, and general excellence for the rest of the decade. His worst season was his last; as a 40-year old in 2008, he posted a 96 OPS+. Which, when you consider the fact that other candidates for this list are right around 100 OPS+ for their careers, is very impressive. That's ultimately what gives him the award over Chase Utley, who's been not quite as good with the bat but vastly superior with the glove. So we won't quibble if you choose Chutley.

Other candidates:

Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies. Decade stats: .295/.379/.523, 129 OPS+, 3x Silver Slugger (probably 4 with this year), 5-time MVP candidate, superb defender.

Ray Durham, Chicago White Sox/Oakland Athletics/San Francisco Giants/Milwaukee Brewers. Decade stats: .277/.354/.450, 107 OPS+, 132 HR, 122 SB.

Jose Vidro, Montreal Expos/Washington Nationals/Seattle Mariners. Decade stats: .303/.366/.452, 111 OPS+, '02 MVP candidate, Silver Slugger award, played for the Expos.

Yeah, second base is a weak group.

SS: David Eckstein just kidding

SS: Derek Jeter, New York Yankees. Decade stats: .317/.387/.456, 121 OPS+, 8-time MVP candidate, 3 Silver Sluggers, 219 SB. Yeah, yeah, yeah, intangibles, the Captain, calm eyes, whatever. That counts for nothing. What does count is that the dude can hit and run, and as of this past season, apparently learned how to use his glove. There's not really much more you could ask for from your shortstop.

Other candidates:

Miguel Tejada, Oakland Athletics/Baltimore Orioles/Houston Astros. Decade stats: .297/.347/.481, 116 OPS+, 7-time MVP candidate (1 win), 2x Silver Sluggers.

Michael Young, Texas Rangers. Decade stats: .302/.349/.449, 105 OPS+. 3-time MVP candidate, used to be a great, great fielder. Probably underrated, and yet that's all we can think to say about him.

Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia Phillies. Decade stats: .274/.329/.439, 97 OPS+, 326 SB (83% success), 5-time MVP candidate (1 win), Silver Slugger award. Is almost certainly overrated, but, well, there's little offense to be had at shortstop, and Rollins' speed and somewhat valuable defense pushes him above the pack.

3B: Alex Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners/Texas Rangers/New York Yankees. Decade stats: .304/.401/.587, 154 OPS+, 9-time MVP candidate (3-time winner), 7x Silver Sluggers, 434 HR, 179 SB (83% success). Another all-timer here, even if he did take steroids. In this decade, he's never posted less than a 130 OPS+, has hit 30+ HR each year, and done all of that while switching positions. Had he been a shortstop, he's probably the best shortstop to ever play; as a third basegentleman, he's merely one of the best ever.

Other candidates:

Chipper Jones, Atlanta Braves. .311/.415/.545, 148 OPS+, 6-time MVP candidate, 1.12 BB:K, our favorite player. If he stayed healthy, he'd be number one here.

Scott Rolen, Philadelphia Phillies/St. Louis Cardinals/Toronto Blue Jays/Cincinnati Reds. Decade stats: .285/.368/.497, 124 OPS+, averages 15.5 UZR/150, 1-time MVP candidate.

Adrian Beltre, Los Angeles Dodgers/Seattle Mariners. Decade stats: .272/.324/.459, 106 OPS+, great fielder, very durable (valuable considering the rest of the list), 1-time MVP candidate/Silver Slugger winner.

LF: Barry Bonds, San francisco Giants. Decade stats: .322/.517/.724, 221 OPS+. We're going to repeat those, because they are positively cartoonish. .322/.517/.724, 221 OPS+. That 221 OPS+ from 2000-2007 would be the 17th-best single season of all-time. His 2002, 2004, and 2001 seasons are the three-best of all-time, respectively. He set the single season record for home runs, with 73. His walk:strikeout ratio was a ridiculous 2.64. He set single season and career records for walks, both intentional and unintentional. After his 73-homer 2001, in which he struck out 93 times, he never again struck out more than 58 times. Discount it for steroids all you want, and he still dwarfs any challengers. But he did stop stealing bases, so, you know, there's that. The funny thing is, he'd be the starting LF for the 1990's team as well.

Other candidates, inasmuch as there are any:

Manny Ramirez, Boston Red Sox/Los Angeles Dodgers. Decade stats: .317/.419/.599, 160 OPS+, 7-time MVP candidate and Silver Slugger.

Gary Sheffield, Los Angeles Dodgers/Atlanta Braves/New York Yankees/Detroit Tigers/New York Mets. Decade stats: .294/.394/.527, 140 OPS+, 273 HR, 97 SB, 1.16 BB:K, 5-time MVP candidate, 3x Silver Slugger.

Luis Gonzalez, Arizona Diamondbacks/Los Angeles Dodgers/Florida Marlins. Decade stats: .288/.382/.508, 124 OPS+, 2-time MVP candidate, Silver Slugger, 1.1 BB:K.

CF: Jim Edmonds, St. Louis Cardinals/San Diego Padres/Chicago Cubs. Decade stats: .280/.389/.548, 140 OPS+, 5-time MVP candidate, Silver Slugger, 261 HR. Edmonds is a guy who would've had a backup role on the '9os team, but he shines here. He had more power than most players in the game, which is remarkable for a center fielder. He shone defensively, and could work a walk. Like Jeter at short, there's nothing else you could ask for from a center fielder.

Other candidates:

Carlos Beltran, Kansas City Royals/Houston Astros/New York Mets. Decade stats: .282/.363/.502, 121 OPS+, 5-time MVP candidate, 2x Silver Sluggers, excellent fielder.

Mike Cameron, Seattle Mariners/New York Mets/San Diego Padres/Milwaukee Brewers. Decade stats: .253/.342/.457, 111 OPS+, 221 HR, 208 SB (79% success), 2-time MVP candidate.

Andruw Jones, Atlanta Braves/Los Angeles Dodgers/Texas Rangers. Decade stats: .257/.339/.492, 112 OPS+, 5-time MVP candidate (2nd place in '06), Silver Slugger, 308 HR.

I know that leaving out Torii Hunter will be an unpopular choice, but he's just not as good as Cameron or Jones. Hunter doesn't get on base nearly as well as Cameron, doesn't approach Jones in power, has a lower OPS+ than both Cameron and Jones, and has gotten by on a defensive reputation that focuses on his SportsCenter highlights and not his actual negative defensive value since 2002 (-15 UZR).

RF: Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners. Decade stats: .333/.378/434, 118 OPS+, '01 Rookie of the Year/MVP, 7-time MVP candidate, 2x Silver Sluggers, best defensive right fielder in MLB. This was a surprisingly difficult field. In terms of Wins Above Replacement, Ichiro is the clear leader, with 38.8 to Vlad's 32.2, mostly because of Ichiro's vast defensive advantage. It's still hard to give the honor to a guy with a 118 OPS+, But he's stolen 341 bases with an incredible 90% success rate. He's got the single season record for hits, and has led the league in hits 6 times, including 4 straight years. He may yet get 3,000 in America, which is shocking considering that he came here at age 27. His OBP and SLG don't shine, but everything else is as good as it gets - and you get the feeling that if he wanted to draw more walks or hit more dongers, he could.

Other candidates:

Vladimir Guerrero, Montreal Expos/Los Angeles Angels. Decade stats: .323/.392/.569, 147 OPS+, 9-time MVP candidate (1 win), 6x Silver Slugger, 315 HR, 147 SB.

Bobby Abreu, Philadelphia Phillies/New York Yankees/Los Angeles Angels. Decade stats: .297/.402/.497, 132 OPS+, 216 HR, 295 SB, 5-time MVP candidate, 1-time Silver Slugger.

Magglio Ordonez, Chicago White Sox/Detroit Tigers. Decade stats: .316/.379/.523, 132 OPS+, 5-time MVP candidate, 3x Silver Slugger.

Season in Haiku: Los Angeles Dodgers

MannyBManny

Was Performance Enhancey;

They were still very good.

Why Your Team Will Blow it in the Playoffs: Los Angeles Dodgers

Well, it appears that just about all the playoff spots are decided. Per the excellent coolstandings.com, no team among the Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers, and Rockies have a great shot of making the playoffs barring a miraculous late season run.

Now, this lack of drama is no fun at all in September, and it's nigh-unacceptable in the playoffs. So rather than just let things play out like they will, which is to say "predictably," we're going to try to throw a wrench into the hopes and dreams of fans of each of the aforementioned playoff probables. Because none of them are the Braves. AND SO: onward with the hating. Up next: the Dodgers.

The Dodgers have been the runaway favorite in the NL West all year long.  And with good reason: they had performed so well last year, especially after adding Manny Ramirez, and it didn't look like there was any team in the division that could hang with them.  The team got off to a roaring start, and continued playing dominant ball even after Ramirez was suspended 50 games for steroid use.  They've played fairly mediocre ball for most of the second half, but a recent surge shows that their enormous run differential was for real.  

Biggest Strength: The outfield.  It's an odd choice, since they're only allowing 3.74 runs/game, best in MLB.  But looking at their pitching...beyond Clayton Kershaw and maybe Jonathan Broxton, none of it seems super studly.  So let's look at the outfield, where they boast three superstar-level producers: Manny Ramirez, Andre Ethier, and Matt Kemp.  Ethier's .885 OPS is the lowest of the trio, yet he leads the team in dongers with 31.  Kemp could go 30-30 this season; he's already got 34 steals and is just four homers away from achieving the feat.  And, of course, you've got MannyBManny in left.  Stripping away all of the hyperbole about his being able to hit the ball where he wants to, when he wants to, you're still left with a damn good player.  Of course, that sort of goes without saying, but still: a .298/.422/.551 line and a team-best .405 wOBA impresses even further.  He lags his outfield counterparts in counting stats because of the 50 missed games, but he's every bit as dangerous as he was last season.  Together, these three make up a dominant core of the lineup that can put up enough runs by themselves to win a game.

But wait a minute!

We know that we mentioned that the Dodgers have been the best in baseball at preventing runs.  And we want to emphasize the brilliance of young Clayton Kershaw, who's struggled a bit with his command (~5 BB/9), but has been K'ing almost 10 per nine.  He's the staff ace, and he heads a solid group of hurlers mainly composed of Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, and Randy Wolf.  And as for the bullpen,  Jonathan Broxton has been an overpowering force this season, striking out 13.5 per nine, while boasting a a K:BB ratio of over 4.  

You might ask, then, why is their pitching going to be their downfall?  Well, it's similar to the Yankees' situation: you have a lot of quality guys, but not a lot in the way of people about whom you feel totally, indubitably confident in their ability to win a game for you every time out.  So, like we did with the Bronx Bombers, let's go pitcher by pitcher here and see what's what.

LHP Clayton Kershaw: We love the 21 year old.  We think he's got the ability to be a dominant pitcher, and he's shown that quality frequently this season.  But on the other hand...he's 21.  He's already thrown nearly 60 innings more than last season, and the club has demonstrated concern over his workload as the season winds down.  His control has gotten worse - from 4.3 to 4.9 BB/9. He's succeeded by missing bats, and we have to wonder if he can keep doing that when he's not facing the NL West and his innings have been piling up.

RHP Chad Billingsley: Billingsley has been something of a disappointment this season.  After fantastic turns in the last two seasons, he's seen his ERA rise over 4 and his strikeouts decrease by nearly 30 despite only 10 fewer innings to this point.  He's also been dealing with the injury bug of late, having most recently been seen coming out of the bullpen to get some innings in.  We're not saying that a return to the ace form he's demonstrated in the past is out of the question, but an ERA+ that's dropped from 135 to 103 is cause for concern.

LHP Randy Wolf: Wolf has been shockingly good this year.  This has been the best year of his career, and it's not particularly close. He's been getting it done this year by limiting walks - he's a full walk/9 below his career average and his WHIP is a career-best 1.09.  He's also posted a career best in ERA+ at 129, and is allowing only 7.5 hits/9, again a full hit below his average.  Furthermore, he's tossed 200 innings for the first time since 2003.  That right there is both a good sign and a red flag (Red sign?  Good flag?).  On one hand, he's shown that he can be durable for a full season, and be effective in so doing.  On the other, you have the same issue as you do with Kershaw: having established this huge jump in innings from seasons past, can he keep pitching as effectively as he has with his arm wearing down?  Looking at his health history, it's hard to say yes.  

RHP Hiroki Kuroda: Kuroda's back from an ugly looking liner off the head, which is bittersweet for us.  We're glad he's ok, but we're not glad that Charlie Haeger no longer has a rotation spot.  Woe is him.  In any event, when he's been healthy this year, he's been pretty excellent.  He's a control master, with a K:BB near 5, and an FIP of 3.26.  He's stranded just 66% of baserunners, well below the ~75% league average, so he'll likely see that number improve. Yet he's still a 114 OPS+, which is great for the back end of your rotation, but not the sort of number that suggests a capacity to dominate.  In any event, as with Wolf, at this point in his career, we just don't know if you can count on him for major innings.  He's not thrown many pitches this season, since he's been hurt, but even in the shortened format of the playoffs, we doubt his ability to go deep into games and provide the bullpen with any sort of rest.  And given the overall fragile nature of this rotation, it looks like they're going to be leaning on that bullpen quite a bit.

So since that's the case, the bullpen bears a quick examination as well.  Broxton, as mentioned, has been excellent.  But, as closer, he sees limited opportunities.  To wit, Ramon Troncoso and Jeff Weaver (!) have thrown more innings for the Dodgers this season. Troncoso's been very good though, with a WXRL over 3, and in the top 100, you'll also find James McDonald and, of course, Jeff Weaver (!!).  So the bullpen should be a strength of this team, what with having four capable arms ready to handle the late innings.  And yet...it's a bullpen.  With the small number of innings that they'll throw in the postseason, anything could happen.  And, yes, we're grasping at straws here.  The truth of the matter is that this is a stacked team that could very easily play into November...you know, if their pitching doesn't implode, as it easily could.  And, yes, that's a big 'if,' Dodgers fans.  One that will invariably cause them to blow it in the playoffs.