Season Preview: Boston Red Sox

Well we've got 27 days left until Opening Day, which means it's season preview time. We'll be running it down team by team, with an added new wrinkle this time around: the beer of choice for fans of the team to enjoy whilst watching their team take the field! Nothing like that to help get you through a baseball season, especially if you're from Pittsburgh. Up first: the Boston Red Sox.


Lineup: The success of this lineup, to us, hinges on David Ortiz. And since we keep saying that he's done as a good ballplayer, we are sort of obligated to say that we think they're going to disappoint. There's some really good talent and depth here, on the corners and up the middle, but aside from Kevin Youkilis and Victor Martinez, the team is lacking any star-level bats. They're solid through and through, though, as there's not really a weak spot anywhere. Ellsbury, Cameron, Drew, Hermida, Pedroia, Beltre...fine players, all of them, and good enough for the team to be in serious contention. We just don't expect them to win too many games with their bats. Which is fine, because...


Rotation: The rotation is seriously good and boasts plenty of depth as well. Jon Lester and John Lackey are a fantastic 1-2, Josh Beckett is well-suited to a #3 spot, and Clay Buchholz looks more than ready to dominate on a regular basis. So when he's your number four guy, and your biggest problem entering the season is having to get innings for Daisuke Matsuzaka, Tim Wakefield, Junichi Tazawa and maybe Michael Bowden...you're pretty well set. Combine that with the defensive upgrade realized by bringing in Beltre and Cameron, as well as shifting Ellsbury to left, and you're looking at one of the best run prevention teams going.


Bullpen: Jonathan Papelbon looked to be on the decline last season, relying too much on his fastball (see e.g. the ALDS when he throw 17 straight) and simultaneously struggling with his command. But even if he continues to regress, there's plenty more power arms in the cabinet, particularly Daniel Bard and Manny Delcarmen. Hideki Okajima has been an effective lefty for several years now, and they've got plenty other prospective guys to pick from to fill out the remaining innings. We don't know that you can call this area a real strength, as the control of the group as a whole is less than stellar, but they shouldn't be an Indians-level disaster.


Overall: The Red Sox look well poised to compete again in the tough AL East. We don't want to say the division could be just as easily belong to the Yankees as well as the Sox or Rays, but it's awfully close to that kind of distribution of talent. If Ortiz rebounds - but he won't! - and the bullpen holds, expect the Sox to be playing into October.


Predicted Record: 92-70, 3rd place


Beer: Sam Adams Boston Lager. Whatever. Drink it up, and try not to choke when you're singing Sweet Caroline for the 5 millionth time (once for each dollar that Jason Varitek will earn this year to hit about as well as a Girl Scout). Or go ahead and choke. Either way.

Miscellaneous Spring Training Inanity: Exhibit A

We're on the record as being unhappy about the results of trying desperately to find a good storyline when there's no regular season to be had. Spring Training is somewhat of an exception to that line of thought, because it's the end of a long offseason, and we start to see our favorite players in uniform, and we have highlights of games, and it's exciting and hopeful. So we go out looking for little news articles here and there about what sort of interesting things are going on around the league...and we end up with reporting that is inconsequential at best and irresponsible at worst.

Now, far be it from us to decry the state of baseball writing when (a) there's not much going on of substance to write about, and (b) we've spent a substantial amount of time over the last like month imagining a 2-on-2 basketball tournament among MLBers. But still...we clicked over to espn.com for a brief baseball fix amidst studying, and found some articles that really ground our gears. What follows is what we hope becomes a regular feature: a fairly shameless ripoff of the FJM style of writing - i.e. find a dumb article and make fun of it. If you haven't already been there, shame on you, but check out www.firejoemorgan.com. They're not still active, but the archives are plenty of fun to sort though, and they're a fairly big influence on us, so we recommend the site wholeheartedly. Anyway, in their spirit, let's get to the fisking! Columnists' words are in bold; we're in regular font. Because, y'know, true to the roots!

Exhibit A: A Scratch-less Fivesome, by Jerry Crasnick

What does that even mean, you might ask? Well, if you've read any number of Spring Training articles, you might know that it's about that whitest of all sports...

Golf was a wonderful bonding ritual for Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz in Atlanta

So there you go. A shoehorned-at-best headline that immediately leads into a comparison of the best rotation in modern times. Surely the Angels will be so gifted, yes?

Bridging the fashion gap in the clubhouse might be their biggest challenge.

Well, never mind the improved Mariners and Rangers lineups. And the generally stiff competition in the American League. Or, hell, MLB hitters in general. 

[Joe] Saunders, a 2-handicapper, brought his sartorial A-game to the park. Before dressing for Wednesday's workout, he took a retina-searing ensemble of electric chartreuse shirt and blue plaid pants with gold stripes and hung it in front of his locker.

We don't actually know what chartreuse is, but we're fairly sure that if Jerry Crasnick says it's retina-searing, then the pitchers should probably not look. Their jobs may be at stake!

When Lackey signed a five-year, $82.5 million contract with Boston, the dynamic suddenly changed. If you gave the Angels a buck every time they've heard that the team now lacks a true No. 1 starter, it would cover a lot of $2 Nassaus. 

We don't actually know what a Nassau is, but why pick that as the reference? And, yes, we're too busy to simply Google this business. But it's because most of our time is spent wondering why Mr. Crasnick is writing an article about how the Angels rotation will be better because their best pitcher left and they don't have a replacement. If you're an Angels fan, we hope Nassau is alcoholic. And if it is, rest assured it will go in your season preview around these parts.

"For me, it's not, 'You're the No. 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5.' It's about winning. Period," [pitching coach Mike] Butcher said. "I don't want our guys focused on getting 200 innings. I want them getting 33 starts and trying to win 33 games. That's their mindset."

"For me, it's like, all these guys aren't especially good so we just hope they stay healthy enough to provide some value. And, oh, did I mention that we're going to play 3 extra games this season?"

One thing the Angels have is variety. The rotation consists of three righties and two lefties, Kazmir and Saunders. Weaver is a rangy 6-foot-7, 205 pounds, while Kazmir, listed at 6-feet, 190, is the most compact pitcher of the group.

Oh good! Variety! That'll help! Hitters will be baffled when they see Jered Weaver striking an imposing 6'7'' figure on the mound instead of that 6'0'' pipsqueak Kazmir. TOTALLY UNEXPECTED!

None of the five pitchers is as outwardly expressive as Lackey, whose bulldog bona fides were substantiated during a mound encounter with his manager during Game 5 of the American League Championship Series against the Yankees in October. When Lackey looked up and saw Scioscia coming out to pull him from the game, the TV cameras caught him mouthing an epithet and pleading several times, "This [game] is mine."

Well, fortunately for Mike Scioscia, his starters are apparently going to be lucky to get out of the fifth inning of any game anyway, so if they yell at him, no one will care. Plus, bulldogs are kind of terrifying sometimes. Who wants to deal with that? Not Mike Scioscia, we bet.

A Lackey supporter might have viewed the emotional display as a sign of competitiveness, but you could make the case that Lackey was also putting his manager in a bind. Even Saunders, a friend of Lackey, questioned whether the gesture was proper baseball etiquette.

"John might have known it was his last game as an Angel and he wanted to go out on a good note," Saunders said. "He was consistent -- he pretty much wore his emotions on his sleeve no matter what the game was.

"But you still have to respect the manager and his decision. I was brought up not to show any emotion on the field regardless of how I do or what happens. I might talk to [Scioscia] in the locker room afterwards. On the field, there's no place for that."

We know that was a long clip...but let's recap. In the paragraph before these three, Mr. Crasnick was all like "BULLDOG! YEAH!" and then in the next three 'graphs, the people he was interviewing were all like "Well, Lackey was kind of a dick, and we didn't really think he was in the right to yell at the manager for making the right decision." Conflict!

Kazmir feels invigorated in Anaheim for two reasons: He hooked on with a new trainer and made it through a killer workout regimen in Houston in the offseason; and he's reunited with Butcher, his former pitching coach in Tampa Bay.

Oh, so Kazmir is in The Best Shape Of His Life, you might say?? How delightfully cliche! Also, it's worth mentioning that Kazmir had steadily declined in Tampa Bay, to the point that they shipped him across the country to LA. But, hey, Mike Butcher!

"He'll benefit me a lot," Kazmir said. "He saw me when I was doing good, when I was feeling right and throwing the ball max effort. Now that he sees me throwing like a robot, he can take a step back and say, 'This is what you need to do. This is what I remember."'

Because if there's one good piece of advice to give to young pitchers with a history of arm troubles, it's 'throw max effort.'

"The only time you need a No. 1 guy is on Opening Day and for the playoffs." [Jered Weaver said.]

Yes, the playoffs. When John Lackey was leading the staff, the Angels came to expect they would be playing baseball deep into October every year. Just because he's on the opposite side of the country, don't expect that to change.

First of all, Mr. Crasnick, the focus of this article was how the team's best pitcher departed. Second of all, the best reasons you gave for their improving because of this was that (a) they have poor fashion choices (b) they drink lots of cheap drinks that we've never heard of (c) they vary in height from 6'0'' to 6'7'', and (d) Scott Kazmir is reunited with the guy whose philosophy of 'just throw the ball as hard as you can' led him to have a great season and then steadily decline into poor control and arm issues. 

And, third of all, the bit about Kazmir immediately preceded a paragraph about how Mike Scioscia is always coy about his #1 starter and that quote from Weaver about how they don't care who's #1. Fix your transitions, sir!

Why Your Team Will Blow it in the Playoffs: Los Angeles Angels

Well, it appears that just about all the playoff spots are decided. Per the excellent coolstandings.com, no team among the Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers, and Rockies have a great shot of making the playoffs barring a miraculous late season run.

Now, this lack of drama is no fun at all in September, and it's nigh-unacceptable in the playoffs. So rather than just let things play out like they will, which is to say "predictably," we're going to try to throw a wrench into the hopes and dreams of fans of each of the aforementioned playoff probables. Because none of them are the Braves*. AND SO: onward with the hating. Up next: the behaloed Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

*Believe you us, we fully realize that the Braves - and the Twins! - are only two games back at this point.  But, in the superstitious spirit of baseball, you can be sure we're not changing that intro unless one of those teams wrests control of a playoff spot away from the Rockies and/or Tigers.

Biggest Strength: The lineup.  This group scores a healthy 5.49 runs per game,  2nd most in MLB.  Kendry Morales would be a stealthy MVP candidate in any other year, with a hefty .303/.352/.565 line, and Torii Hunter finds himself rejuvenated this year to the tune of .297/.363/.507.  Catcher Mike Napoli* has posted a fine .832 OPS, and Bobby Abreu isn't far behind, with a .828 mark to go with what must be new legs that have allowed him to steal 29 bases at a 78% success rate.  

*Napoli, to us, is another confounding decision re playing time that the Angels have made.  For years, he and Jeff Mathis essentially had equal playing time, despite the fact that Napoli quickly proved himself a far, far more effective bat.  And,  of course, their glut of outfielders meant that the Angels had to find time at DH for some of those guys, further limiting one of their better young hitters.  But then, they have a history of doing such things.  Off the top of our head, we've got: Kendrick, Howie (play him while he's healthy, guys!); Izturis, Maicer (better than Erick Aybar, yet reduced to shared playing time); and Wood, Brandon (outlandishly good in the minors, never given a real chance to prove himself in the bigs).

The real strength of this unit, though, is not their big bats - it's their overall depth.  They don't have a lot of guys who seem particularly scary at the plate, but they are all effective.  Their .346 wOBA well outstrips the league average of .329, and their team batting average (don't yell at us!) is a tied-for-the-league-lead .285.  No one boasts a .400 OBP, but the team OBP is the 2nd highest in the league, and they only have three players clocking in under the league average of .333 - and of that three, Juan Rivera misses by .002 points, and Robb Quinlan just barely makes the 100 PA minimum (102).  Basically, it's hard to find such a balanced lineup among playoff contenders anywhere outside of New York.  

But wait a minute!

Sure, they can score...but they can't really prevent runs that well.  They allow 4.75 runs per game, which is 20th in MLB.  This is the lowest rank in either runs scored or runs allowed that any team in postseason contention (including the Braves and Twins) has posted.  And the reason is not too hard to find: beyond John Lackey, Jered Weaver, and maybe Kevin Jepsen and Darren Oliver, there simply have not been many good pitching performances this year.  The team ranks 12th in MLB in UZR, so defense isn't a real problem, but a 4.52 FIP that ranks 23rd in the league certainly is.  Among the starters, Lackey and Weaver both come in under 4.00 in FIP, but that's offset by the fact that Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders are both over 5.00.  Further, only Weaver ranks among the top 50 in SNLVAR.  And the problem extends past the rotation; they rank among the MLB's bottom 10 in K/9, HR/9, and WHIP.  Three of their relievers are allowing a full HR/9 or more; Sean Sullivan "boasts" a rather astounding 2.22 per 9.  Also, for what this is worth, the team's net WXRL is 9.02, or less than the combined work of Michael Wuertz and David Aardsma* alone.  

*Yes, we realize we're being somewhat mean-spirited here; both Wuertz and Aardsma are having fine seasons, and each possesses one of the best pitches in the game.  Wuertz's slider is absurdly unhittable (~50% whiff rate) and Aardsma has finally managed to control his overpowering (25.8% whiff rate) fastball.  But still.  

So, to recap: team can hit + team can't pitch = team will blow it (probably in remarkable fashion) in the playoffs.  Simple as that, folks.  For our money, the interesting thing about the Angels' postseason will be how they make the Red Sox look like the Big Red Machine in the first round of what is certain to be an inglorious October showing.