Season Preview: Los Angeles Angels

Well we've got 17 days left until Opening Day, which means it's season preview time. We'll be running it down team by team, with an added new wrinkle this time around: the beer of choice for fans of the team to enjoy whilst watching their team take the field! Nothing like that to help get you through a baseball season, especially if you're from Pittsburgh. Up next: the Los Angeles Angels.


Lineup: This is a pretty solid group. There are three major question marks by our estimate: Juan Rivera, Brandon Wood, and Hideki Matsui. Rivera struggled to recover from a broken leg a few seasons ago, and hasn't been the same hitter since; Wood has been one of the preeminent AAA sluggers for years now and is finally getting a starting shot, and Matsui, even as a DH, has done little to prove that he can be healthy for a full season. As for the rest, the Angels are stronger up the middle than most teams, with the bats of Mike Napoli, Erick Aybar, Howie Kendrick, and Torii Hunter all above average for their respective positions. Cuban defector Kendry Morales broke out last season putting up MVP-caliber numbers, and should remain a middle-of-the-order force, and Bobby Abreu can probably be counted on for a nice OBP and some steals if he's got anything left in his legs. Reggie Willits is a nice fourth outfielder who can step in for either Abreu or Rivera if they underperform; Willits has plus speed and knows how to take a walk.


Rotation: There's nothing wrong with the rotation, per se. There's just not much in the way of clear greatness or depth. Jered Weaver is the nominal ace, and he's very good, but he's not exactly the sort of bro you want being your #1 starter. Scott Kazmir showed signs of regaining his 2006 form after being traded to Los Angeles, and if he can find his slider again, he could be a force...but we don't count on that. Joel Pineiro, the guy they signed ostensibly to replace departed ace John Lackey, showed that he can burn worms with the best of them last season, and is super stingy with the walks. He might suffer a bit coming over to the AL, but he should be comfortably above average nonetheless. Ervin Santana has been a mystery for years now, boasting bizarre splits - if he pitches at home, at night, he's flat-out dominant, but put him on the road during the day and he's back of the rotation fodder - but he'll be 27 and is only one year removed from garnering minor Cy Young consideration. Then there's Joe Saunders, whom we have no faith in (strikes out too few, walks too many). That's it. Five guys. And, no, none of the trio of Sean O'Sullivan, Matt Palmer, or Jose Ortega count as actual depth here. 


Bullpen: The Angels let Francisco Rodriguez walk before last season and replaced him with Brian Fuentes. Which was an unmitigated disaster. Fuentes was awful yet somehow, some way, managed to compile a league-leading save total. Oh, wait, we know why: it's because being The Closer and getting Saves has little-to-no bearing on your actual talent. Silly us. Anyway, they signed Fernando Rodney - somehow extracting him from the Metrodome mound - to be the setup man, but Rodney's not very good either. So you've got two Closers at the back end of the 'pen, but neither are very good. They do have Scot Shields, who's very good and one of the most consistent relievers we've ever seen, but he lost the 2009 season with arm and knee troubles, and is hardly a sure thing at this point. Beyond him, guys like Jason Bulger and Kevin Jepsen are decent enough, we suppose. And they have another Francisco Rodriguez coming up! So that's exciting! All told, though, this is a pretty weak group.


Overall: If this team stays healthy, they could be contenders in a suddenly-stacked AL West. They can hit from top to bottom, with depth up the middle and in the outfield, and their five starters should at least keep them in games, if not outright win them. But if any of the starters go down with an injury - or Joel Pineiro regresses, and Ervin Santana fails to improve - then there's going to be serious trouble on the pitching side. This team isn't tremendous in the field, and will need their pitchers to be sharp in order to build safe enough leads for the shaky bullpen to hold. Can they do so? Sure. After all, the Angels have been outperforming expectations for years, now. It's some weird sort of voodoo they've got, or something. But we think this is the year it stops.


Predicted Record: 86-76, 2nd place AL West


Beer: Stone's Arrogant Bastard Ale. Not that Mike Scioscia or Tony Reagins are bastards, mind you, but it takes a certain arrogance to run this team the way that the Angels do. Scioscia has them stealing bases like it's their job (it kind of is), and Reagins has carried on the Bill Stoneman-bred tradition of keeping the team's prospects close to the vest, as if to say 'our guys are better than yours.' Arrogant? Sure. Has it worked, year after year? You bet. Excellent team, excellent beer.

Why Your Team Will Blow it in the Playoffs: Los Angeles Angels

Well, it appears that just about all the playoff spots are decided. Per the excellent coolstandings.com, no team among the Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers, and Rockies have a great shot of making the playoffs barring a miraculous late season run.

Now, this lack of drama is no fun at all in September, and it's nigh-unacceptable in the playoffs. So rather than just let things play out like they will, which is to say "predictably," we're going to try to throw a wrench into the hopes and dreams of fans of each of the aforementioned playoff probables. Because none of them are the Braves*. AND SO: onward with the hating. Up next: the behaloed Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

*Believe you us, we fully realize that the Braves - and the Twins! - are only two games back at this point.  But, in the superstitious spirit of baseball, you can be sure we're not changing that intro unless one of those teams wrests control of a playoff spot away from the Rockies and/or Tigers.

Biggest Strength: The lineup.  This group scores a healthy 5.49 runs per game,  2nd most in MLB.  Kendry Morales would be a stealthy MVP candidate in any other year, with a hefty .303/.352/.565 line, and Torii Hunter finds himself rejuvenated this year to the tune of .297/.363/.507.  Catcher Mike Napoli* has posted a fine .832 OPS, and Bobby Abreu isn't far behind, with a .828 mark to go with what must be new legs that have allowed him to steal 29 bases at a 78% success rate.  

*Napoli, to us, is another confounding decision re playing time that the Angels have made.  For years, he and Jeff Mathis essentially had equal playing time, despite the fact that Napoli quickly proved himself a far, far more effective bat.  And,  of course, their glut of outfielders meant that the Angels had to find time at DH for some of those guys, further limiting one of their better young hitters.  But then, they have a history of doing such things.  Off the top of our head, we've got: Kendrick, Howie (play him while he's healthy, guys!); Izturis, Maicer (better than Erick Aybar, yet reduced to shared playing time); and Wood, Brandon (outlandishly good in the minors, never given a real chance to prove himself in the bigs).

The real strength of this unit, though, is not their big bats - it's their overall depth.  They don't have a lot of guys who seem particularly scary at the plate, but they are all effective.  Their .346 wOBA well outstrips the league average of .329, and their team batting average (don't yell at us!) is a tied-for-the-league-lead .285.  No one boasts a .400 OBP, but the team OBP is the 2nd highest in the league, and they only have three players clocking in under the league average of .333 - and of that three, Juan Rivera misses by .002 points, and Robb Quinlan just barely makes the 100 PA minimum (102).  Basically, it's hard to find such a balanced lineup among playoff contenders anywhere outside of New York.  

But wait a minute!

Sure, they can score...but they can't really prevent runs that well.  They allow 4.75 runs per game, which is 20th in MLB.  This is the lowest rank in either runs scored or runs allowed that any team in postseason contention (including the Braves and Twins) has posted.  And the reason is not too hard to find: beyond John Lackey, Jered Weaver, and maybe Kevin Jepsen and Darren Oliver, there simply have not been many good pitching performances this year.  The team ranks 12th in MLB in UZR, so defense isn't a real problem, but a 4.52 FIP that ranks 23rd in the league certainly is.  Among the starters, Lackey and Weaver both come in under 4.00 in FIP, but that's offset by the fact that Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders are both over 5.00.  Further, only Weaver ranks among the top 50 in SNLVAR.  And the problem extends past the rotation; they rank among the MLB's bottom 10 in K/9, HR/9, and WHIP.  Three of their relievers are allowing a full HR/9 or more; Sean Sullivan "boasts" a rather astounding 2.22 per 9.  Also, for what this is worth, the team's net WXRL is 9.02, or less than the combined work of Michael Wuertz and David Aardsma* alone.  

*Yes, we realize we're being somewhat mean-spirited here; both Wuertz and Aardsma are having fine seasons, and each possesses one of the best pitches in the game.  Wuertz's slider is absurdly unhittable (~50% whiff rate) and Aardsma has finally managed to control his overpowering (25.8% whiff rate) fastball.  But still.  

So, to recap: team can hit + team can't pitch = team will blow it (probably in remarkable fashion) in the playoffs.  Simple as that, folks.  For our money, the interesting thing about the Angels' postseason will be how they make the Red Sox look like the Big Red Machine in the first round of what is certain to be an inglorious October showing.