Season in Haiku: Florida Marlins

Hanley's a star, and

New stadium on the way.

But no one will come.

Season in Haiku: Detroit Tigers

Oh, man, you blew it.

Like, really, really, badly.

We just...we're sorry.

Season in Haiku: Colorado Rockies

Farewell, Clint Hurdle.

Playoffs? Don't talk bout...playoffs?!

This ain't 07.

Programming Change

Posting's been dead around here because we've moved our act over to www.mlbnotebook.com 

We'll still be writing over here from time to time, including the last Why Your Team Will Blow it, and more Seasons in Haiku.  Because we're nothing if not crowd pleasers.

Why Your Team Will Blow it in the Playoffs: Colorado Rockies

Forget the regular introduction. If you've been reading this series at all, you know that we're previewing this year's playoff teams, and telling you why they're going to fail.  Our target this time?  The Colorado Rockies.

Biggest Strength: The lineup.  This is a very patient team, with only three guys that get regular playing time posting sub-10% walk rates (Carlos Gonzalez, 9.1%, Clint Barmes, 5.1%, Ryan Spilborghs, 8.5%).  Troy Tulowitzki, Todd Helton, Seth Smith, Carlos Gonzalez, and Brad Hawpe have each been studly this year, with the lowest OPS among that group being Gonzalez's .886.  Chris Iannetta has great power for a catcher, and Ian Stewart and Clint Barmes have demonstrated good power despite low batting averages.  Dexter Fowler, the speedy rookie, has shown a plate approach beyond his years, as his OBP is a full 100 points above his BA.  Basically, this is a lineup that's skilled from top to bottom, and boasts great depth throughout all the positions.  Oh, and this is unrelated, but...Ubaldo Jimenez has been pitching like a superstar.  He's the second best pitcher in the NL West (Lincecum, Tim - get familiar), but he's not far behind Carpenter and Wainwright out in St. Louis in terms of performance.

But wait a minute!

Um...well...ok, we're sort of at a loss.  This sort of seems like a team without a chink in the armor.  They're top 10 in MLB in both runs scored and prevented (6th and 8th, respectively), and with good reason: all of their starters has had a very good and - with the exception of Aaron Cook missing some time - very healthy seasons.  This has been a team with amazing continuity among their rotation ranks.  Their lineup has been very good, despite Garrett Atkins' having forgotten how to play baseball effectively.  They've coaxed a banner year out of oft-injured Huston Street, and Franklin Morales has been exceedingly effective in Street's absence.

But hey, we're here to hate on Roxtober.  So let's point out this extreme oddity: only eight (8) pitchers on their entire roster have thrown 40+ innings.  And that includes five (5) starters.  So manager Jim Tracy trusts only three (3) of his relievers: Huston Street, Franklin Morales, and...wait...no...seriously?  Josh Fogg?  You've got to be kidding us.  Josh Fogg, of the 5.05 career ERA?  The guy who's had 1,158 innings to prove that he's a below league-average pitcher?  We demand an invite to the next Rockies tryout.

Speaking of guys who have demonstrated a remarkable turnaround since coming to Coors Field, how about Jason Marquis?  Let us be up front here: we have no good feelings for Jason Marquis.  We wish nothing but ill upon him.  First a petulant prospect for the Braves, then an underperforming, overpaid starter for the Cubs, Marquis has done just about everything he can to win his way out of our hearts. And yet...he comes to the most famous hitters' haven in recent memory, and becomes a stud?  Not on our watch, buddy.  Let us show you why he's going to be a fairly epic failure in October: he can't strike anybody out (4.75 K/9).  He can't control his pitches (3.31 BB/9).  He's stranding a below-league average 70.7% of baserunners.  His FIP this season is .72 runs below his career average.  He's barely approached his 212 IP this season since 2005's 207 IP.  And he posted a 6.02 ERA in 33 starts with the Cardinals!  WHY ISN'T HE REMEMBERING THAT HE'S AN AWFUL PITCHER?!  Our prediction is that he'll do precisely that in the playoffs.  And since he's been among the league leaders in wins, Jim Tracy will likely be only too happy to stick him in the rotation ahead of a more deserving pitcher - any of Aaron Cook, Jorge de la Rosa, or Jason Hammel.  

And for that matter, Aaron Cook could fail just as easily as Marquis.  For a couple years now, he's proven that he can be effective in Coors Field thanks to his extreme groundball tendencies.  But the guy can't stay healthy, and he's gotten in just two starts since a recent shoulder strain.  He's looked sharp in those two starts, but do you trust him in the playoffs?  Can he stay healthy for a prolonged run, especially given that his shoulder's already been weakened? And how about Jason Hammel, a Rays' castoff?  He has been very good this year, though this is the first time he's thrown over 100 IP (174 this year)in his MLB career.  He's been hittable (201 H in 174 IP), though he has demonstrated above-average control (3.12 K:BB).  Unfortunately for him, many of those hits have been dongers - he's got a .88 HR/9 this year, and a career rate of 1.11.  Someone's going to hit a key gopher ball off of him.   And as for Jorge de la Rosa, he's quite adroit at missing bats (9.35 K/9), but he doesn't really have a feel for his command (4.1 BB/9, 1.40 WHIP). 

Honestly, if we didn't dislike them so much for beating out the Braves for the Wild Card (as it was said in Happy Gilmore, you will NOT sweep the Dodgers, ya JACKASSES! Or something like that.  It's been awhile since we've seen it.), we'd be jumping all over this bandwagon.  We can't fathom how their pitchers have managed to be so effective this year, but...they have.  They've got depth in their lineup that no team in the National League can match.  Their rotation has been healthy and effective, which most teams merely dream of.  Their bullpen, though little-used, has enough talent not to squander games.  They...well, they scare us.  We don't know if we're ready for another Roxtober so soon.  So, um, if Jason Marquis, Jason Hammel, and Jorge de la Rosa could go ahead and revert to their old, ineffective forms...well, that'd be just great.

Guhhhh

http://www.ajc.com/sports/atlanta-braves/braves-eliminated-then-lose-152379.html

We're never jinxing the Braves' late-season runs again.  

Don't Forget Your Gloves

We're sure that you've already heard plenty about how MLB teams have been placing an increased emphasis on defense of late.  This is due in part to a revolution in defensive evaluation: as more and more batted ball data emerges, defensive statistics have become increasingly useful and accurate, and teams have been able to reap the benefits.  The Rays became the poster child for this movement after they essentially reversed their record from a last-place 66-96 to a pennant-winning 97-65.  While this was not due entirely to defense, one of the major changes that ownership brought about was to place the emphasis on defense that saw them rise from a third-worst -6.5 UZR/150 in 2007 to 2nd-best 11.0 in 2008 (it also seems worth mentioning that the only team better was the Phillies, at 14.8, and we all know how that ended).   

That said, let's take a look at who's shown the biggest improvements on defense this season.  We're going to use FanGraphs' UZR/150 as our quick and dirty stat, though we admit that it has its flaws, as does any defensive metric.  In any event, who's pulled a Tampa this season?  

UZR Change 08-09

One general note: it's interesting that so many of the teams that were near the bottom of the pack in '08 showed the greatest improvements in '09.  There's two ways to look at this development.  Optimistically, you could say that the front offices of these teams are smart, recognized that they could stand to improve on defense, then took steps to correct the problem.  Or, we guess you could just point out that since they started low, they had nowhere to go but up.  To which we say: you a dark, dark person.  

In any event, the top of the list isn't very surprising.  Detroit, Seattle, and Texas are three teams that everyone knew was making a newfound commitment to defense.  The Tigers brought in Adam Everett and haven't had to suffer Carlos Guillen and Miguel Cabrera's defensive stylings.  Franklin Gutierrez, Endy Chavez, and Ichiro make up the best defensive outfield in the game, and Adrian Beltre is no slouch.  Even the Rangers have talked all season about making a commitment to defense, perhaps best evidenced by their willingness to rush glove wizard SS Elvis Andrus to the bigs at the tender age of 20.  But we'd never have guessed about the Reds and Pirates.  What happened there?

In Cincinnati, they've got an outfield that is similar to the Mariners' group in terms of defensive excellence.  Among guys with 300 innings, Drew Stubbs, Willy Taveras, Jay Bruce, and Laynce Nix have been flat out excellent.  They've only got three guys posting negative ratings, and Edwin Encarnacion's -17.2 is now Toronto's problem.  Plus, Joey Votto (-1.3 at 1st base) and Adam Rosales (-0.9 at 3rd) are hardly huge liabilities.  This is an overall solid group that, if they could hit and/or pitch, would be great.

There's a different story out in the Burgh, though.  Their two best defenders, Nyjer Morgan (+24.1) (!) and Jack Wilson (+17) are gone, and they've got serious defensive holes with 2B Delwyn Young, SS Ronny Cedeno, and RF Garrett Jones.  This is a case where you see the leftover contributions of the dearly departed having an unfairly positive effect on the team as a whole.  

So after that negative note, let's take a look at the bottom part of this chart.  The Mets really stand out, as they've gone from pretty good to abysmal.  However, even we can't hold them fully responsible for this drastic defensive decline; after all, as has been the case with every other facet of their season, the amount of injuries they've suffered has greatly affected their ability to play with their desired alignments.  It's not their fault, for example, that Anderson Hernandez and Alex Cora have played a lot of shortstop.  But some of their guys really are just outright bad defenders (see: Wright, David; Sheffield, Gary; Castillo, Luis; Francoeur, Jeff (ha!)).  So this ranking is not entirely undeserved.

The Phillies have regressed quite a bit, but it can be hard to maintain the level of excellence that they established last season.  For what it's worth, the entire roster of regulars (300+ innings) is basically solid but unspectacular at defense; Chase Utley leads the club with a +8.7 mark, and Shane Victorino is the only subzero straggler, with a -3.8 rating.  

For people that are searching for reasons as to why the Cubs have disappointed this year, one to point to could be their defensive shortcomings.  Milton Bradley was pretty bad in the outfield - we know, Milton, we're singling you out and there's a negative atmosphere in this blog, but you're a DH in the NL - but not nearly as bad as Alfonso Soriano, who's been one of the worst left fielders in the game.  Jake Fox has seen too much time at third base, but Aramis Ramirez is no great shakes with the glove himself, and Mike Fontenot hasn't contributed much in the way of...well, anything, really, but he's been really bad at defense.  Guy's got a great baseball card, though. 

So what do we take away from all of this?  Well, improving defense isn't guaranteed to make you a contender, but it's an effective, affordable way to upgrade your club.  Or at least it was affordable; as it becomes a more valued, quantifiable skill, teams are going to pay more for premium defenders.  It's the Moneyball concept: teams could win on the cheap by identifying inefficiencies in the player market and exploiting them.  For a few years, that inefficiency was OBP; of late, it's defense.  But as teams start paying and playing guys like Adam Everett, Elvis Andrus, Endy Chavez and Adam Dunn (still paying attention?) who are offensive zeros but save enough runs to be valuable, it's going to be time to find another inefficiency.  Our prediction?   Soon you'll be hearing about how the Rays/Rangers/Other Upstart Team have been great because all their hitters are otherworldly bunters.  That'll be a fun couple of seasons.

Why Your Team Will Blow it in the Playoffs: Los Angeles Angels

Well, it appears that just about all the playoff spots are decided. Per the excellent coolstandings.com, no team among the Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers, and Rockies have a great shot of making the playoffs barring a miraculous late season run.

Now, this lack of drama is no fun at all in September, and it's nigh-unacceptable in the playoffs. So rather than just let things play out like they will, which is to say "predictably," we're going to try to throw a wrench into the hopes and dreams of fans of each of the aforementioned playoff probables. Because none of them are the Braves*. AND SO: onward with the hating. Up next: the behaloed Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.

*Believe you us, we fully realize that the Braves - and the Twins! - are only two games back at this point.  But, in the superstitious spirit of baseball, you can be sure we're not changing that intro unless one of those teams wrests control of a playoff spot away from the Rockies and/or Tigers.

Biggest Strength: The lineup.  This group scores a healthy 5.49 runs per game,  2nd most in MLB.  Kendry Morales would be a stealthy MVP candidate in any other year, with a hefty .303/.352/.565 line, and Torii Hunter finds himself rejuvenated this year to the tune of .297/.363/.507.  Catcher Mike Napoli* has posted a fine .832 OPS, and Bobby Abreu isn't far behind, with a .828 mark to go with what must be new legs that have allowed him to steal 29 bases at a 78% success rate.  

*Napoli, to us, is another confounding decision re playing time that the Angels have made.  For years, he and Jeff Mathis essentially had equal playing time, despite the fact that Napoli quickly proved himself a far, far more effective bat.  And,  of course, their glut of outfielders meant that the Angels had to find time at DH for some of those guys, further limiting one of their better young hitters.  But then, they have a history of doing such things.  Off the top of our head, we've got: Kendrick, Howie (play him while he's healthy, guys!); Izturis, Maicer (better than Erick Aybar, yet reduced to shared playing time); and Wood, Brandon (outlandishly good in the minors, never given a real chance to prove himself in the bigs).

The real strength of this unit, though, is not their big bats - it's their overall depth.  They don't have a lot of guys who seem particularly scary at the plate, but they are all effective.  Their .346 wOBA well outstrips the league average of .329, and their team batting average (don't yell at us!) is a tied-for-the-league-lead .285.  No one boasts a .400 OBP, but the team OBP is the 2nd highest in the league, and they only have three players clocking in under the league average of .333 - and of that three, Juan Rivera misses by .002 points, and Robb Quinlan just barely makes the 100 PA minimum (102).  Basically, it's hard to find such a balanced lineup among playoff contenders anywhere outside of New York.  

But wait a minute!

Sure, they can score...but they can't really prevent runs that well.  They allow 4.75 runs per game, which is 20th in MLB.  This is the lowest rank in either runs scored or runs allowed that any team in postseason contention (including the Braves and Twins) has posted.  And the reason is not too hard to find: beyond John Lackey, Jered Weaver, and maybe Kevin Jepsen and Darren Oliver, there simply have not been many good pitching performances this year.  The team ranks 12th in MLB in UZR, so defense isn't a real problem, but a 4.52 FIP that ranks 23rd in the league certainly is.  Among the starters, Lackey and Weaver both come in under 4.00 in FIP, but that's offset by the fact that Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders are both over 5.00.  Further, only Weaver ranks among the top 50 in SNLVAR.  And the problem extends past the rotation; they rank among the MLB's bottom 10 in K/9, HR/9, and WHIP.  Three of their relievers are allowing a full HR/9 or more; Sean Sullivan "boasts" a rather astounding 2.22 per 9.  Also, for what this is worth, the team's net WXRL is 9.02, or less than the combined work of Michael Wuertz and David Aardsma* alone.  

*Yes, we realize we're being somewhat mean-spirited here; both Wuertz and Aardsma are having fine seasons, and each possesses one of the best pitches in the game.  Wuertz's slider is absurdly unhittable (~50% whiff rate) and Aardsma has finally managed to control his overpowering (25.8% whiff rate) fastball.  But still.  

So, to recap: team can hit + team can't pitch = team will blow it (probably in remarkable fashion) in the playoffs.  Simple as that, folks.  For our money, the interesting thing about the Angels' postseason will be how they make the Red Sox look like the Big Red Machine in the first round of what is certain to be an inglorious October showing.  

Why Your Team Will Blow it in the Playoffs: Los Angeles Dodgers

Well, it appears that just about all the playoff spots are decided. Per the excellent coolstandings.com, no team among the Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers, Angels, Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers, and Rockies have a great shot of making the playoffs barring a miraculous late season run.

Now, this lack of drama is no fun at all in September, and it's nigh-unacceptable in the playoffs. So rather than just let things play out like they will, which is to say "predictably," we're going to try to throw a wrench into the hopes and dreams of fans of each of the aforementioned playoff probables. Because none of them are the Braves. AND SO: onward with the hating. Up next: the Dodgers.

The Dodgers have been the runaway favorite in the NL West all year long.  And with good reason: they had performed so well last year, especially after adding Manny Ramirez, and it didn't look like there was any team in the division that could hang with them.  The team got off to a roaring start, and continued playing dominant ball even after Ramirez was suspended 50 games for steroid use.  They've played fairly mediocre ball for most of the second half, but a recent surge shows that their enormous run differential was for real.  

Biggest Strength: The outfield.  It's an odd choice, since they're only allowing 3.74 runs/game, best in MLB.  But looking at their pitching...beyond Clayton Kershaw and maybe Jonathan Broxton, none of it seems super studly.  So let's look at the outfield, where they boast three superstar-level producers: Manny Ramirez, Andre Ethier, and Matt Kemp.  Ethier's .885 OPS is the lowest of the trio, yet he leads the team in dongers with 31.  Kemp could go 30-30 this season; he's already got 34 steals and is just four homers away from achieving the feat.  And, of course, you've got MannyBManny in left.  Stripping away all of the hyperbole about his being able to hit the ball where he wants to, when he wants to, you're still left with a damn good player.  Of course, that sort of goes without saying, but still: a .298/.422/.551 line and a team-best .405 wOBA impresses even further.  He lags his outfield counterparts in counting stats because of the 50 missed games, but he's every bit as dangerous as he was last season.  Together, these three make up a dominant core of the lineup that can put up enough runs by themselves to win a game.

But wait a minute!

We know that we mentioned that the Dodgers have been the best in baseball at preventing runs.  And we want to emphasize the brilliance of young Clayton Kershaw, who's struggled a bit with his command (~5 BB/9), but has been K'ing almost 10 per nine.  He's the staff ace, and he heads a solid group of hurlers mainly composed of Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, and Randy Wolf.  And as for the bullpen,  Jonathan Broxton has been an overpowering force this season, striking out 13.5 per nine, while boasting a a K:BB ratio of over 4.  

You might ask, then, why is their pitching going to be their downfall?  Well, it's similar to the Yankees' situation: you have a lot of quality guys, but not a lot in the way of people about whom you feel totally, indubitably confident in their ability to win a game for you every time out.  So, like we did with the Bronx Bombers, let's go pitcher by pitcher here and see what's what.

LHP Clayton Kershaw: We love the 21 year old.  We think he's got the ability to be a dominant pitcher, and he's shown that quality frequently this season.  But on the other hand...he's 21.  He's already thrown nearly 60 innings more than last season, and the club has demonstrated concern over his workload as the season winds down.  His control has gotten worse - from 4.3 to 4.9 BB/9. He's succeeded by missing bats, and we have to wonder if he can keep doing that when he's not facing the NL West and his innings have been piling up.

RHP Chad Billingsley: Billingsley has been something of a disappointment this season.  After fantastic turns in the last two seasons, he's seen his ERA rise over 4 and his strikeouts decrease by nearly 30 despite only 10 fewer innings to this point.  He's also been dealing with the injury bug of late, having most recently been seen coming out of the bullpen to get some innings in.  We're not saying that a return to the ace form he's demonstrated in the past is out of the question, but an ERA+ that's dropped from 135 to 103 is cause for concern.

LHP Randy Wolf: Wolf has been shockingly good this year.  This has been the best year of his career, and it's not particularly close. He's been getting it done this year by limiting walks - he's a full walk/9 below his career average and his WHIP is a career-best 1.09.  He's also posted a career best in ERA+ at 129, and is allowing only 7.5 hits/9, again a full hit below his average.  Furthermore, he's tossed 200 innings for the first time since 2003.  That right there is both a good sign and a red flag (Red sign?  Good flag?).  On one hand, he's shown that he can be durable for a full season, and be effective in so doing.  On the other, you have the same issue as you do with Kershaw: having established this huge jump in innings from seasons past, can he keep pitching as effectively as he has with his arm wearing down?  Looking at his health history, it's hard to say yes.  

RHP Hiroki Kuroda: Kuroda's back from an ugly looking liner off the head, which is bittersweet for us.  We're glad he's ok, but we're not glad that Charlie Haeger no longer has a rotation spot.  Woe is him.  In any event, when he's been healthy this year, he's been pretty excellent.  He's a control master, with a K:BB near 5, and an FIP of 3.26.  He's stranded just 66% of baserunners, well below the ~75% league average, so he'll likely see that number improve. Yet he's still a 114 OPS+, which is great for the back end of your rotation, but not the sort of number that suggests a capacity to dominate.  In any event, as with Wolf, at this point in his career, we just don't know if you can count on him for major innings.  He's not thrown many pitches this season, since he's been hurt, but even in the shortened format of the playoffs, we doubt his ability to go deep into games and provide the bullpen with any sort of rest.  And given the overall fragile nature of this rotation, it looks like they're going to be leaning on that bullpen quite a bit.

So since that's the case, the bullpen bears a quick examination as well.  Broxton, as mentioned, has been excellent.  But, as closer, he sees limited opportunities.  To wit, Ramon Troncoso and Jeff Weaver (!) have thrown more innings for the Dodgers this season. Troncoso's been very good though, with a WXRL over 3, and in the top 100, you'll also find James McDonald and, of course, Jeff Weaver (!!).  So the bullpen should be a strength of this team, what with having four capable arms ready to handle the late innings.  And yet...it's a bullpen.  With the small number of innings that they'll throw in the postseason, anything could happen.  And, yes, we're grasping at straws here.  The truth of the matter is that this is a stacked team that could very easily play into November...you know, if their pitching doesn't implode, as it easily could.  And, yes, that's a big 'if,' Dodgers fans.  One that will invariably cause them to blow it in the playoffs.

The Importance of Being Bobby

Bobby Cox is set to retire after next season.

And that depresses us.  Despite the repeated failings at bullpen management, which usually irks us beyond all good reason, we find ourselves forever defending the guy.  He's the one concession we make to the idea that amorphous, intangible qualities can make a team better.  And it's easy to see why; he's done so many good things for the team.  Players have always seemed to love him, and it's a sentiment he's always returned.  Headcases (e.g. Gary Sheffield, J.D. Drew) and franchise soldiers (e.g. Chipper Jones and John Smoltz*) alike have have found a comfortable clubhouse under Bobby's eye.  He won all those division titles, oversaw a remarkable worst-to-first turn in the beginning of his second stint as Braves' manager, and brought home a World Series title**.  He stayed with the organization for 25 years in a climate when managers and players alike were moved around like so many fungible chess pieces (though, really, he was hired thrice and fired twice).  He became a franchise icon, and a symbol of the Old Baseball Man throughout the league.  Fiercely loyal to his players, he never publicly called them out for poor performance; all such grievances were handled in-house, dedication to the team that netted him three Manager of the Year awards.  Bobby was a players' manager, a man of the people, who nevertheless established himself as the head of the team.

*Part of the reason Bobby's leaving, it's been reported, is that he was/is furious over GM Frank Wren's handling of the Smoltz situation this offseason.  And so were we.  We've touched on it before, but...you can't shell out a couple million bucks to keep a still-effective franchise icon around?  We know the rotation's fantastic.  We know that it's the one thing that's been keeping us in "contention.  But is it really so hard to find innings for a guy like Smoltz?  It's not like they'd have been counting on him.  Ugh.

** The trophy for which is called the Commissioner's Trophy, and really needs a better name.  And probably a new design as well, but let's start with the easy things.  Some thoughts, most of which are at least partly serious: the Landis Trophy (1st baseball commish; though we'd then have to rename the MVP Award), the Steinbrenner Trophy (love him or hate him, he's an icon as an owner), the McCarthy Trophy or the Stengel Trophy (both managers have the record for most Series victories), or the Veeck Trophy (what better publicity stunt?).

And yet...there is the discomforting side of Bobby.  The side that you remember when opposing fans' jeers remind you of his domestic battery charge.  The side that shows itself in his on-field tantrums that, you suspect, are not entirely disparate from the aforementioned domestic violence issue.  Is it, you wonder, a deep-seated anger issue that has reared its head more than just that one night in 1995?  Are we seeing very personal problems made very public on the field, for the 160th time?  

And so but then, as is the way in sports, all of those doubts about a man's character are washed away through celebration of the sporting deity: wins.  And Bobby's got plenty on his side his 2,408 are the fourth-most of all time, and he's won 54% of the time throughout his 24 year career.  That's 2,408 reasons why we can feel comfortable enough with him to call him simply 'Bobby;" 2,408 reasons why we think there must be some demented sort of rhyme and/or reason to his bizarre bullpen handling; 2,408 reasons why we'll be enormously sad to see him go.

Perhaps part of this sadness comes from the fact that Braves fans are accustomed to consistency; season after season after season ended with a division title, a trip to the playoffs, and, yes, there was often crushing disappointment at the end. But regardless, Bobby was there, at one moment adroitly guiding the team and another raging out onto the field on creaky knees to make a scene.  This comforted us.  Almost like Cubs fans, we clung to the Wait Til Next Year mantra, because we always knew there would be hope the next year.  And not the blind optimism bred of spring time, but of legitimate, we-can-do-it-this-time hope. Hope that, in large part, existed because of Bobby.  So now, as the Braves languish in the Wild Card race, we'll turn once more, and for the last time, to the hope inherent in that number 6.  And we'll try not to remember that it's a hope once constant, now eminently impermanent.